Benin will elect its new president on Sunday; Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni appears to have a guaranteed victory after orchestrating a decade of economic growth in this West African country, despite jihadist attacks in the north.
Nearly eight million voters are called to the polls to elect the successor to Patrice Talon, who is leaving office after two five-year terms and has given his support to Wadagni to succeed him.
The turnout rate will be a determining factor after a lackluster campaign marked by voter apathy.
Backed by the two main parties in power, Wadagni is facing Paul Hounkpe, an opposition figure whose campaign has been very discreet and who had to rely on the help of majority MPs to obtain the parliamentary support necessary for his registration on the electoral lists.
"There can be no real enthusiasm; for that, there would need to be a debate and each side would have to believe in its chances," said Rufin Godjo, political analyst.
The main opposition party, the Democratic Party, is not fielding a candidate, as its leader, Renaud Agbodjo, failed to secure the required number of parliamentary endorsements to run in the elections.
“I will not vote, this election is not open to everyone. We cannot talk about a real democratic competition when certain key political actors are excluded,” said Arnold Dessouassi, a 39-year-old teacher.
The ruling majority attributes the exclusion of the democrats to internal divisions. Several prominent figures in the party have joined Wadagni's campaign.
"The discontented have not disappeared. Tensions and frustration remain high; their electoral hopes have been dashed," Godjo said, speaking of the voters.
The golden decade
The next elections in Benin will not take place until 2033, as a constitutional reform adopted last year extended the presidential term from five to seven years and harmonized the electoral calendar so that all elections take place by that date.
A crucial question for many concerns the approach the next president will take regarding civil liberties, after the authoritarian turn taken by Talon, under whose regime many opponents were sentenced to heavy prison terms for various offenses.
Hounkpe, for his part, promised to release the "political prisoners".
The country experienced rapid growth during the Talon decade: GDP doubled, growth exceeded 6% annually, tourism developed, and numerous infrastructure projects were completed.
As the architect of this evolution, the result of his ten years spent at the Ministry of Finance, Wadagni embodies continuity.
Main challenges
But major challenges remain, including a considerable gap between the haves and the have-nots.
"The next step in the country's development will be to eradicate extreme poverty. This is one of his priorities," said one of Wadagni's close associates.
The poverty rate is estimated at over 30% and many Beninese lament that the benefits of economic growth over the past ten years have not reached them.
Benin's economic growth will also depend on the restoration of security and stabilization of the country.
Northern Benin is gripped by increasingly deadly jihadist violence, perpetrated mainly by Al-Qaeda's Sahelian branch, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Very active in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, JNIM has recruited fighters and carried out deadly raids against the army in this less developed region of Benin.
If elected on Sunday, Wadagni should be able to count on the loyalty of the army, which played a decisive role in suppressing the attempted coup against Talon in December.
