Russian expert Anatoly Tikhonov warned of the possibility of damage to the rice crop in India due to the El Niño climate phenomenon, which could lead to a jump in global rice prices not seen since the 2008 crisis.
Anatoly Tikhonov, director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Russian Presidential Academy, said: "India is the world leader in rice consumption and export. A lack of moisture during the grain-filling stage in August and September could lead to a decrease in the overall crop volume."
He added in a statement to the Novosti news agency: "The rice market is highly fragmented and sensitive to shortages, so any shortfall of between 15 and 20 million tons in global trade causes panic jumps in prices."
He noted that the El Niño phenomenon is likely to damage India’s rice crop, followed by a jump in global prices to their highest levels since the 2008 global food crisis, as a result of the expected deficit.
Last June, UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced that the El Niño phenomenon was 90% likely to develop in the coming months and would "add fuel to the fire of global warming." He also noted that this climate phenomenon could disrupt food and water systems.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has already warned that El Niño could weaken the summer monsoon winds across much of India, putting pressure on rice and maize cultivation during the crucial growing season.
India supplies 40% of the world's rice market, and rice is primarily grown in the eastern and northern states of the country, such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Odisha, and Bihar. However, these regions are particularly vulnerable to El Niño, a phenomenon that can cause drought during August and September, thus reducing the overall harvest.
Analyst Tikhonov noted that India had already imposed a ban on the export of broken rice, as well as a 20% customs duty on white rice exports. He emphasized, "Given the weak monsoon season, these measures could be tightened, potentially leading to a complete ban on non-basmati rice exports, as happened in 2023."
It is expected that if India imposes a complete ban on rice exports, global prices could reach $700-$750 per ton. This would be an all-time high not seen since the 2008 food crisis.
Meanwhile, the Russian rice market is completely self-sufficient with domestic production. Tikhonov emphasized that "even in the most unfavorable seasons, Russia's rice harvest exceeds the country's total needs by more than one and a half times. The safety margin is enormous."
The total rice harvest in 2025 was approximately 1.19-1.24 million tons. However, annual domestic consumption of rice grains, according to estimates by the National Rice Federation, including newly developed areas, does not exceed 798,000 tons.
