A study conducted by scientists from the National Research University "Higher School of Economics" showed that raising the minimum retail price of cigarettes is more effective in reducing tobacco consumption than imposing sales quotas.
The university's press office noted that this conclusion was reached by Dr. Lyudmila Zasimova, Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, and Dr. Alina Biryukova, Analyst at the university's Center for Structural Policy Research.
According to the office, the researchers analyzed data from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for 82 Russian regions between 2011 and 2023, encompassing 1,066 observations. The study revealed that the average smoker purchases 2.9 packs of cigarettes per month, spending approximately 176 rubles (at 2011 prices), representing roughly 3.6% of their total consumer spending.
The study showed that cigarette consumption varies considerably between Russian regions; the lowest smoking rates were recorded in the North Caucasus region, where consumption ranged between 0.06 and 1.26 packs per month, while the highest rates were recorded in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Kamchatka, where consumption reached about 9 packs per month.
The researchers found that price elasticity of demand was negative, meaning that a 1% decrease in cigarette purchasing power leads to a decrease in the quantity purchased, but smokers' spending increases by 0.28%. This suggests that many smokers are not quitting but are simply switching to cheaper brands. Furthermore, a 1% increase in real income leads to a 0.24% increase in consumption. This implies that reducing smoking rates requires raising prices at a faster rate than population income growth.
Biryukova said: "Between 2009 and 2016, the percentage of smokers in Russia decreased from 39.4% to 30.9%. But this trend has stalled over the last ten years, as some smokers are adapting to higher prices by switching to cheaper brands or illegal products."
According to the two researchers, the main tool for anti-smoking policy is setting a uniform selling price for all types of cigarette packs, noting that achieving tangible results requires raising prices at a rate that exceeds the rate of increase in the population's income.
