Reuters: Oil losses in the US war on Iran are below the levels of the 1979 crisis

Reuters calculations show that the US war on Iran caused the biggest daily shock to oil supplies in history, while the 1979 Iranian revolution remains the biggest in terms of cumulative losses.

These calculations were based on data from the International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the U.S. Department of Energy.

The US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28th disrupted supplies of crude oil, natural gas, refined fuels and fertilizers together, revealing weaknesses resulting from decades of high demand, globalization of trade and the growing role of the Middle East as a supplier of final fuels.

Although the shocks of the 1970s reshaped energy policies and led to the creation of the International Energy Agency to coordinate emergency stockpiles, the agency responded in the recent war by releasing a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to calm the markets.

The agency reported that supply losses peaked at over 14 million barrels per day, or about 13.6% of the projected global demand of 103.3 million barrels per day. This far exceeds previous crises, which saw losses of 4.5 million barrels per day during the Arab oil embargo of 1973–1974, 5.6 million barrels per day during the Iranian Revolution, and 4.3 million barrels per day during the 1991 Gulf War.

The impact extended to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, where approximately one-fifth of Qatar's production was halted, and the disruption to Gulf refineries led to shortages of diesel and jet fuel. Argus Media estimates that the outage affected roughly 24 million tons of LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE, representing about 5.6% of the projected 2025 global LNG trade of 428 million tons.

The International Energy Agency indicated on May 13 that cumulative losses from Gulf producers had exceeded one billion barrels. Including the 14 million barrels per day lost during the 35 days between May 14 and the interim agreement on June 17, Reuters estimates the losses at around 1.5 billion barrels. The disruptions are expected to continue for months, and possibly years, for gas production.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimated that Iranian production fell by about 3.9 million barrels per day between 1978 and 1981, equivalent to a cumulative loss of approximately 4.3 billion barrels over three years. The Arab oil embargo of 1973–1974 removed between 530 and 650 million barrels from the market, while the 1991 Gulf War resulted in cumulative losses of approximately 516 million barrels—figures lower than those resulting from the current crisis.