A new study warns that "we are on the right path" to increase global warming!

Humans are very slowly abandoning the use of coal to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the international treaty on climate change that aims to tackle global warming, according to a new study.

The aim of the Paris agreement is to limit the rise in the global average temperature to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" and to "pursue efforts" to keep the increase below 1.5°C.

Phasing out coal is a great way to do this given that humans currently release around 15 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, with coal accounting for about 40% of those emissions. Once the carbon dioxide gets there, it can linger for centuries, trapping the sun's heat and changing climates around the world.

Many countries have plans to phase out coal, or at least use less coal, as part of their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This is progress, a huge leap from the state of international climate negotiations prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

However, the researchers say, we are moving in the right direction at the wrong speed.

The authors of the new study report write: At our current pace of phasing out coal, we are on track to exceed the 2° limit of the Paris Agreement for maximum global warming. They warn that without major changes, we are heading for 2.5 or 3 degrees of warming.

This isn't the first time researchers have made this prediction.

"There is an increasing number of countries promising to phase out coal from their energy systems, which is positive," says study co-author and environmental scientist Aleh Scherb of Lund University in Sweden.

“Unfortunately, however, their commitments are not strong enough. If we are to have a realistic chance of achieving the 2-degree target, coal phase-out needs to happen faster, and countries that depend on other fossil fuels need to increase their transition rate.”

To come to this conclusion, the researchers analyzed plans from 72 countries that have pledged to phase out coal by 2050. The good news is that a 2°C rise in temperatures is still avoidable. But only in the best-case scenario, say the researchers, are China and India phasing out coal within five years.

Even so, they add, we would still be less than 2 degrees warming if China and India adopt ambitious plans, at least matching the UK's pace of cuts so far and exceeding Germany's pledged cuts.

Under other scenarios, which the researchers describe as more realistic, the Earth is on a path to global warming of 2.5 to 3 degrees.

Dozens of countries have fallen behind on their commitments under the Paris agreement, with the 2021 report finding that the Gambia is the only country currently on the right track.

Climate change is already wreaking havoc before temperatures rise by 2 degrees, but scientists expect worse consequences as we get closer and closer to that line.

This warming is unprecedented in human history, but the Earth has experienced similar warm periods for a long time, giving us some clues about what to expect.

The loss of the Antarctic ice sheet could raise sea levels by 20 metres, for example, while people around the world face relentless disasters ranging from heatwaves and extreme droughts to superstorms and icy floods, along with reduced food security and increased Disease risk.

Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, and the increasing taboo for coal-fired power plants, coal has proven to be a difficult habit to break.

Coal use is gradually declining in many countries. After declining by 3.1% in 2020, global coal consumption increased by 1.2% in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, pushing annual global coal use to more than 8 billion metric tons for the first time. .

Global carbon dioxide emissions also continue to increase, rebounding from a pandemic-related low in 2020 to new highs in 2021 and 2022. Carbon dioxide emissions from coal increased by 1.6% in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, and coal remains the main reason behind the increase in overall carbon dioxide emissions.

The study was published in IOPscience.