Scientists at the Arctic and Antarctic Institute have concluded that the main factor in the deterioration of the Arctic ice is the warming of the Atlantic waters.
These waters enter the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait, and scientists reached this conclusion after analyzing data accumulated over many years, according to the institute's press service.
The analysis helped confirm that the rapid melting of Arctic ice is related to the arrival of warm water from the South Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean.
Therefore, the key to understanding the melting phenomenon lies deep within Antarctica. However, understanding this natural mechanism has practical applications, as it allows for the prediction of abnormal multi-year ice melt in the Greenland Sea one to four years in advance.
Predicting the icy conditions for years to come will help shipping companies and Northern Sea Route operators choose routes more accurately, determine sailing times, and assess risks in advance.
The study covered nearly 30 years of monitoring, from 1996 to 2023, and confirmed that the ocean plays the role of a huge thermal reservoir capable of retaining temperature anomalies for long periods, which affects the state of the ice.
“In this study, we have shown that the state of ancient ice in the Greenland Sea depends largely on what happens in the water column several years before visible changes on the surface,” said Natalia Lis, a researcher in the Institute’s Department of Oceanography .
She said that accurate long-term forecasting of the ice situation is crucial for the development of year-round navigation through the Northern Sea Route, and that the Greenland Sea is an area of heavy shipping and fishing activity, as well as being an area of multi-year drift ice from the central Arctic, while the Fram Strait serves as the main "gateway" for the exchange of water and ice between the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
According to media reports, the new forecasts will help shipping companies and Northern Sea Route operators, including the state corporation Rosatom, to choose ship routes and assess logistical risks in advance to mitigate them.
The study was conducted with support from a grant from the Russian Science Fund. The Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg is carrying out the work within the framework of the government program for the development of the Russian Arctic and the strategy for developing Russian Antarctic studies until 2030.
