International expert and former advisor to the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation, Ahmed Al-Mufti, revealed that the current decline in the waters of the Nile River in Sudan during the filling and operation phase of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam represents an "unprecedented" phenomenon.
The Sudanese international expert attributed this significant decrease in the Nile River's water levels to the impact of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the natural water flows, stressing that this was due to the lack of coordination between Ethiopia and the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.
The Mufti said that what is happening now is different from the natural system that Sudan has been accustomed to for decades, explaining that the Renaissance Dam is preventing the flow of the Blue Nile waters in the way they used to flow before its construction.
The international expert explained in statements reported by the Sudanese website “Al-Muhaqqiq” that the completion of filling the dam does not mean the end of the effects, as any amounts of rain that fall on the Ethiopian plateau and that Ethiopia does not need will later flow towards Sudan and Egypt, which may lead to floods if the operation is not managed according to prior coordination.
He added that operating the dam for the purpose of generating electricity also affects the amount of water flowing into Sudan, noting that the lack of prior notification makes it difficult for the Sudanese authorities to manage local dams in the way that was previously based on monitoring natural flood waves.
The Mufti stressed that Sudan had been managing its dams before the construction of the Renaissance Dam according to a known system for the flows of the Blue Nile. If the water quantities came above average, limited floods would occur that could be dealt with, and if they decreased, the receding waters were also limited and could be contained.
He pointed out that unilaterally operating a reservoir with a capacity exceeding 60 billion cubic meters, a capacity that exceeds the annual flow of the Blue Nile, without an agreement with the downstream countries, would naturally lead to major disruptions, whether in the form of water receding or sudden floods.
The Mufti stressed that the demand of both Sudan and Egypt remains to reach a legally binding agreement that regulates the rules for filling and operating the Renaissance Dam, as it is the basic guarantee to avoid potential harm to the downstream countries.
He added that there are other issues that are no less important, including the safety of the dam and water security, noting that Ethiopia agreed to the principle of water security in the Entebbe Agreement, but did not accept including it in the Declaration of Principles on the Renaissance Dam signed in 2015.
The Mufti believes that Sudan’s continued demand for a legally binding agreement reflects, in his view, the lack of prior coordination regarding the dam’s operating procedures. He stressed that the water level will eventually return to its normal levels, but it may rise rapidly, increasing the likelihood of floods that are more damaging than the current receding water level.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in Africa, and since its construction began in 2011, it has sparked a dispute between Ethiopia on one side, and Egypt and Sudan on the other, regarding the rules for filling and operating the reservoir.
For years, Egypt and Sudan have been demanding a legally binding agreement that defines the mechanisms for filling and operating the dam, ensuring the minimization of potential harm to the Nile's water flow, especially during periods of drought and prolonged dry spells. Ethiopia, on the other hand, asserts its right to utilize its water resources for electricity generation, while maintaining that the dam will not cause significant harm to the downstream countries.
Negotiations sponsored by regional and international parties over the past years have seen multiple rounds, but have not yet resulted in a final agreement regulating the operation of the dam, leaving the issue as one of the most prominent water issues in the region.
