David Gross, the 2004 Nobel Prize winner in physics, warned that the risk of nuclear war and increasing military and technological developments could threaten the future of humanity in just a few decades.
Gross suggests that humanity may have no more than about 35 years left if the current risks continue at the same pace.
In an interview with Live Science, Gross explained that post-Cold War estimates suggested a 1% chance of nuclear war per year, but he believes this figure may be lower than reality, suggesting the probability is closer to 2% per year, or one in fifty chances each year.
Based on this estimate, he indicated that the "life expectancy" of humanity under this level of risk does not exceed about 35 years, explaining that these calculations are based on mathematical models similar to those used in calculating the half-life of radioactive materials, which describe the probability of events occurring over time.
Gross said the global situation has become more dangerous over the past three decades, pointing to escalating international tensions and renewed nuclear threats, in addition to regional crises such as tensions with Iran and confrontations that almost developed into a conflict between India and Pakistan.
He also warned of the decline of nuclear arms control treaties, explaining that no major new agreements had been concluded in the past ten years, at a time when the number of nuclear states had risen to nine, making the situation more complicated compared to the Cold War period.
In another context, Gross pointed to the risks associated with the increasing military use of artificial intelligence, explaining that the speed of these systems may lead decision-makers to rely on them in making sensitive decisions, even though they are not error-free.
He added: "It will be difficult to resist the temptation to rely on artificial intelligence in decision-making given its speed," warning that this could raise the level of risks if strict controls are not put in place.
Despite these concerns, Gross believes that history shows that it is possible to change course, noting that scientific awareness and public pressure may contribute to reducing these risks, as has happened in other global issues such as climate change.
He concluded by emphasizing that humanity created these threats, and therefore also has the ability to reduce or control them if sufficient political will and awareness are available.
It is worth noting that David Gross won the Nobel Prize in Physics for his discovery of the phenomenon of "Asymptotic Freedom," which explains why the strong nuclear force weakens as quarks get closer to each other.
