US officials have announced that US intelligence believes that Russia is intensifying

US officials have announced that US intelligence believes that Russia is intensifying  its preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and that it already has 70 percent of the force needed to carry out such an operation.  Moscow has massed 110,000 troops on Ukraine's border and could have enough capacity to launch an attack within two weeks, according to those officials who have told elected members of the US Congress and the US's European partners in recent days.  They noted that US intelligence has not determined whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to go on the offensive, and that he wants all possible options in front of him, from a partial invasion of the breakaway enclave of Donbass to a full invasion.  Officials warned members of Congress and European allies that at the rate the Russian military continues its reinforcements around Ukraine, Putin will have enough forces (150,000 troops in mid-February) to carry out a massive invasion.  They explained that President Putin wants to have all possible options, from a limited campaign in the pro-Ukrainian Donbass region to a massive invasion of that country.  Russia denies any intention to invade Ukraine and insists it only wants to ensure its security.  And if Moscow chooses to resort to a massive invasion, its forces could encircle the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and oust President Volodymyr Zelensky within 48 hours, according to those officials.  They warned that the conflict will have a great human cost, as it may cause the deaths of between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians, between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers, and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also lead to an influx of 1-5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.  - Special Forces  A first group of US soldiers arrived in Poland on Saturday after President Joe Biden's decision to send reinforcements to defend NATO countries "against any aggression", amid a flurry of diplomacy aimed at persuading Moscow to withdraw its forces massed on the borders of Ukraine.  Moscow also announced joint "military maneuvers" with Belarus, where several battalions were mobilized north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.  According to US intelligence, Russia continues to build a large military base around Ukraine.  Two weeks ago, 60 battalions of the Land Army were stationed in the north, east and south of Ukraine, especially in the Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.  But on Friday there were 80 battalions, while another 14 were on their way to the region from the rest of Russia, especially from Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.  About 1,500 soldiers of the "Special Operations Forces" (Spetensnaz) arrived a week ago in the border region with Ukraine, according to these officials.  They pointed out that there is a large Russian naval force in the Black Sea, equipped in particular with five amphibious vehicles that can be used to carry out a landing on the southern coast of Ukraine.  They pointed out that six other vehicles of this type were seen leaving the Barents Sea in northern Russia and wrapping around Britain before crossing the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently heading to the Black Sea.  The Russian military has also deployed combat aircraft, missile launchers and anti-aircraft batteries around Ukraine.  The US Department of Defense announced Thursday that it had evidence that Moscow was planning to film a fabricated Ukrainian attack targeting the Russians to justify the attack on Kiev.

US officials have announced that US intelligence believes that Russia is intensifying

 its preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and that it already has 70 percent of the force needed to carry out such an operation.

Moscow has massed 110,000 troops on Ukraine's border and could have enough capacity to launch an attack within two weeks, according to those officials who have told elected members of the US Congress and the US's European partners in recent days.

They noted that US intelligence has not determined whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to go on the offensive, and that he wants all possible options in front of him, from a partial invasion of the breakaway enclave of Donbass to a full invasion.

Officials warned members of Congress and European allies that at the rate the Russian military continues its reinforcements around Ukraine, Putin will have enough forces (150,000 troops in mid-February) to carry out a massive invasion.

They explained that President Putin wants to have all possible options, from a limited campaign in the pro-Ukrainian Donbass region to a massive invasion of that country.

Russia denies any intention to invade Ukraine and insists it only wants to ensure its security.

And if Moscow chooses to resort to a massive invasion, its forces could encircle the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and oust President Volodymyr Zelensky within 48 hours, according to those officials.

They warned that the conflict will have a great human cost, as it may cause the deaths of between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians, between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers, and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also lead to an influx of 1-5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.

- Special Forces

A first group of US soldiers arrived in Poland on Saturday after President Joe Biden's decision to send reinforcements to defend NATO countries "against any aggression", amid a flurry of diplomacy aimed at persuading Moscow to withdraw its forces massed on the borders of Ukraine.

