Politico published a report by Daniel Desrocher, in which he said that President Donald Trump’s war against Iran has depleted many vital American weapons, and that rebuilding the depleted stockpile requires cooperation with China, because Beijing has complete control over the vital minerals that the United States needs to rebuild its weapons stockpile after five weeks of war.
In just one month of the war, Iran targeted several U.S. radar units deployed throughout the region, sophisticated defensive weapons used to detect and shoot down missiles and drones.
Military experts believe that many of them have been damaged, if not completely destroyed.
Gallium is a key component in US missile interception systems, and China has a near-monopoly on this metal.
Gallium is a key component in these interceptor systems and is also a crucial metal used in other high-tech products such as semiconductors. The magazine added that China has a near-monopoly on gallium processing and has already indicated its willingness to restrict access to it.
Therefore, increased US demand for this metal to rebuild interceptor systems—a process that will take years—strengthens Beijing’s position at the upcoming summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The magazine quoted Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor specializing in bio-metals, as saying: “Does this make us more vulnerable overall? Yes, I think so. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.”
Gallium prices have actually risen by 32% over the past month, following months of declines after the October 30 agreement between the United States and China. The negotiations were partly due to China's near-total control over the processing of critical metals, including gallium, a bargaining chip Beijing used to cut off supplies and force the United States to the negotiating table.
The magazine says that if demand for vital metals increases as the United States seeks to replenish its weapons stockpiles, it will strengthen China's position.
Biological metals are a key component of U.S. weapons systems and recent defense technologies, as well as being important for a large number of consumer products, including semiconductors, electric vehicles, wind power generators, smartphone chargers, and laptops.
The importance of these metals extends beyond the fact that interceptor missiles rely on gallium for precise threat detection; other heavy rare earth metals, such as terbium and dysprosium, are essential components in missile guidance. China controls over 90% of the processing of heavy rare earth metals.
Brian Hart, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and deputy director of the China Power Project, commented, “Disrupting these supply chains could create new bottlenecks in the defense industry supply chains, where we already face enough challenges to meet demand within our own defense industry. So, adding bottlenecks in critical metals significantly complicates matters.” As the United States regroups during the two-week ceasefire with Iran announced by the president on Thursday night, the military will be able to assess the damage to its weapons stockpiles and what is required to rebuild them.
In the early days of the war, Iran launched attacks on seven U.S. military sites, targeting communications and radar systems, according to The New York Times. Protecting these systems requires the United States and its allies to launch multiple missiles to intercept any incoming threat, sometimes using 10 or 11 interceptor missiles to shoot down a single missile, leading to a rapid depletion of U.S. supplies, according to an analysis by the Penn Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
The conflict in Iran underscores the urgent need for the U.S. federal government to build alternative supply chains for vital minerals, independent of China.
The conflict in Iran underscores the urgent need for the U.S. federal government to build alternative supply chains for vital minerals, independent of China.
Just last year, the U.S. Trade Representative began negotiating a multilateral trade agreement for critical minerals with several countries, and the administration requested $1.1 billion to establish a critical minerals office in the Department of Energy and directed the State Department to work with allies to help secure the critical minerals supply chain.
Last July, the Pentagon became the largest shareholder in MP Materials, which owns the country’s only operating rare earth mine, by purchasing $400 million worth of preferred shares.
In October, the White House announced a critical minerals agreement with Australia, under which the twocountries plan to spend $3 billion on critical minerals projects, including a Defense Department investment in a gallium refinery in Western Australia that will produce 100 metric tons annually. “We are making significant progress in the United States with regard to domestic self-sufficiency in rare earth elements,” U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer said at an event hosted by the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. “We are working with our partners on this and discussing storage, deals, not only in mining facilities, but also in processing, refining, and manufacturing, and we are discussing pricing mechanisms to ensure its economic sustainability.”
The magazine cited metals experts who noted that gallium is one of the most promising areas for the United States to increase its supply. In addition to the relatively small market size, this metal is often a byproduct of refining other metals, such as aluminum and zinc. This means that a company capable of extracting gallium during its smelting process could contribute to increasing global supplies.
However, these efforts are taking considerably longer than it would take the United States to deplete its own stockpiles of weapons. The Australian company Alcoa, which is likely to receive funding under the U.S. Department of Defense's gallium extraction efforts, declined to comment on the report and stated that it is not currently involved in gallium refining.
The question is whether Beijing will try to leverage its newfound influence over Iran to its advantage before Trump's visit to China in mid-May, especially given that, as Greer noted, relations between the two countries are stable. The Chinese, who are keen to maintain a stable relationship with Trump, may be reluctant to upset this balance.
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