The report in which they said that Iran now has a new deterrent tool through its control of Strait of Hormuz, and they considered that Iran may emerge from the war with a tool that makes its enemies think twice before moving against it, no matter what restrictions are imposed on its nuclear program.
The newspaper said that the United States launched its war against Iran on the pretext that it would one day become a nuclear power, and therefore would have a deterrent weapon against any future attacks.
However, the Islamic Republic possesses a deterrent weapon it has never used before: its geographic location. Iran's decision to assert control over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, has led to global economic hardship, manifested in soaring prices for gasoline, fertilizer, and other essential commodities.
Iran possesses a deterrent weapon it has never used before: its geographic location. Its decision to control navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has led to global economic hardship.
This also upended war plans in the United States and Israel, forcing officials to devise military options to regain control of the Strait from Iran. While the US-Israeli war inflicted damage on Iranian military capabilities and vital infrastructure, it did little to diminish Iran's ability to control the Strait. Therefore, Iran may emerge from this conflict with a plan of action for its government to keep its adversaries in check, regardless of any restrictions imposed on its nuclear program.
The newspaper quoted Danny Citrinovitch, former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence and current fellow at the Atlantic Council, as saying: “Everyone now understands that in the event of a future conflict, closing the Strait will be Iran’s first priority.” He added: “There is no defeat on the ground.”
On Friday, US President Donald Trump posted several messages on his Truth Social platform stating that the strait he referred to as the "Iran Strait" was "completely open" to navigation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi made a similar statement. However, on Saturday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that the waterway remained closed, indicating a division between the Iranian military and civilians on this issue during negotiations aimed at ending the war.
Despite the idea that there are sea mines which would be sufficient to deter commercial ships, Iran has the means to control the strait through attack drones and short-range missiles.
US military and intelligence officials estimate that weeks into the war, Iran still possesses about 40% of its arsenal of attack drones and more than 60% of its missile launchers, enough to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the future.
Reopening the strait, which was open at the start of the war, became a key objective of the US-led military campaign against Iran. Its closure is embarrassing for the United States, a fact understood by Iran and other US adversaries.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and deputy chairman of the Russian National Security Council, wrote on social media last week: “It is not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will proceed. But one thing is certain: Iran has tested its nuclear weapons, and its name is the Strait of Hormuz, and its potential is inexhaustible.”
President Trump declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to its closure and targeted Iranian ships in ports. This week, the US Navy began forcing cargo ships to return to Iranian ports after they had transited the strait.
Iran responded angrily, and even sarcastically, with one of the Iranian diplomatic missions, which has been posting satirical messages on the X platform since the war, writing about Trump's move: "The Strait of Hormuz is not a social media platform. If someone blocks you, you can't simply block them back."
The dispute over the strait has been the focus of numerous AI-generated videos depicting American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.
Araghchi said the strait was open, but the Revolutionary Guard announced that the waterway remained closed, indicating a division between the Iranian military and civilians on this issue.
The newspaper reports that the impact of the US blockade is palpable, given that maritime trade represents approximately 90% of Iran's economic output, or roughly $340 million daily, and this flow has almost completely ceased in recent days. Iran considers the blockade an act of war and has threatened to attack it. However, it has not yet done so, and the United States has not attempted, during the current ceasefire, to diminish Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz once the conflict ends.
Admiral Kevin Donegan, the retired former commander of the U.S. Navy's Middle East Fleet, was quoted during a seminar hosted by the Middle East Institute this week as saying: "Both countries probably see a real opportunity to negotiate," and do not want to escalate the conflict at the moment.
Iran has previously attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, laying mines in it and in the Persian Gulf during the conflict with Iraq in the 1980s. But mine warfare is dangerous. Decades later, Iran has successfully harnessed missile and drone technology to threaten both commercial and military maritime traffic.
While the US-Israeli war severely damaged Iran’s weapons manufacturing capabilities, Tehran retained enough missiles, rocket launchers, and single-launch attack drones to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These drones proved a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by US warships, commercial oil tankers lack adequate defenses. Iran also possessed a substantial stockpile of launchers. At the time of the ceasefire, Iran had access to roughly half of its missile launchers. In the days immediately following, it unearthed approximately 100 launchers that had been buried in caves and bunkers, increasing its launcher inventory to roughly 60% of its pre-war level.
Iran is also working to recover its stockpile of missiles buried under the rubble of US attacks on its shelters and depots. According to some US estimates, once this is complete, Iran could regain up to 70% of its pre-war arsenal.
Officials indicate that statistics on Iran's weapons stockpiles are not accurate. Intelligence assessments provide an overview of the size of the force that Iran still maintains.
But despite differing estimates regarding Iran's missile stockpile, officials agree that Iran possesses enough weapons to disrupt navigation in the future.
The Iranian government chose not to close the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign, later joined by the United States, to strike nuclear sites buried deep underground.
Former Israeli official Citrinovitch said the decision may reflect the cautious approach of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who may have feared that closing the strait would lead to other countries joining the military campaign against Iran.
Tags:
asiawest