Moscow also announced joint "military maneuvers" with Belarus, where several battalions were mobilized north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.

According to US intelligence, Russia continues to build a large military base around Ukraine.

Two weeks ago, 60 battalions of the Land Army were stationed in the north, east and south of Ukraine, especially in the Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

But on Friday there were 80 battalions, while another 14 were on their way to the region from the rest of Russia, especially from Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.

About 1,500 soldiers of the "Special Operations Forces" (Spetensnaz) arrived a week ago in the border region with Ukraine, according to these officials.

They pointed out that there is a large Russian naval force in the Black Sea, equipped in particular with five amphibious vehicles that can be used to carry out a landing on the southern coast of Ukraine.

They pointed out that six other vehicles of this type were seen leaving the Barents Sea in northern Russia and wrapping around Britain before crossing the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently heading to the Black Sea.

The Russian military has also deployed combat aircraft, missile launchers and anti-aircraft batteries around Ukraine.

The US Department of Defense announced Thursday that it had evidence that Moscow was planning to film a fabricated Ukrainian attack targeting the Russians to justify the attack on Kiev.

التوتر مع روسيا.. أوروبا تريد تجنّب حرب وواشنطن وأنقرة تدعمان وحدة أوكرانيا أكّدت فرنسا وألمانيا وبولندا أنّها موحّدة في سبيل تجنّب اندلاع حرب في أوروبا. واعتبر الاتحاد الأوروبي أن زيارة ماكرون لروسيا حملت معها "عنصر انفراج" في الأزمة بين الغرب وموسكو، فيما شدّدت تركيا والولايات المتحدة على دعمهما سيادة ووحدة أراضي أوكرانيا.  أكّدت فرنسا وألمانيا وبولندا أنّها "موحَّدة" في سبيل "تجنُّب اندلاع حرب في أوروبا"، وذلك خلال جولة دبلوماسية للرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون قادته مساء الثلاثاء إلى برلين بعد أن زار كلّاً من موسكو وكييف.  وقال المستشار الألماني أولاف شولتس الثلاثاء، إنّ برلين "موحَّدة" مع باريس ووارسو حول هدف المحافظة على السلام في أوروبا، فيما شدَّد الرئيس البولندي أندريه دودا على أنّ تجنُّب حرب في أوروبا أمر ممكن.  وقال دودا: "علينا إيجاد حلّ لتجنّب اندلاع حرب. كما سبق أن قلت، هذه مهمتنا الرئيسية. أعتقد أنّنا سنحقّقها"، فيما شدد ماكرون على ضرورة "إيجاد طرق ووسائل معاً للانخراط في حوار حازم مع روسيا"، مشدّداً على أن هذا هو "المسار الوحيد لتحقيق السلام في أوكرانيا".  وفي كييف كان ماكرون، الذي تتولى بلاده الرئاسة الدورية للاتحاد الأوروبي، أعلن أنّه انتزع من أوكرانيا وروسيا "تعهّداً مزدوجاً" باحترام اتفاقيات مينسك للسلام التي أُبرمَت عام 2015 بشأن النزاع في شرق أوكرانيا.   وأكّد ماكرون الثلاثاء أنه حصل من نظيره الروسي فلاديمير بوتين في أثناء محادثاتهما، على تأكيد "بعدم حصول تدهور أو تصعيد" في الأزمة بين روسيا والغرب حول أوكرانيا.  وصرّح بوتين بعد محادثاته مع ماكرون بأنّ موسكو "ستبذل كل ما في وسعها لإيجاد تسويات تناسب جميع الأطراف".  "عنصر انفراج"  من جهته اعتبر وزير خارجية الاتحاد الأوروبي جوزيب بوريل الثلاثاء، أن زيارة ماكرون لروسيا حملت معها "عنصر انفراج" في الأزمة بين الغرب وموسكو بشأن أوكرانيا، لكنها لم تحقّق أي "معجزة".  وقال بوريل للصحافيين في ختام زيارته لواشنطن: "ما دمنا مستعدين للجلوس إلى طاولة المفاوضات والتحاور، فأعتقد أنه سيكون لدينا أمل في عدم الدخول في مواجهة عسكرية".  وأضاف أن زيارة الرئيس الفرنسي لروسيا الاثنين واجتماعه مع نظيره الروسي شكّلت "إشارة إيجابية" و"مبادرة جيدة"، قائلاً: "أعتقد أنها تشكل عنصر افراج".   في سياق متّصل، أكّد وزيرا الخارجية التركي مولود جاوش أوغلو والأمريكي أنتوني بلينكن في اتصال هاتفي، دعم بلديهما وحدة أراضي أوكرانيا.  وقال بيان صادر عن المتحدث باسم الخارجية الأمريكية نيد برايس، إنّ الوزيرين "تناولا سبل تعزيز التنسيق بين البلدين في سبيل حل الأزمة الأوكرانية"، وضرورة تحرُّك حلف الناتو جماعياً في هذا الصدد.  وأردف بأن الوزيرين شدّدا على دعم سيادة ووحدة أراضي أوكرانيا، وأن الجانب الأمريكي يتابع من كثب مبادرة الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان لحل التوتر الروسي-الأوكراني.   ومؤخّراً وجّهَت الدول الغربية وعلى رأسها الولايات المتحدة، اتهامات إلى روسيا بحشد قواتها قرب الحدود الأوكرانية، وهدّدت واشنطن بفرض عقوبات على موسكو إذا شنّت هجوماً على أوكرانيا.  