The absence of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei from the funeral of his predecessor and father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raises questions about his health and fears of possible assassination, but it may also signal changes in the nature of the top post in the Islamic Republic.
Millions of people participated over six days in the farewell ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader, who died in the first American-Israeli strikes on February 28 at the age of 86, after spending nearly 37 years leading the Islamic Republic.
The final stop in the memorial ceremonies for Khamenei the father was his burial in the holy city of Mashhad, with the participation of all prominent Iranian political figures.
The Speaker of the Consultative Assembly, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the head of the judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, Mostafa Khamenei, the eldest son of the late Supreme Leader, and others were present at the shrine of Imam Reza, where the late Supreme Leader was buried , but his son and successor was completely absent from the scene.
Since Mojtaba Khamenei was elected to this position shortly after his father's assassination, he has made no public appearances, relying instead on written statements attributed to him.
Although attempts to spot any trace of the 56-year-old cleric in funeral photos swept across social media, no evidence was found that the new leader was present.
Since Mojtaba Khamenei was elected to this position shortly after his father's death, he has not made any public appearances, and only written statements attributed to him have been issued.
– A premature conclusion –
The absence of Mojtaba Khamenei from the various memorial services raises speculations and questions such as whether he was seriously injured or disfigured as a result of the bombing that killed his father, who was by his side that day, or whether the authorities fear that he too will be targeted by the United States or Israel, at a time when the funeral witnessed calls for revenge against US President Donald Trump?
Whatever the case, Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be a very different political figure from his father or from the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, which allows for strengthening the influence of the Revolutionary Guard, the prominent military force of the Islamic Republic.
But it is still premature to conclude that the Supreme Leader's influence has declined.
Farzan Sabet, an expert on Iranian affairs at the Geneva Institute of Graduate Studies, says, “His lack of any public appearances and his absence even from his father’s funeral negatively affect his image in the eyes of the public. However, this reality may only be temporary.”
He believes that this absence is most likely due to “several injuries that make him unable to appear in public,” and to security concerns that “any public appearance of his could be exploited to spy on him and prepare for his assassination.”
– Suspicion –
Thabet anticipates a “power struggle” between Mojtaba Khamenei and Qalibaf, who, thanks to the war, has become the most prominent Iranian political figure on the scene.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran in the United States, believes that Mojtaba Khamenei has become “more dependent” on the Revolutionary Guard, given that he assumed the position of Supreme Leader with the support of this institution.
Thabet anticipates a "power struggle" between Mojtaba Khamenei and Qalibaf, who, thanks to the war, has become the most prominent Iranian political figure on the scene.
Brodsky notes that “the balance of power between the Supreme Leader’s office and the Revolutionary Guard has changed.”
Mojtaba describes Khamenei as “weaker as a leader” than his father, recalling that Ali Khamenei needed “years” to consolidate his power after being chosen in 1989 following Khomeini’s death.
He adds, “At a time when Iran is trying to show itself as strong and united” after the war, the absence of its new Supreme Leader reveals that “suspiciousness and fear prevail behind the scenes” after the killing of a large number of officials in the February 28 attack.
Alex Vatanka, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, points out that Mojtaba Khamenei “cannot match Khomeini in charisma, nor can he suggest that he possesses the same authority that his father acquired after a life full of overcoming crises.”
In addition, the rejection of “inheritance of positions” was one of the motives of the revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979.
“Mojtaba should govern through institutions rather than above them,” Vatanka wrote in Al-Majalla magazine.
