Abu Dhabi's withdrawal from OPEC is a defiant step towards Riyadh, the French newspaper Le Monde said that the United Arab Emirates' decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reflects its growing disagreements with Saudi Arabia since the US-Israeli war against Iran.
The French newspaper noted the absence of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan from the Gulf Cooperation Council consultative meeting hosted by the Saudi city of Jeddah on Tuesday, April 28, which was supposed to show the solidarity of the Gulf leaders around the Saudi Crown Prince, following the American-Israeli war in Iran that cost them dearly.
Le Monde considered that by announcing its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), coinciding with the convening of the Gulf Consultative Meeting, the UAE had drawn the first conclusions of the conflict in the Middle East, through its refusal to now align itself with anyone.
By announcing its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), coinciding with the Gulf Consultative Meeting, the UAE has taken the first steps toward drawing conclusions from the conflict in the Middle East, through its current refusal to align itself with any of the major powers.
The French newspaper also saw this decision as reopening the dispute with Saudi Arabia, which surfaced publicly in December 2015 but was calmed during the war that erupted at the end of February. Abu Dhabi chose to act unilaterally, even if it meant igniting an oil price war.
This withdrawal represents a second declaration of independence for Abu Dhabi, one of the cartel's leading oil producers. Mohammed bin Zayed's father, Sheikh Zayed, joined OPEC in 1967, four years before the founding of the United Arab Emirates, Le Monde notes.
The newspaper quotes historian Toby Mathiesen of the University of Bristol as saying that this move “undermines OPEC and shows that the Iran war has not united the Gulf states but has increased their division.”
When asked by Reuters whether Riyadh had been consulted, Emirati Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei clarified that his country had not consulted anyone. Later, official Emirati voices attempted to downplay the significance of the decision, portraying it as purely economic and devoid of political dimensions , as Le Monde reports.
The French newspaper goes on to say that estimates indicate that the UAE had been considering withdrawing for at least four years due to disagreements over production quotas within OPEC imposed by Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai-based Center for Public Policy Research, said the UAE needs to increase its oil production to support its partnerships with India, Korea and the United States, adding that the war in Iran accelerated the decision.
Growing division
Nevertheless, the withdrawal remains largely symbolic, as Iran and the United States continue to impose a mutual blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the region's main trade artery, Le Monde notes, also explaining that the Emirati move appears to satisfy some international partners seeking to reduce fuel prices, at a time when US President Donald Trump is facing difficulties in ending the war.
The withdrawal remains largely symbolic, as Iran and the United States continue to impose a mutual blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the region's main trade artery.
The newspaper went on to point out that the UAE relies on oil for only a quarter of its GDP and seeks to export as much as possible before renewable energy reduces demand. In contrast, Saudi Arabia is more heavily dependent on oil, delaying economic diversification and striving to keep prices high for as long as possible.
The war has weakened the image of the UAE as a stable country and a center for business and tourism, and has also revealed its vulnerability to Iran, which targeted it mainly during the response to the American strikes, says Le Monde, quoting researcher Tariq Al-Otaiba as saying that the UAE no longer wants to return to the previous situation as if nothing had happened, unlike Saudi Arabia’s desire.
Strategic repositioning
Anwar Gargash, the UAE's diplomatic advisor, believes that the policies of containing Iran in the Gulf states have all failed, the newspaper notes, adding that this is pushing the UAE to reassess its alliances, and recalling that researcher Tariq Al-Otaiba said before the withdrawal announcement that the UAE would reconsider its participation in OPEC, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League.
Abu Dhabi places the United States at the forefront of its “true friends,” after it provided it with a defensive umbrella during the war, but at the same time it is resentful of being marginalized in the ceasefire negotiations, and is trying to strengthen its influence with Washington, and is aligning itself with the Israeli position in the region, says Le Monde.
Reports indicate that Israel may have supplied Abu Dhabi with an air defense system during the war, although this has not been officially confirmed. The UAE also exerted financial pressure on Pakistan, the mediator in negotiations with Iran, which strained its relations with both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Le Monde adds.
Increased regional tension
These moves, the newspaper continues, are surprising neighboring Arab states, which view them as inconsistent behavior. The UAE justifies this with the logic of "startups," arguing that the Saudi-led regional order is outdated and needs "creative destruction." Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, sees this behavior as reflecting a lack of loyalty, Le Monde reports, noting that Riyadh has sidelined the UAE from the Yemen file following disagreements over Abu Dhabi's support for separatist forces in the south of the country.
Since then, Saudi Arabia has accused the UAE of stirring up unrest in Yemen, while Abu Dhabi argues that the cost of playing a stabilizing role was too high, whereas it can now exert influence in less costly and more effective ways.
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