وترفض روسيا الاتهامات بشأن تحركات قواتها داخل أراضيها وتنفي وجود أي خطط عدوانية لديها تجاه أوكرانيا.  وتضغط موسكو على كييف لتقديم تنازلات لمتمرّدين مدعومين من روسيا في الشرق الأوكراني يخوضون معارك في مواجهة القوات النظامية منذ عام 2014 في إطار نزاع أودى بأكثر من 13 ألف شخص.   Tensions with Russia Europe wants to avoid war, and Washington and Ankara support the unity of Ukraine  France, Germany and Poland asserted that they were united in order to avoid a war in Europe. The European Union considered that Macron's visit to Russia brought with it an "element of détente" in the crisis between the West and Moscow, while Turkey and the United States stressed their support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.  France, Germany and Poland affirmed that they are "united" in order to "avoid the outbreak of war in Europe", during a diplomatic tour of French President Emmanuel Macron, which led him on Tuesday evening to Berlin, after he visited Moscow and Kiev.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that Berlin was "united" with Paris and Warsaw on the goal of maintaining peace in Europe, while Polish President Andrzej Duda stressed that avoiding war in Europe was possible.  Duda said, "We have to find a solution to avoid a war. As I said, this is our main task. I think we will achieve it," while Macron stressed the need to "find ways and means together to engage in a resolute dialogue with Russia," stressing that this is the "track". The only way to achieve peace in Ukraine.  In Kiev, Macron, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, announced that he had extracted from Ukraine and Russia a "double pledge" to respect the 2015 Minsk peace agreements on the conflict in eastern Ukraine.  On Tuesday, Macron confirmed that he had obtained from his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during their talks, "there has been no deterioration or escalation" in the crisis between Russia and the West over Ukraine.  After his talks with Macron, Putin said that Moscow "will do everything in its power to find compromises that suit all parties."  "breaking element" For his part, European Union Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that Macron's visit to Russia brought with it an "element of détente" in the crisis between the West and Moscow over Ukraine, but it did not achieve any "miracle."  Borrell told reporters at the end of his visit to Washington: "As long as we are ready to sit at the negotiating table and engage in dialogue, I think we will have hope not to engage in a military confrontation."  He added that the French President's visit to Russia on Monday and his meeting with his Russian counterpart constituted a "positive signal" and a "good initiative", saying: "I think it constitutes an element of release."  In a related context, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and American Anthony Blinken affirmed, in a phone call, their countries' support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.  A statement issued by US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the two ministers "discussed ways to enhance coordination between the two countries in order to resolve the Ukrainian crisis," and the need for NATO to act collectively in this regard.  He added that the two ministers stressed support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and that the US side is closely following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's initiative to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian tension.  Recently, Western countries, led by the United States, accused Russia of massing its forces near the Ukrainian border, and Washington threatened to impose sanctions on Moscow if it launched an attack on Ukraine.  Russia rejects the accusations about the movements of its forces inside its territory and denies the existence of any aggressive plans it has towards Ukraine.  Moscow is pressing Kiev to make concessions to Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine, who have been fighting regular forces since 2014 in a conflict that has killed more than 13,000 people.

