The battle of Abi Ahmed and Tigray Is Ethiopia's contract broken?

Despite its military defeat and the loss of its territorial capital, the Tigray People's Liberation Front managed to organize its ranks and then regain the military initiative from the government forces.

In April 2018, the young politician and activist Abiy Ahmed Ali (47 years) came to the Ethiopian Prime Minister with a project and a dream of change, based on a personal legacy in the corridors of politics from the opposition to ministerial positions, and armed with a distinguished scientific repertoire and a doctorate whose topic was “Local conflicts in the country” With a striking charisma and a strong and stern personality.

The dream was to cross the thorns of political and ethnic contradictions to achieve "unity, justice and prosperity" and resolve internal and external conflicts, and the Nobel Committee rewarded him with its peace prize a year after he took power after concluding a reconciliation agreement with Eritrea, at a time when most Ethiopians identified with his project, which seemed shining and with achievements It was a sign.

After only about three years, Dr. Abiy Ahmed finds himself in the midst of one of the most complex and most dangerous crises that threaten the unity of Ethiopia, and may afflict him and his history as a peacemaker.

Abi Ahmed's call (an Oromo) for citizens to take up arms and defend the capital, Addis Ababa, and the alliance of 8 other political and military forces with the "Tigray People's Liberation Front" against his government and their intention to march towards the federal capital, Addis Ababa, indicates the accuracy of the situation in the country.

Abiy Ahmed assumed the prime ministership in March 2018, in a political climate marred by tension and situational and chronic political conflict, as the first person from the Oromo ethnicity to occupy this position on the recommendation of the Oromo Democratic Party, which is one of the components of the “Ethiopian Revolutionary Democratic Front” coalition after winning a majority Parliament seats (547 seats) in the 2015 elections, and following widespread protests that toppled his successor, Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-2018).

During the first year, the man was able to attract wide popular sectors with his approach calling for peace, unity, equality, consensus and combating corruption, by ending the state of emergency, releasing political prisoners, calling for reconciliation, and dismissing and prosecuting a large number of political and military officials on corruption charges.

He also worked to calm foreign conflicts and try to invest in some development projects and border issues to invoke the "national spirit", especially his hardening in the Renaissance Dam talks with Egypt and Sudan, and in the border dispute over the Fashaqa region with Khartoum.

Soon, the owner of the "Nobel" was opened in flames, and the foundations of the project and the image of the "peacemaker" were shaken by widespread popular protests, including those that followed the murder of the famous Oromo singer "Hachalu Hundesa" in July 2020, the renewed separatist tendencies and tensions in some regions and the declaration of The war on Tigray region in November 2020, which ended with government forces taking control of the provincial capital, Mekele, amid accusations of “war crimes” and widespread criticism of Abi Ahmed, who built his legitimacy on achieving peace, unity and prosperity.

The roots of the dispute

The roots of the clash in Ethiopia between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front go back to the street protests that toppled the previous government, which was dominated by the TPLF in 2018, and to the measures taken by Abi Ahmed, which the TPLF saw as intended to exclude it and liquidate its control over the joints of the state for about 27 years. The most important ones:

Removing and arresting a group of Tigrayan political and military officials from their posts on corruption charges and bringing them to trial.

Tigray lost ministerial positions and some high military positions after Abiy Ahmed took power.

Abi Ahmed’s endeavor to unify the alliance of the ruling parties representing several ethnicities into one party, the “Prosperity Party” in a way that undermines the influence of the front.

Postponing the parliamentary elections that were scheduled for June 2020 and thus extending Abi Ahmed’s term, which the Front considered unconstitutional.

The reconciliation agreement concluded by Abi Ahmed with Eritrea, which borders the Tigray region, where the historical enmity and differences on the borders between Asmara and the front.

Although Abi Ahmed carried out real and important reforms that covered several areas, the Ethiopian parties, especially the Tigrayans, read them as dismantling the “deep state” and directed to devote a new concept of Ethiopian political identity, and to build the foundations for a new political legitimacy that strengthens his influence with his Amhara allies.

