With the world's population exceeding 8.2 billion, World Population Day, which falls on July 11 every year, turns to the demographic shifts that will reshape the population map in the next two decades.
While many countries in Europe and East Asia are heading for slower population growth and rising life expectancy, the Arab landscape looks different, as the region remains among the world's most populous regions, albeit facing challenges ranging from countries experiencing rapid population growth and others preparing to face declining fertility rates and rising ageing.
The United Nations and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) estimate that the population of Arab countries reached about 480 million in 2024, after almost doubling since the early 1990s, and is expected to continue to rise in the next two decades, driven by the continued rise in fertility rates in a number of countries, particularly in Arab Africa and some countries of the Levant.
While some countries continue to record high growth rates, others face the challenge of maintaining a workforce size as fertility rates decline and life expectancy rises. The fertility rate in a number of Arab countries has also declined significantly compared to decades ago, and in some of them it has fallen close to or below the level of population replacement.
Egypt will maintain its position as the most populous Arab country for the next two decades. The United Nations predicts that its population will continue to rise to close to 160 million by 2050, up from 117 million people currently, and Egypt is expected to remain among the countries that will contribute to part of the global population increase in the coming decades.
This means a continued increase in demand for education, health care, housing and employment opportunities, as well as additional pressures on water and food resources, in a country that relies mainly on the Nile River for its water needs.
Despite conflicts and political instability, the United Nations estimates that population growth in Sudan, Iraq, and Yemen will continue over the next two decades, although these projections remain subject to change depending on political and economic conditions.
Iraq is one of the fastest growing Arab countries, driven by a higher fertility rate compared to the global average, while Sudan andYemen are expected to continue to register significant growth if current demographic trends continue.
Population studies suggest that this increase could represent an economic opportunity if governments succeed in creating jobs and investing in education and health, but it could become an economic and social burden if unemployment rates and poor basic services persist.
In the GCC, population growth is not only related to fertility rates, but also heavily dependent on expatriate labor and international migration, which have become a key factor in changing demographics.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are characterized by higher life expectancy and lower fertility rates compared to previous decades, which means that maintaining the size of the workforce will continue to be linked to the continued attraction of foreign labor, along with policies aimed at increasing citizen participation in the labor market.
On the other hand, ESCWA estimates that the Maghreb countries are witnessing a gradual decline in fertility rates, and countries such as Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria are heading towards slower population growth and an increase in the proportion of older people.
This does not mean that the population will decline in the coming decades, but it does indicate a clear change in the age composition, with the proportion of the population over the age of 65 rising, as opposed to a gradual decline in the proportion of children and young people, a shift that poses challenges to the pension systems, health care and the labor market.
The Arab region still has what is known as the "demographic dividend," with working-age groups making up the largest proportion of the population, an opportunity that could contribute to economic growth if accompanied by adequate investments in education, training, and job creation.
However, the United Nations emphasizes that this opportunity is not guaranteed, but depends on the ability of economies to absorb new entrants into the labour market, enhance women's participation in economic activity, and improve the quality of education and health care, otherwise population growth may become a factor that increases unemployment, migration and social pressures.
At the global level, the United Nations expects the world's population to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-1980s, before gradually declining as fertility rates continue to decline in most countries of the world.
The latest estimates indicate that fertility is declining faster than expected in many countries, and that more than half of the world's population currently lives in countries where the fertility rate is below the replacement level, while global life expectancy has risen again after recovering from the effects of the pandemic.
Although the population of Arab countries continues to grow, fertility rates are also declining, but at a slower pace than in many regions of the world, leaving the region in a phase of demographic transition that varies from country to country.
As some countries prepare to cope with the effects of aging and labor shortages, other Arab countries will face a different challenge of how to turn population growth into an economic force rather than becoming a burden on resources and services.
Development experts agree that the future of the region will be determined not only by its population, but also by its ability to invest in human capital, improve the quality of education and health care, and create economies capable of absorbing the millions of young people who will enter the labor market in the coming decades.
