The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of the war in the Middle East, is causing a historic surge in kerosene prices and a sharp rise in airfares, particularly in Africa.
According to S&P Global, approximately 70% of African aviation fuel imports transit through this strategic strait. Since the end of February, fuel transport from Gulf refineries has been virtually paralyzed, depriving the market of 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
The price of kerosene has surged 76% since the start of the conflict, reaching $171 a barrel – more than double the price projected for January 2, 2026 (source: Platts index). Faced with this price surge, airlines like Kenya Airways have announced fare increases to try to absorb the shock.
Major airlines across the continent (EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Kenya Airways, etc.) are suffering heavy losses: flight cancellations to the Middle East, increased operating costs, and unsustainable pressure on their profit margins. The crisis now threatens the profitability and continuity of flights on several key routes.
Outlook: Analysts fear a prolongation of the crisis if the strait remains blocked, with cascading repercussions on global air transport and the African economy.