Abi Ahmed was accused of concentrating a more centralized government based on the "Prosperity Party" he founded, thus dismantling the influence of the Tigrayans and their opponents within the Oromia region - from which he hails - especially the more popular parties such as the "Oromo Liberation Front" and the "Oromo Federal Conference".

Towards war

The Front separated from the ruling coalition, and challenged Abi Ahmed to hold regional elections in September 2020, which the government considered "illegal" and began accusing and measures that made the war a fait accompli, especially after the following procedures and steps:

The government decided to reduce the government’s financial allocations to the region, which the Front considered a “declaration of war.”

- In November 2020, Abi Ahmed accused the regional government of attacking the federal army forces stationed there, and said that the army would use force to secure the country.

- The Ethiopian Cabinet, during an extraordinary meeting, approved declaring a state of emergency for a period of six months in Tigray State (region), against the background of "an attack on the army forces and an attempt to steal their equipment."

The central government announced the arrest of dozens of officials and military leaders affiliated with the front, and parliament lifted the immunity of dozens of MPs affiliated with the front, including its leader.

On November 4, 2020, Abi Ahmed ordered a military response to the “mortal traitor’s attack” on the camps of the federal army in Tigray, while the front denied responsibility, considering this as a pretext for launching an “invasion.”

- Addis Ababa considered that the front had committed "high treason" against the country, while the Tigray government accused it of ethnic bias, especially after it used the forces of the neighboring state of Eritrea and the Amhara region.

After the outbreak of the war, government forces backed by troops from Eritrea and the Amhara region made rapid military gains, and were able to control the region and its capital, Mekele, in a matter of weeks. The central government arrested some of the front's symbols and fighters, while others fled to the adjacent mountainous areas, and started a guerrilla war against the Ethiopian forces and loyalists.

The war led to the deaths of thousands, and about two million people were forced to leave their homes in Tigray after the outbreak of the conflict, and many international institutions confirmed the occurrence of atrocities and war crimes in the region, and hundreds of thousands were facing starvation. Reports of possible war crimes have deeply shook Abi Ahmed's image as a "peacemaker" who won a prestigious international award.

Another war begets

Amharic militia loyal to the government near the city of Dabat, which was attacked by Tigray forces (French)

Despite its military defeat and the loss of its territorial capital, the Tigray People's Liberation Front was able to organize its ranks and carry out limited operations over the past months, then regain the military initiative.

The conflict with vote counting was renewed in the wake of the Ethiopian general elections, which took place in June 2021. Without voting in the northern region of Tigray and other turbulent parts, in which the "Prosperity Party" formed by Abi Ahmed won 410 seats out of 547, and in the meantime the front achieved Victories over the forces of the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies, in separate places in the northern region.

The conflict witnessed a sudden turning point when the Tigray Defense Forces regained control of the city of Mekele, the capital of the region, on June 28, 2021, and the federal government forces announced their withdrawal from it and a unilateral ceasefire, while the front said that it would intensify its struggle until all the "enemies" left the region.

With the progress of the Tigrayan forces and the joining of the "Oromo Liberation Front", it was announced the formation of a military and political front against Prime Minister Abi Ahmed to seek a period of political transition and threaten to storm the capital.

The new coalition, which was signed in Washington under the name "United Front of the Ethiopian Confederation and Federal Forces", included the forces of the "Tigai People's Liberation Front" and the "Oromo Liberation Army", and 7 other groups from all over the country:

Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front

- Agao Democratic Movement

Movement for the Liberation of the People of Benishangoul

Gambella People's Liberation Army

The Movement for Justice and Right for the International Kimani People / Kimant Democratic Party

The Sidama National Liberation Front

The resistance of the Somali state

How are the battles going?

