Anwar Daşdemir, a former economic analyst at the Turkish Central Bank, described the current situation of gold as a "trap" resulting from the overlap of several conflicting factors, foremost among them the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
The expert believes that gold is now caught between three main variables: escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, oil prices which are impacting inflation expectations, and cautious anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. He added that this combination of factors "represents a real trap for the precious metal."
The analyst noted that expectations of a relaxation of US monetary policy remain a key supporting factor for gold prices, especially in light of weak US labor market data, which reinforces speculation of interest rate cuts.
He also pointed to the importance of the US inflation data for July 2026, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, with forecasts indicating a 3.4% year-on-year increase in consumer prices. He noted that any reading lower than expected could increase expectations of monetary easing and push gold higher.
He added that any escalation in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as the recent attacks by the Houthi group on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia and the targeting of an Emirati-owned tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, increases uncertainty and boosts demand for gold as a safe haven.
Gold opened trading this week with a slight decline, with an ounce of gold trading at $4,320, after ending last week's trading at $4,342 per ounce, with weekly gains of 7.34%.
