The Chinese Communist Party's top leadership is undoubtedly well-placed. They had already mapped out the US presidential election situation two or three weeks in advance, with an accuracy comparable to that of bookmakers in the UK and US. Beijing's top Party and government officials have already mapped out their next steps in the trade war with the US, including reducing food imports from North America and lowering potential tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles like Tesla. They're considering whether Tesla's owner, Elon Musk, is a multi-million dollar donor to Trump, potentially giving these US multinationals with manufacturing bases in China a break.
Of course, Trump's relatively easy victory this time has far-reaching implications. Trump is a highly skilled political poker player, but he often makes bold statements and plays by the rules. For example, he has repeatedly warned Ukraine that the United States and NATO members will reduce their economic and military aid. He hopes Ukraine and Russia will reach an agreement to "give up territory in exchange for peace," meaning that Kyiv would recognize Moscow's ownership of parts of southern and eastern Ukraine in exchange for a ceasefire. This agreement might stipulate that these Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine will hold referendums in a few years to finalize their sovereignty. However, this is a risky approach, as Ukraine already has the upper hand in certain areas, and Moscow has a history of not abiding by international agreements. More importantly, anti-Western alliances such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Alliance (particularly the so-called CRINK, which includes anti-Western zealots like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) are striving to replace the United States as the dominant force in international values and diplomatic, financial, and trade models. US allies, including NATO countries, will not easily change their measures to crack down on Russia and the CCP. Trump's chances of escaping this predicament simply by relying on his friend, Vladimir Putin, to issue blank checks are slim.
