Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that Israel has no interest in joining the conflict between the United States and Iran, emphasizing that the current situation is best for Israel. In media statements on Tuesday, he added that it is important to remember that Israel's ultimate goal – which may not necessarily be the American goal – is to destabilize and weaken the Iranian regime, ultimately leading to its downfall.
In contrast, media sources quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that Israel is not rushing into war and is waiting for a suitable pretext, as well as the position of US President Donald Trump. If he desires war, Israel will join; if not, it will remain on the sidelines. The Hebrew news site Ynet quoted high-ranking Israeli sources as estimating that no agreement will be reached between Washington and Tehran, suggesting that war is likely to break out next September. The site added that these senior officials believe the Israeli army is waiting for the opportunity to complete its mission, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not directly pushing for war himself. Netanyahu and his government assume that the conditions for joining the war are imminent and that the final decision rests with Trump, emphasizing that Iran will pay a price many times greater than the death of each American soldier.
Benjamin Netanyahu is not directly pushing himself into the battle, as he and his government assume that the motives for joining the war are imminent, and that the decision rests with Trump.
For his part, Maariv newspaper's military analyst, Avi Ashkenazi, believes that "the celebrations are over," and that Trump is nearing the moment when he will declare war on Iran after the two sides reached a crossroads requiring a decisive decision. Ashkenazi added that the Americans are acting with impotence, while Israel appears ready to capitalize on any misstep by Iran to launch its own attack, and possesses a secret plan for the day after. This likely aligns with what Smotrich indicated regarding Israel's objective of toppling the Iranian regime.
These developments come amid numerous indications that Netanyahu is seeking to ignite a large-scale war in the region, in an attempt to deliver a more severe blow to Iran that would set it back decades and end its threats, while at the same time securing a lifeline that would ensure his continued rule and preserve his place in the memory of Israelis and history.
Four achievements
For his part, the head of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and former head of military intelligence, reserve general Tamir Hayman, considered that Iran had recorded several achievements for itself in the confrontation with the United States and Israel, warning of its success in diverting attention from its nuclear file.
In an article published on Israel's Channel 12 website, Hyman explained that Iran is working to solidify its narrative of "victory" by establishing four strategic achievements: the regime's survival and stability, control of the Strait of Hormuz, imposing restrictions on Israel regarding Hezbollah, and preserving its nuclear program. Tehran considers these achievements far more important than a ceasefire or negotiations, which it views as a form of concession to the West.
Iran seeks to keep tensions under control; given its complete distrust of President Trump and the United States, Tehran has adopted a strategy of preferring to keep the embers of confrontation burning at a relatively low level.
Hyman added that Iran is interested in keeping tensions under control. Given its complete distrust of President Trump and the United States, Tehran has adopted a strategy of maintaining a relatively low level of confrontation. In return for these gains, Iran has established red lines guiding its actions: any attempt to overthrow the regime or incite an uprising against it will be met with extreme violence, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must proceed according to Iranian rules and without American interference. On the northern front, Tehran stipulates that Israel must not launch an attack on Beirut or a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah, asserting that if such an attack occurs, Iran will retaliate directly from its territory against northern Israel, acting on the orders of the Supreme Leader.
The Israeli researcher pointed to several conclusions, most notably that as long as the confrontation remains confined to the Strait of Hormuz and at its current level, Israel is likely to remain outside it, while targeting vital national infrastructure could broaden the scope of the confrontation. He also noted that the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon continues in parallel with the political process, but that a missile launch or a drone attack could end this situation.
As long as the confrontation remains confined to the Strait of Hormuz and at its current level, Israel is likely to remain outside of it.
Hyman concluded by warning that the most important issue for Israel is the Iranian nuclear program, which is not receiving enough attention at the moment, pointing to reports resulting from the lack of oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the worrying progress in this file since the Twelve-Day War, as Iran exploits events to keep the focus on other issues.
The mystery of “Mountain of Pickaxes”
Ron Ben-Yishai, a military analyst for the newspaper Yediot Aharonot, questioned the reasons preventing the United States and Israel from attacking the “Mount of the Pickaxes” site, and the possible timeframe for such an attack to be carried out.
In response to this question, Ben-Yishai explained that since the fall of 2025, Western intelligence agencies have observed the transfer of enrichment equipment to a facility dug deep inside a mountain, considered impervious to conventional airstrikes. He noted that it remains unclear whether the purpose of this underground facility is simply to protect the equipment or to begin uranium enrichment and the development of a nuclear weapon.
The Israeli analyst believes that targeting this facility requires careful preparation, and that the timing of the attack is governed by several strategic variables, most notably: the receipt of intelligence confirming the start of actual work inside the underground facility, the completion of filling the giant American bomb depots designated for deep penetration, and the development of a highly accurate and coordinated attack plan.
Ben-Yishai added that Western, American and Israeli intelligence agencies preferred to maintain complete secrecy about these details, before President Trump recently revealed the secret during a media interview, in response to a question about Washington's plans to attack the mountain.
He concluded by noting that although there is no information confirming that Iran has actually installed enrichment equipment inside the mountain so far, satellite images show that engineering work is continuing in its vicinity to further fortify the entrances, ensuring their continued use and access even if they are subjected to aerial bombardment, as well as remaining accessible to any invading ground forces.
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