Montfort Mlachila: "War in the Middle East slows growth in Africa" [Interview]

 

A new wave of global shocks, mainly caused by the war in the Middle East, is driving a further rise in the cost of living and darkening the economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. This is what the latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals, entitled "Achievements hard obtained under pressure".

Rising food prices, soaring fuel prices, increasing fertilizer costs: the consequences are already being felt on the ground, reviving concerns about the continent's economic resilience in 2026.

According to the report of IMF, regional growth is expected to slow slightly to 4.3%, while median inflation is expected to rise to 5% by the end of 2026.

Weakened economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa

This revision comes as several African economies were just beginning to regain one positive dynamics. In 2025, sub-saharan africa had recorded his growth rate the fastest in ten years, at 4.5%, supported by the reduction of macroeconomic imbalances, the increase in investments and a relatively favorable external environment.

Countries like the Benin, the Ivory Coast, ethiopia and the Rwanda showed solid performance, with growth above 6%. At the same time, median inflation had fallen back to around 3.5% and public debt levels were starting to decline.

"But the war in the Middle East has really slowed down this dynamic", said Montfort Mlachila, deputy director of the IMF's Africa department, in an interview with Africanews. According to him, the conflict had multiple repercussions: "above all through the rise in oil prices, but also fertilizers, transport costs, as well as in sectors such as tourism".

Rising oil prices: vulnerable African countries under pressure

For the IMF, sub-Saharan Africa now faces a new one major economic shock, after a succession of crises since covid-19 pandemic.

The report warns in particular that a 20% increase in global food prices could push up to 20 million people into a situation food insecurity moderate or severe across the African continent.

The most exposed countries are mainly oil importers, but also those already economically weakened.

Countries with high inflation, low international reserves, limited growth and large deficits are particularly vulnerable. They have much more difficulty absorbing the shock caused by rising oil prices linked to the war, explains Montfort Mlachila.

Conversely, States with sufficient reserves, a inflation under control and robust growth will be better able to cope with this energy crisis. Among the countries particularly under pressure, the IMF cites in particular the Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic and the South Sudan.

Historic cuts in international aid to Africa in 2025

The report also highlights that sub-Saharan Africa — first beneficiary region international aid worldwide — suffered an estimated decline of between 16% and 28% in bilateral aid in 2025.

These reductions represent a loss of between $4 billion and $7 billion compared to 2024 levels. The IMF describes these budget cuts as "unprecedented", particularly affecting low-income countries, fragile states and conflict-affected areas.

According to Montfort Mlachila, the consequences are likely to be particularly serious in the most vulnerable countries. These are the poorest countries, especially those facing significant humanitarian needs in sectors such as health and education. The impact is major, especially since these shocks occur simultaneously."

Financial support to strengthen economic resilience

Faced with this situation, the IMF says it wants to strengthen its support for African countries in order to improve their economic resilience. "We provide financial assistance to enable countries to adapt to these major shocks and, above all, to strengthen their resilience", said Montfort Mlachila.

According to him, this support must at least make it possible to mitigate the consequences of the crisis. "Without assistance, some countries will have even more difficulty coping with rising oil prices, financing their daily needs or maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves."

The IMF official also calls on African governments to put in place targeted aid, such as direct cash transfers, in order to support the populations most affected by inflation and the rising cost of living.

The IMF defends its economic policies in Africa

Asked about recurring criticism of the fiscal and monetary policies recommended by the IMF — often accused of aggravating social difficulties — Montfort Mlachila rejects these accusations. "Our intervention makes it possible to improve the situation compared to a scenario where no support is provided", he says.

And to recall that the presence of the IMF can encourage other international partners to provide additional aid. "The IMF often acts as a catalyst to mobilize other support, notably from the World Bank, the European Union and even bilateral donors. When we intervene, other partners are generally more inclined to help."