Ethiopia goes to the polls on Monday for elections that the ruling party is expected to win by a landslide, against a fragmented and weakened opposition.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party currently holds more than 500 seats in the House of Representatives and is expected to secure a majority in this election, guaranteeing him another five-year term.
“This extraordinary leader can lead not only Ethiopia, but also the world,” said Aynalem Bekele, a supporter of the Prosperity Party. “Our people must seize this once-in-five-year opportunity. Vote for the Prosperity Party,” she added.
Some 50 million people, out of a population of 130 million Ethiopians, are expected to vote in the House of Representatives elections. However, insecurity in the most populated regions, particularly Amhara and Oromia, is expected to negatively impact voter turnout.
The Ethiopian electoral system allows citizens to elect their representatives, who then vote to choose a prime minister. Ethiopians will also elect members of their local regional councils.
The main themes of this election are national reconciliation, due to the conflicts that have shaken regions such as Tigray, Oromia and Amhara, and development, with the government committed to carrying out large-scale projects.
Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who helped facilitate peace talks in Tigray, is leading a 73-member African Union observer mission.
The government of Abiy Ahmed has been accused of human rights abuses in meetings with critics and journalists, despite promises of democracy and peace made in 2020. Under his leadership, Ethiopia endured the Tigray War in the north of the country, where hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives in clashes between federal and regional forces. A peace agreement was signed in November 2022.
This oversight should be fair thanks to "technological advances in the electoral process" and greater public awareness, according to Bayu Samuel, a political analyst based in Addis Ababa. However, some opposition parties denounce the unfair advantage not being given to the ruling party.
“I don’t think we need to look far to see the devastating damage ethnic politics has inflicted on our nation,” said Eyoel Solomon, spokesperson for the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) movement. “We have seen citizens attacked because of their identity. We have seen them persecuted simply for succeeding in areas that others did not consider their own,” he added.
While the bulk of the campaigning has been concentrated in Addis Ababa, a strong military presence has been observed in the metropolis in recent days. The pollster dominates conversations throughout the city, even though the campaign has been unusually low-key, with few rallies and virtually no door-to-door canvassing.
The electoral commission declared Monday a public holiday, with government offices closed to encourage citizens to vote.