During the new confrontations, Tigray forces advanced deep into the Amhara region and areas of the Afar region. It took control of the city of "Disi" in northern Ethiopia and the far south of the Amhara region (397 km from the capital Addis Ababa), the city of "Kombolsha" (376 km from Addis Ababa) and "Kemissi" (320 km), and practically there are no longer large cities separating these forces And the capital, Addis Ababa, is "Debre Burhan" (58 km from the capital).

The importance of controlling these cities lies in their location on the road to Addis Ababa and their proximity to the international roads A1 and A2, through which about 95% of Ethiopian exports pass to the port of Djibouti, and there are also some foreign investments and projects.

The front is seeking to control more sites to pressure the central government militarily and politically in any possible negotiations - reports indicate that it is actually taking place in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi -, especially if it manages to control the city of "Bati" and "Melli" located on the main road between Djibouti and Addis. Ababa.

With the further advancement of the Tigrayan forces and their allies, it will be difficult for the central government forces to launch a successful counterattack, and will rely mainly on aviation to stop the advance of these forces, or on the Eritrean army to launch an attack from the north on the Tigray region. The Eritrean army had previously assisted the government forces in controlling Mekele in the battles of November 2020.

Ethiopia the weight of history and the burden of diversity

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia as a federation consists of ten ethnic autonomous regions (regions or states) with two cities of special status (Addis Ababa and Dira Dau). The constitution promulgated on December 8, 1994 guarantees each region the freedom to organize elections and to determine its own destiny.

But the multiplicity of ethnicities and languages ​​(about 100 languages ​​according to the Encyclopedia Britannica) and the dominance of an authoritarian military rule that practiced segregation and oppression before the nineties of the last century, and plunged the country into civil war and economic decline, in addition to the decades-long war with neighboring Eritrea - before the signing of the peace agreement in 2018 -, And the differences with neighboring countries made the political and social scene in the country dynamic, effervescent, and liable to explode at any moment.

Ethiopia is located in the east of the African continent without marine coasts, extending over an area of ​​1,104 thousand square kilometers, and a population of 115 million people, according to the latest statistics of the World Bank for the year 2020. It includes multiple ethnicities and nationalities, amounting to 80.

Ethiopia is one of the founding countries of the United Nations and African Unity organizations (currently the African Union), a country with a long history that witnessed the oldest monarchies in Africa, which fell in the 1974 coup, and is the home of the Orthodox Church (one of the oldest Christian churches), condemning about 62% of the Its population is Christian (Orthodox and Protestant), and about 33.9% is Muslim. The rest embrace different religions.

Since 1962, Ethiopia has controlled neighboring Eritrea and annexed it in search of an outlet to the sea, and after a war of liberation that lasted nearly three decades, Eritrea became independent in 1993.

In 1935, the Italian fascist army overthrew Emperor Mengistu Haile Selassie (1930-1974) to return to his throne after the intervention of British forces. (1974-1991) after getting rid of the senior officers of the Derg Committee, especially Aman Andoum and Tiefri Benti.

For nearly two decades, the country witnessed a difficult economic and social situation that plunged it into internal conflicts fueled by the brutality of the military rule, which was toppled in 1991 by the "Ethiopian Revolutionary Democratic Front" - of which the "Tigai People's Liberation Front" is a major part. A federal democratic republic was formed, led by the late Meles Zenawi (1991-2012) as head of state and minister.

Ethiopia has witnessed relative stability with the formation of parties and the granting of wide power to the regions, but this did not solve the chronic ethnic contradictions, the economic crisis and the problem of governance, especially with the control of the Tigrayans and the Amharas on its reins, and the restlessness of the Oromos, who represent the largest nationalism in the country.

The Ethiopian government is discussing with the opposition the future of political participation in the country

With the outbreak of war with Eritrea (1998-2000) and the tense situation with neighboring countries, which was embodied in the Ethiopian military intervention in Somalia several times (1996, 2009, 2012) and before that, it annexed the Ogaden region (Western Somalia) in 1978 and considered it the ninth region, as well as the conflict With Sudan around the Fashaqa area and periods of drought, and frequent protest movements, Ethiopia has not been able to consolidate its democratic experience despite the relative stability and improvement in economic indicators.

