Will war return to Ethiopia? Tigrayan authorities speak of the collapse of the peace agreement

Will war return to Ethiopian Tigrayan region?
Ethiopian war in the Tigray region

Authorities in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia have accused the federal government, headed by Abiy Ahmed, of preparing to launch a new war against the region, arguing that the Pretoria Agreement to cease hostilities has "effectively collapsed".

In a statement issued Saturday, Tigray authorities said the region had made great efforts to implement the peace agreement signed in Pretoria, but the process had stalled as a result of what they described as the "obstructive and destructive actions" of the federal government, as well as the failure of the agreement's guarantors to fulfill their obligations.

The statement added that signs of military escalation were beginning to appear on the ground, pointing to what it described as "drone attacks, military mobilization, and provocations," and warning that the federal government was preparing to launch a new round of fighting against the region.

Tigrayan authorities asserted that they have a "moral and legal right" to strengthen their capabilities and prepare to defend themselves, accusing parties they said were loyal to the federal government of trying to weaken the home front by encouraging young people to leave the region and spreading misinformation.

In contrast, the Tigrayan authorities stressed that resorting to force would only exacerbate the crisis, emphasizing that political dialogue remains the best way to resolve the disputes, despite declaring that the Pretoria Agreement is no longer, in their view, a valid framework for resolving the conflict.

These developments come at a time when the Ethiopian government continues to affirm its commitment to the Pretoria Agreement as the basis of the peace process, while the African Union continues to call on all parties to fully adhere to the agreement and avoid any steps that could return the country to a state of war.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022 under the auspices of the African Union, is a turning point that ended the bloody war that had been raging between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front since November 2020, a war that left hundreds of thousands dead and caused one of the worst humanitarian crises on the African continent.

Despite the cessation of large-scale fighting following the signing of the agreement, the implementation of several of its provisions remained a point of contention between the two parties, particularly regarding the return of displaced persons, the restoration of basic services, local administration arrangements, and the status of disputed areas. This kept tensions high and raised increasing fears of a collapse of the peace process and a return to armed confrontations.

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