Iran of its Nuclear Deal with Major Powers : U.N.

The International Atomic Energy Agency avoids saying Iran has breached the deal. At the same time, it generally only issues such ad hoc reports to member states in the event of a breach. Two diplomats told  what the report described amounted to a fresh breach.

The breach has to do with what counts officially towards Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, a highly sensitive issue since that stockpile could be enriched further to weapons-grade material suitable for nuclear bombs if Iran chose to do so. It denies seeking such weapons and says its aims are entirely peaceful.

After the deal was reached in 2015 the parties to it defined what should count towards the stockpile, and excluded items such as scrap fuel plates with uranium enriched to near 20% fissile purity, which were deemed “unrecoverable.” Friday’s report, however, said Iran had recovered some of that material.

“On 7 April 2021, the Agency verified at the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant at Esfahan that Iran had dissolved six unirradiated scrap fuel plates for the TRR (Tehran Research Reactor) containing 0.43 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% U-235,” the report said.

“A uranyl nitrate solution was extracted and converted into ammonium uranyl carbonate,” the report said, adding that Iran aimed to process that further to produce molybdenum, which has many civilian uses including in medical imaging.

While the amount of enriched uranium extracted is small, it amounts to a fresh breach at a delicate stage, since Tehran and the United States are holding indirect talks in Vienna on how they could fully return to the deal.

After talks among the remaining parties to the deal wrapped up on Friday, France’s Foreign Ministry said a “positive” first week of negotiation should not be undermined by new Iranian provocations.

“In this context, it is all the more important that Iran refrain from any further violation of its nuclear commitments that could undermine the current dynamic,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters.

David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and a hawk on Iran, said the latest breach also raises questions about what major powers excluded from the enriched uranium stockpile.

“Looking back, exempting this near 20% enriched uranium scrap was probably not a good idea,” he said, explaining what scrap means in this case: “When enriched uranium is made into fuel plates, some does not get used, somewhat like batter for a cake.”

The two nations laid out tough stances as indirect talks in Vienna on how to bring both back into full compliance with the agreement wound up for the week, with some delegates citing progress.

The talks, in which European Union officials are shuttling between the remaining parties to the deal and the United States, aim to restore the bargain at the core of the agreement - restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of U.S. and other international sanctions.

The United States was the first to renege on that bargain under then-President Donald Trump, who vehemently opposed the deal and sought to wreck it. He pulled out, reimposed the sanctions that were lifted, and brought in many more. Iran responded by breaching many of the nuclear restrictions.

“All Trump sanctions were anti-JCPOA & must be removed—w/o distinction between arbitrary designations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Twitter, referring to the deal by its full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The United States says it is prepared to lift “sanctions that are inconsistent with the JCPOA”. While it has declined to elaborate, that appears to exclude sanctions formally unrelated to nuclear issues covered by the deal.

A senior U.S. State Department official told reporters the United States had seen some signs of Iranian seriousness about returning to the nuclear pact but “certainly not enough.”

“If Iran sticks to the position that every sanction that has been imposed since 2017 has to be lifted or there will be no deal, then we are heading towards an impasse,” the senior U.S. official told reporters on a conference call.

The statements are opening gambits or more firm positions remains to be seen. European officials said Iran was bargaining hard at the outset.

The remaining parties to the accord - Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia - met again on Friday after talks formally began on Tuesday and they agreed to keep going, Russian and Chinese envoys said.

“The #JCPOA participants took stock of the work done by experts over the last three days and noted with satisfaction the initial progress made,” Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s envoy to the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Twitter after the meeting formally known as the Joint Commission.

“The Commission will reconvene next week in order to maintain the positive momentum.”

The remaining parties have formed two expert-level working groups whose job is to draw up lists of sanctions that the United States will lift and of nuclear restrictions Iran will implement. Their work continues between Joint Commission meetings.

“All parties have narrowed down their differences and we do see the momentum for gradually evolving consensus,” Wang Qun, China’s ambassador to the IAEA, told reporters.

Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement diplomats would meet again on Wednesday in Vienna. Talks are expected to drag on for weeks.

“Given the technical complexity of the nuclear aspects and legal intricacies of sanctions lifting, it would be very optimistic to think a few weeks,” a senior European diplomatic source said.

Some diplomats hope agreement can be reached before Iran’s June 18 presidential election or else talks risk being pushed back until later in the year.

“Iran is the pace car for progress. If Tehran decides to push forward swiftly before the June presidential elections, the U.S. will almost certainly be receptive,” Henry Rome, an analyst with the Eurasia Group research firm, said in a note.

“That would require Iran to compromise on its sanctions and sequencing demands. If Tehran is unsatisfied with the U.S. position, or if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is wary about the political consequences of a diplomatic breakthrough in the midst of a presidential campaign, Tehran will tap the brakes.”