Egyptian citizens are experiencing a state of anxiety due to the low rainfall rates in the Nile sources during the current flood season, at a time when official statements have emerged describing the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as illegal, and accusing Addis Ababa of managing the dam “in a politicized manner” through unilateral actions against Egypt and Sudan.
Politicized administration
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aty confirmed that Ethiopia continues to act unilaterally in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file, without coordination with the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, and in violation of the rules of international law governing transboundary waterways.
Egypt believes that Ethiopia has managed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in a politicized manner over the past years, without coordinating with the downstream countries, which has negatively impacted the flow of the Nile River.
During a press conference with Mozambican Foreign Minister Maria Manuela Lucas, he said that international law clearly regulates the management of international rivers, but Ethiopia has managed the Renaissance Dam in a politicized manner over the past years, without coordination with the downstream countries, which has negatively affected the flow of the Nile River.
He explained that impounding water without agreement or coordination led to a decrease in the river levels, which affected efforts to provide drinking water to citizens. He pointed out that opening the dam gates without prior notification caused flooding in areas within Sudan, and also caused disturbances in water levels within Egypt.
He stressed that Egypt supports Ethiopia’s right to development, but rejects that this should be done at the expense of the rights of the downstream countries, stressing that Ethiopia has the right to development, and Egypt has the right to life.
In this context, the Permanent Committee for Regulating the Nile River Inflow held its periodic meeting, chaired by Hani Sweilem, the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, to follow up on the Nile River Inflow and the water situation, as part of the ongoing monitoring of the period of peak water needs.
The committee reviewed the developments in the operation of the Ethiopian dam, which it described as “illegal” and in violation of international law, and the disturbances and changes in discharge rates that have occurred in the past period as a result of the continued unilateral management of the dam, in the absence of clear operating rules and a regular mechanism for exchanging data through a legally binding agreement between Ethiopia and the downstream countries.
The committee indicated that this situation requires the operators of dams and water facilities located behind the dam to continuously review and update their operating scenarios, in order to ensure the maintenance of efficient water resource management and to deal with various hydrological variables.
The committee reviewed the rainfall situation on the sources of the Nile and the quantities of water coming from the Blue Nile, the White Nile and the Atbara River, and said that the indicators showed that the water inflow during the past month of June was higher than its average, while the inflow during the current month of July recorded rates lower than the average.
The committee emphasized that these indicators do not currently allow for an accurate assessment of the year's flood situation. A clearer picture is expected after the first ten days of August, coinciding with the arrival of a significant portion of the Blue Nile's flow during the second half of July and the beginning of August. This is particularly relevant given that the Blue Nile's flow during the last ten days of July represents approximately 50% of the month's total flow. The committee also explained that the accuracy of flood forecasting gradually increases as the rainy season progresses and more hydrological and climatological data become available.
The committee followed up on the latest indicators issued by regional and international climate centers regarding the development of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their potential impacts on rainfall patterns in a number of regions of the world, including East Africa.
The committee stressed that these indicators represent one of the important elements taken into account when preparing seasonal forecasts, but their impact on the rainfall of the Nile Basin remains linked to a range of climatic and regional factors, which necessitates continued monitoring and periodic updating of forecasts as the rainy season progresses, and linking them to actual monitoring data received from various areas of the basin.
The committee explained that the Nile River has a changing hydrological nature, as its behavior experiences natural fluctuations at the daily and seasonal levels. Therefore, assessing the water situation depends on the integrated analysis of various hydrological and climatic indicators, and not on short-term changes alone, in order to ensure that operational decisions are made on accurate scientific grounds.
High Dam
Sweilem emphasized that Egypt's water resources management system relies on real-time monitoring of all hydrological and climatic indicators, as well as the dynamic operation of water infrastructure, enabling efficient handling of various hydrological scenarios. He also stressed that the High Dam will remain a bulwark of security for Egyptians and the cornerstone of Egyptian water security, possessing storage and operational capacities that allow it to cope with diverse hydrological conditions and ensure the fulfillment of water needs for all uses.
He pointed to the continuation of work and continuous follow-up in all departments of the ministry at the level of the republic, and coordination between the various concerned authorities, to ensure the fulfillment of water needs, and to deal immediately and effectively with any developments, in order to ensure the stability and efficiency of the water resources management system.
Likewise, Engineer Sameh Abdel Rahman, Vice President of the Nile Water Sector at the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, said that Egypt is not facing a water crisis, denying what is being said about the Blue Nile being exposed to a wave of drought or an effective decrease in flood rates during the coming period, noting that the full picture of the flood season will become clear by the end of next August, in light of the daily monitoring of climate changes and the continuation of the Ethiopian dam crisis.
He explained in televised remarks that the Ethiopian and Equatorial plateaus experience three rainy seasons throughout the year.
He explained that the end of August each year represents the period during which the full picture of the flood season becomes clear, given that it accounts for about 50% of the Blue Nile's flow. He stressed that flood rates usually start in a limited way, then gradually increase during the months of August and September. He accused Ethiopia of not adhering to the agreements for coordinating the operation of the dam with the downstream countries, which increases the uncertainty regarding the management of shared water resources.
years of drought
Nader Nour El-Din, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, warned of the beginning of a decline in the flow of water from the Nile River with the onset of “drought years” on the Ethiopian plateau.
In televised remarks, he stated that this year is one of the lean years that occur at a rate of 7 times every 20 years, noting that the flows of the Blue Nile may decrease from 50 billion cubic meters to only between 20 and 24 billion, which necessitates giving priority to passing water to thirsty peoples instead of generating electricity.
He stated that the disputes between Egypt and Sudan with the Ethiopian side centered on the need to reduce electricity production by 20% during lean years, in exchange for passing larger quantities of water, criticizing Addis Ababa’s insistence on storing water first in the dam’s reservoir and then using it to generate electricity before it reaches Sudan and Egypt.
He added that global water organizations and meteorological agencies have warned of the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, which reduces the formation of rain clouds over the Ethiopian highlands and the Horn of Africa, which is reflected in the flows of rivers that feed the Nile River.
Nader Nour El-Din, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, warned of a decline in the flow of the Nile River with the onset of “drought years” on the Ethiopian plateau.
He pointed out that Sudan did not receive any quantities of the July and August flood, which usually amounts to 12 billion cubic meters, which led to the drying up of the river and the disruption of drinking water stations such as the Al-Salha station south of Omdurman and stations in the city of Bahri, and citizens were forced to stand in queues to obtain water from mobile tanks.
He stressed that Ethiopian intransigence is reflected in the High Dam reservoir, as it is the river's outlet from which water is distributed for agriculture, industry, consumption and navigation, emphasizing that the High Dam represents a strategic shield for Egypt, and that the current reservoir is sufficient for the country for no less than 5 years.
He called on Ethiopia to respond to the Egyptian and Sudanese demands and release at least half of the usual quantities during the two flood months, stressing that human life is more important than electricity, and that continued intransigence threatens water security in Sudan and affects water supplies to Egypt.
The total storage capacity of the High Dam Lake (Lake Nasser) is about 162 billion cubic meters, and Egypt relied on it to meet its water needs during the drought that lasted between the years 1981 and 1987.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project was launched in 2011 with a budget of $4 billion. Negotiations have failed over the years, and Egypt and Sudan insist on reaching a legally binding agreement regarding the operation of the dam.
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