What is remarkable is the economic boom that took place in the past two decades, as Ethiopia became one of the five fastest growing countries in the world, and succeeded in achieving growth rates of 9.7% in GDP in 2012-2013, and ranged between 8.5% in 2015-2016 and 9% In 2018-2019, the poverty rate decreased from 44.2% in 2000 to 23.5% in 2015, and the average per capita income has increased by 600% since 2000. Ethiopia has also become an attractive country for foreign investments - especially Chinese - and has established huge projects in industry, agriculture, tourism and services. However, this growth continued to complain of an imbalance in the distribution at the level of regions and regions, and was not generally reflected in the standard of living of the general public.

Tigray region? The knot of solution and war

The Tigray region is located in northern Ethiopia, and its capital is Mekele. It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, to the west by Sudan, to the east by the Afar region, and to the south by the Amhara region. The last census conducted by the Ethiopian authorities in 2020 indicates that its population is about 7 million, of whom 95.5% are Orthodox Christians, 4% are Muslims, 0.4% are Catholic Christians, and 0.1% are Protestant Christians. About 80% of the population of the Tigray region are farmers, who contribute about 46% of the regional GDP of the Ethiopian state.

The official language in the Tigray region is the Tigray language. Other languages ​​are also used, including Amharic (which is the official language in Ethiopia), Saho, Kunama, French and Spanish, and Arabic used by the Benishangul ethnicity that lives along the Sudanese border.

The Tigrayans, who are Exumites of Semitic origin, are prevalent in the region, constituting approximately three-quarters of the population. But there are also the Yoruba people who speak the Saho language, the Amharic, the Kunama, the Raya and the Benishangul.

Although the Tigrayans make up only 6% of Ethiopia's population, they had a long historical role in ruling Ethiopia, and they dominated the country's political power for nearly three decades until the outbreak of protests in 2018 that toppled the previous government and the start of the Abi Ahmed era.

The Tigray region, like all the Ethiopian regions, has an executive authority, a regional government, and a legislative authority represented in the State Council, while the judicial authority is vested in the Supreme Court of the region.

Cradle of mankind!

Anthropological studies indicate that the Tigray region has a history dating back to the prehistoric era, in which fossils of the first human being, whose age is 4.2 million years, known as "Australopithecus afarensis" were discovered, and fossils of the Oromo man were also found in the Middle Stone Age 300 BC. A thousand years, it is the oldest skeleton of a Homo sapiens found on Earth so far, meaning that the Tigray region is actually the cradle of civilizations.

Other studies in the region also monitored the presence of the first people in the world who spoke languages, which were written and spoken and called the "Afro-Asiatic" language. The region was also a major area for advanced civilizations, which interacted with other civilizations and formed what was known as the Kingdom of "Axum", which included Tigray and Eritrea, and extended its rule to Yemen and was considered one of the four great powers in the world at the time, along with Rome, Persia and China.

The military arm.. Tigray Defense Forces

Founded in February 1975, the Tigray People's Liberation Front was a political party based in Mekele, the capital of Tigray. She led the ruling coalition in Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018.

But with the rise of Abi Ahmed, the conflict began openly between the front and the "Prosperity Party" launched by Abi Ahmed. On January 18, 2021, the National Election Board completed the official registration of the party, transforming it from a ruling political party into a rebel party that has adopted violence as a way to appease the federal government since 2020.

The military arm of the Tigray People's Liberation Front has more than 100,000 fighters, according to some estimates. It is well-equipped and has since 1991 possessed military vehicles, equipment and special forces. The fight against the Marxist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam started in a guerrilla style and consisted of a few hundred fighters at that time.

