What does the assassination of Ali Larijani mean?

What does the assassination of Ali Larijani mean?

  
The French newspaper Le Monde said that with the assassination of the head of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, Israel is eliminating one of the essential pillars of Iranian power, and he is the most prominent political figure that the regime has pushed to the forefront since the assassination of Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war that Israel and the United States have been waging against Iran since February 28. At a time when the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed on March 8, has not yet appeared, and has not published any video or audio message, which raises doubts about his health condition, and even about his survival.
Le Monde also considered the killing of Ali Larijani to be a new insult to the Islamic Republic, and also revealed once again the extent to which Israeli intelligence services had penetrated the regime.
The killing of Ali Larijani constitutes a new humiliation for the Islamic Republic, and reveals once again the extent to which Israeli intelligence agencies have penetrated the regime.
At the same time, Israel also announced the killing of General Gholamreza Soleimani , commander of the Basij, a paramilitary militia linked to the Revolutionary Guard. Soleimani was sanctioned by the United States in 2019 for his role in suppressing protests.
With that, the two men join a long list of military and political officials who have been killed since the start of the Israeli-American strikes.
Le Monde went on to discuss Ali Larijani, explaining that he was one of the most influential politicians in Iran over the past twenty years. He combined ideological loyalty with pragmatism, was conservative on social issues, but adept at managing the nuclear negotiations in which he participated.
His family remains one of the most powerful political families in the country. His brother, Sadegh Larijani, served as head of the judiciary for ten years (2009-2019) and was an influential member of the Guardian Council, the body that vets candidates according to strict ideological criteria.
Ali Larijani was born in 1957 in Najaf, Iraq, into a religious family, before growing up in Iran. His father was a prominent Shiite cleric close to Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Larijani served in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
He earned a doctorate in philosophy from Tehran University, specializing in Kantian thought. He served as Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance (1992-1994) and then headed the state broadcaster (1994-2004). During this period, the channel aired programs that accused intellectuals and dissidents of working for foreign powers, paving the way for their prosecution, according to the French newspaper.
In 2005, his loyalty and experience were rewarded when he was appointed the Supreme Leader's representative to the Supreme National Security Council, before assuming the chairmanship of that council for two years. During that period, he was the chief negotiator on Iran's nuclear program with Western powers.
From 2008 to 2020, he served as Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, where he sought to balance the various factions within the regime. During this period, he cultivated close ties with more moderate figures such as former President Hassan Rouhani, the architect of the 2015 nuclear agreement. His positions, which hardline conservatives perceived as conciliatory toward the West, drew sharp criticism, particularly his support for the nuclear deal, leading to his temporary marginalization.
In the 2021 presidential election, his candidacy was rejected by the Guardian Council. After months of tension, a confidential letter revealed that he was deemed “ineligible” for political and family reasons, including his support for disqualified candidates and the fact that some of his family members resided abroad, particularly in the United States and Europe. He was again barred from running in the 2024 election, which was held after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.
Despite these setbacks, he remained loyal to the regime. He was reappointed head of the Supreme National Security Council after the “Twelve-Day War” between Iran and Israel in June 2015. He became the chief coordinator of Iranian foreign policy, intensifying his visits to Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar, and overseeing the resumption of nuclear negotiations with Washington.
The killing of Larijani is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Iranian strikes against Israel and the Gulf states, as the Iranian regime is designed to absorb such shocks.
His rise continued after the assassination of Ali Khamenei, as he intensified his hardline rhetoric against the United States and Israel, asserting that his country would fight "at any cost" and accusing Donald Trump of dragging the American people into an "unjust war." He emerged as the de facto leader of Iran, alongside Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Le Monde argued that his assassination is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Iranian strikes against Israel and the Gulf states, as the Iranian regime is designed to absorb such shocks, according to analysts. Previous assassinations, since June 2025 and since February 28, have shown that they have not affected the Iranian military response.

But on the political front, Le Monde adds, his assassination could lead to further hardening of the regime by reinforcing the official narrative that the war is an existential matter. Larijani was one of the few capable of managing the political and strategic dimensions of the war, crafting messages, and communicating with external parties.

There are fears that his absence will lead to a decline in the role of veteran politicians in favor of the military and the Revolutionary Guard, a trend already evident with the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who is close to security circles. Even before Larijani's assassination, the chances of reaching a political settlement were slim, but his absence could make them even slimmer, potentially giving rise to more 

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