According to the researchers, this phenomenon has been previously neglected in climate models, even though it could significantly accelerate the rise in global ocean levels.
The climate situation around the Thwaites Ice Shelf in Antarctica—known as the "Doomsday Ice Shelf"—has turned out to be far more dangerous than previously thought. According to a recent study, the ice is being subjected to invisible forces akin to powerful underwater storms. These eddies, originating in the open ocean, penetrate the cavities beneath the ice shelf, rapidly melting it from below.
Researcher Mattia Buinelli from the university explains that these high-energy eddies cause turbulent movement of water masses, likening it to a vicious cycle: the resulting melting increases the level of turbulence, leading to even more melting. She points out that this mechanism operates continuously throughout the year, making it a constant threat to ice stability. According to scientists, these "waterstorms" contribute up to 20% of the total subsurface melt in the region.
Researchers emphasize that this discovery has significant implications for predicting global sea-level rise, especially since current climate models largely ignore the impact of these short-term but highly effective processes. This means that current projections may significantly underestimate the true risks. Therefore, scientists are calling for the inclusion of what might be termed "underwater weather" in climate calculations to obtain more accurate and comprehensive future models.
It is worth noting that the Thwaites Glacier, along with the adjacent Pine Island Glacier, represents a vulnerable part of what is known as the "weak underside" of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Their collapse—even with a slight rise in temperatures—could trigger a chain reaction of collapses that could ultimately lead to the complete disintegration of the ice sheet in the region. The impact of such a scenario would be catastrophic, potentially raising sea levels by as much as three meters, submerging coastal cities worldwide, causing widespread displacement, and leading to the disappearance of small island nations.
Scientists warn that the timeframe for a potential collapse remains uncertain, but they predict that—at current greenhouse gas emissions—it will take hundreds of years, not thousands. As the climate continues to warm and more warm water flows into the region, these underwater storms are expected to become more frequent, profoundly impacting the stability of Antarctic ice and the future of the planet.