Reports indicate that the former chief of staff of the Ethiopian army, General Tsadkan Gebritensai (68 years), who was dismissed by former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and prevented from military action due to a dispute over the war strategy with Eritrea, - where he wanted to occupy Asmara - is the central official in charge of the front forces currently. .

Despite the dispute with the leaders of the front and his distance from political and military work, Gibertensai joined the forces of the front after the outbreak of the war in November 2020, and supervised its organization within the so-called Tigray Defense Forces. He is one of the most prominent Ethiopian officers in military planning and operations command.

With the joining of military and political factions to the front and the expansion of the front lines and its gradual proximity to Addis Ababa, several scenarios for the outcome of the war are being presented, especially with the failure of mediation initiatives and the warning of the United States and Western countries to its citizens and its call to leave, which indicates the severity of the crisis and the possibility of its development for the worse.

Will Tigray enter Addis Ababa again?

Ethnic and political crises and conflicts are not new to Ethiopia, but this crisis is a milestone due to the conflicting agendas of the conflicting parties and the high level of demands, as the Tigrayans and their allies demand the overthrow of Abi Ahmed (the regime), while Abi Ahmed and his allies from the Amhara and sectors of the Oromo demand the elimination of the front .

Abi Ahmed's warning - in his statement - about the Libyan and Syrian scenario indicates the degree of seriousness of the crisis and the serious concerns for the country's unity.

On the short and medium level, and in relation to the dynamic field reality, the ongoing battles, and the prospects for reaching a solution through negotiations or a military resolution, several scenarios emerge, including:

Intervention by the Eritrean army, authorized by the central government, against the Tigray Front and its allied parties, and re-establishing control over Mekele, and then relieving pressure on the government forces and stopping the advance of the opposition forces towards Addis Ababa, then passing to a military settlement or improving negotiation terms.

The government forces resort to bombing by air, cutting off the supply lines of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and its allies, prolonging the war and arming the fronts (supply of drones, arming factions, bringing in foreign mercenaries...).

The control of Tigray forces and their allies on the main trade routes towards the ports of Djibouti and Eritrea, thus stifling Ethiopian exports and imports and putting great pressure on Abi Ahmed’s government to push it into conditional negotiations.

The forces of the Front and its allies advance to Addis Ababa and take control of it, which may bring down the government but does not guarantee the end of the battles. It may also lead to a dispute between the nine anti-Abi Ahmed factions that could develop into a fight between them due to their different goals.

- The occurrence of a military coup by the government army to depose Abi Ahmed - as some expect - as the Ethiopian army currently appears weak and divided against itself, and then passes through a transitional phase whose success is not guaranteed, and it may inflame conflicts more than resolving them.

The confrontations will turn into a long-term conflict that brings out all separatist tendencies and ethnic problems in the country, and leads to civil war and may expand the circle of conflict to include the southern regions and additional areas of northern and central Oromia.

The fight for greater autonomy turned into demands for independence and secession, which practically dismantles Ethiopia and affects the Horn of Africa as a whole in light of the population overlap between its countries.

The failure of any party to resolve the battle quickly, and the international pressure on the warring parties, especially regarding civilian casualties and war crimes, and the imposition of sanctions on those responsible for the conflict in order to stop the fighting, and then the possibility of sending peacekeeping forces or international chapters.

Reaching a power-sharing agreement under international auspices that guarantees the representation of Tigrays in a federal government, but this scenario requires the satisfaction of all other parties, and may be hampered by differences in political projects and demands between the parties and even the partners.

It seems that all scenarios are on the table in the current Ethiopian crisis, as the depth of contradictions and the difficulty of managing the huge diversity in this country represent a severe burden on any regime, and resorting to arms may make matters slip away from everyone towards a civil war that affects in some way the whole of East Africa.

Whatever scenario the situation will lead to, it seems that Ethiopia may bid farewell to years of economic boom and relative stability - which is rare during the past decades - to enter the tunnel of fighting identities and legitimacy, and lose its image as a model in the region unless there is positive and firm international intervention.(AL JAZEERA )