Tensions with Russia Europe wants to avoid war, and Washington and Ankara support the unity of Ukraine


France, Germany and Poland asserted that they were united in order to avoid a war in Europe. The European Union considered that Macron's visit to Russia brought with it an "element of détente" in the crisis between the West and Moscow, while Turkey and the United States stressed their support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

France, Germany and Poland affirmed that they are "united" in order to "avoid the outbreak of war in Europe", during a diplomatic tour of French President Emmanuel Macron, which led him on Tuesday evening to Berlin, after he visited Moscow and Kiev.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that Berlin was "united" with Paris and Warsaw on the goal of maintaining peace in Europe, while Polish President Andrzej Duda stressed that avoiding war in Europe was possible.

Duda said, "We have to find a solution to avoid a war. As I said, this is our main task. I think we will achieve it," while Macron stressed the need to "find ways and means together to engage in a resolute dialogue with Russia," stressing that this is the "track". The only way to achieve peace in Ukraine.

In Kiev, Macron, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, announced that he had extracted from Ukraine and Russia a "double pledge" to respect the 2015 Minsk peace agreements on the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Macron confirmed that he had obtained from his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during their talks, "there has been no deterioration or escalation" in the crisis between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

After his talks with Macron, Putin said that Moscow "will do everything in its power to find compromises that suit all parties."

"breaking element"
For his part, European Union Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that Macron's visit to Russia brought with it an "element of détente" in the crisis between the West and Moscow over Ukraine, but it did not achieve any "miracle."

Borrell told reporters at the end of his visit to Washington: "As long as we are ready to sit at the negotiating table and engage in dialogue, I think we will have hope not to engage in a military confrontation."

He added that the French President's visit to Russia on Monday and his meeting with his Russian counterpart constituted a "positive signal" and a "good initiative", saying: "I think it constitutes an element of release."

In a related context, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and American Anthony Blinken affirmed, in a phone call, their countries' support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.

A statement issued by US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the two ministers "discussed ways to enhance coordination between the two countries in order to resolve the Ukrainian crisis," and the need for NATO to act collectively in this regard.

He added that the two ministers stressed support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and that the US side is closely following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's initiative to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian tension.

Recently, Western countries, led by the United States, accused Russia of massing its forces near the Ukrainian border, and Washington threatened to impose sanctions on Moscow if it launched an attack on Ukraine.

Russia rejects the accusations about the movements of its forces inside its territory and denies the existence of any aggressive plans it has towards Ukraine.

Moscow is pressing Kiev to make concessions to Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine, who have been fighting regular forces since 2014 in a conflict that has killed more than 13,000 people.

