Researchers warn that climate change could expand the spread of the Chikungunya virus to new areas, including parts of Europe, North America and East Asia, by the end of this century.
Chikungunya is classified as a neglected tropical disease by the World Health Organization and is transmitted to humans through the bites of Aedes mosquitoes. Its most prominent symptoms include high fever, severe joint and muscle pain, headache, fatigue, nausea, and a skin rash. The name of the disease, derived from the local Kimakonde language (an African indigenous language), means "to become twisted," referring to the intense joint pain it causes.
According to estimates by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, approximately 33,000 symptomatic cases were recorded worldwide in 2026, including nine deaths, with the majority of cases concentrated in South America. To date, the virus is not endemic in Europe or North America, with infections in these regions limited to travelers arriving from affected areas.
However, a recent study published in the journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology suggests that this reality may change in the coming decades due to rising global temperatures.
Dr. Yi Xu, a researcher at Zhejiang University of Chinese Medicine in Hangzhou and one of the study's lead authors, said that 139 countries or regions worldwide are currently at risk of the virus spreading, representing more than one-fifth of the Earth's land area. He added that climate change models predict the virus will continue to spread northward toward temperate regions, particularly in northeastern North America, Central Europe, and East Asia.
The researchers based their study on simulation models that drew on tens of thousands of geographic records of virus spread and the mosquito species that transmit it. They also analyzed 16 different climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), encompassing diverse paths for economic development and global heat emissions.
The researchers explained that the danger is not only related to the virus, but also to the expanding range of the mosquitoes that carry it, especially the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which is more tolerant of cold weather than the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti).
This mosquito gained particular importance after a widespread epidemic between 2005 and 2006 in Réunion Island, Mauritius, the Comoros Islands, and parts of India, infecting approximately 266,000 people and causing more than 250 deaths. During that period, researchers discovered a genetic mutation in the virus that made it more capable of being transmitted by the Asian tiger mosquito.
Dr. Yang Wu, one of the study's participants, said that the "Asian tiger" mosquito accounts for more than 70% of the virus's expected future distribution, noting that rising temperatures may allow it to spread in areas that were previously very cold.
The study predicts that regions such as northern and central Europe, northeastern North America, and East Asia will become more conducive to the spread of the disease by 2100, prompting researchers to call on health authorities in these regions to prepare early by strengthening mosquito surveillance, training doctors to quickly diagnose the disease, and developing effective response plans for any potential outbreaks.
The researchers stressed that reducing global warming and investing early in preventive measures could reduce the risk of the virus spreading into widespread epidemics in the future.