استطلاع: 70% من الفرنسيين مع تقليل أو وقف المساعدات الاجتماعية للأجانب أظهر الاستطلاع أنّ نحو 70% من الفرنسيين يريدون أن تقتصر المساعدات العائلية على حاملي الجنسية الفرنسية أو مواطني الاتحاد الأوروبي.  كشف استطلاع رأي نُشِر الأحد، أنّ 7 من أصل 10 فرنسيين يؤيّدون فكرة تقليل أو وقف تقديم مساعدات اجتماعية للأجانب المقيمين في فرنسا.  وشملت العيّنة المشاركة في الاستطلاع ما يزيد على ألفي مشارك من الجنسين.  وأظهر الاستطلاع الذي أعده معهد "IFOP" الفرنسي، أنّ 69% من النساء يؤيّدن فرض حظر كامل على دفع المساعدات الاجتماعية للأجانب الذين قضوا أقلّ من خمس سنوات في فرنسا بشكل منتظم، مقابل 77% من الرجال.  وتُظهِر هذه الأرقام أنّ مزيداً من النساء يُقبِلن على هذه الفكرة، رغم أنّهن كُنَّ تاريخياً أقل تأييد لها من الرجال.  كما تبيّن أنّ 70% من النساء و72% من الرجال الذين شملهم الاستطلاع يريدون أن تقتصر المساعدات العائلية على الأشخاص الذين يحملون الجنسية الفرنسية أو مواطني دول أخرى داخل الاتحاد الأوروبي.  يُشار إلى أنّ مرشحي اليمين الثلاثة لانتخابات الرئاسة الفرنسية اقترحوا بالفعل تقليل أو حتى إلغاء المساعدات الاجتماعية الممنوحة للأجانب.  كما يوضّح الاستطلاع أنّ 84% من المؤيدات لمرشحة الحزب الجمهوري فاليري بيكريس يؤيدن هذه الخطوة، فيما ترتفع هذه النسبة إلى 85% لدى كل من مؤيدات رئيسة التجمع الوطني مارين لوبان ومرشح حزب "استعادة فرنسا" إريك زمور.   Poll: 70% of French people reduce or stop social assistance to foreigners  The survey showed that about 70% of the French want family assistance to be limited to holders of French citizenship or citizens of the European Union.  An opinion poll published on Sunday revealed that 7 out of 10 French people support the idea of ​​reducing or stopping the provision of social assistance to foreigners residing in France.  The sample participating in the survey included more than two thousand participants of both sexes.  The poll, prepared by the French "IFOP" institute, showed that 69% of women support a complete ban on the payment of social assistance to foreigners who have regularly spent less than five years in France, compared to 77% of men.  These numbers show that more women accept this idea, although they have historically been less supportive of it than men.  It was also found that 70% of women and 72% of men surveyed want family assistance to be limited to people with French citizenship or citizens of other countries within the European Union.  It is noteworthy that the three right-wing candidates for the French presidential elections have already proposed reducing or even eliminating social assistance granted to foreigners.  The poll also shows that 84% of supporters of the Republican Party candidate, Valerie Pecres, support this step, while this percentage rises to 85% among both supporters of the National Rally President Marine Le Pen and the candidate of the "Restoration of France" party Eric Zemmour.

Poll: 70% of French people reduce or stop social assistance to foreigners


The survey showed that about 70% of the French want family assistance to be limited to holders of French citizenship or citizens of the European Union.

An opinion poll published on Sunday revealed that 7 out of 10 French people support the idea of ​​reducing or stopping the provision of social assistance to foreigners residing in France.

The sample participating in the survey included more than two thousand participants of both sexes.

The poll, prepared by the French "IFOP" institute, showed that 69% of women support a complete ban on the payment of social assistance to foreigners who have regularly spent less than five years in France, compared to 77% of men.

These numbers show that more women accept this idea, although they have historically been less supportive of it than men.

It was also found that 70% of women and 72% of men surveyed want family assistance to be limited to people with French citizenship or citizens of other countries within the European Union.

It is noteworthy that the three right-wing candidates for the French presidential elections have already proposed reducing or even eliminating social assistance granted to foreigners.

The poll also shows that 84% of supporters of the Republican Party candidate, Valerie Pecres, support this step, while this percentage rises to 85% among both supporters of the National Rally President Marine Le Pen and the candidate of the "Restoration of France" party Eric Zemmour.
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