Since 1983, a strange theory has been generating heated debate among scientists, which states that since humans are not special in the universe, we are most likely living in the middle of human history and not at its beginning or end.
Based on mathematical calculations, the theory known as the "Doomsday Argument" concluded that humanity has only about 17,100 years left before extinction. However, this conclusion has been strongly opposed by many experts who question its accuracy.
, the secret of the greatest extinction in Earth's history has been solved, along with a shocking warning for our future.
After 252 million years of mystery, the secret of the greatest extinction in Earth's history has been solved, along with a shocking warning for our future.
What is the "argument of the Day of Judgment"?
The theory is based on the idea that humans do not occupy a privileged position in the universe or in history; that is, we should not assume that we live in an unusually early or late stage of human existence.
The calculation relies on a person's position in the timeline of all humans who have ever lived as a statistical indicator of how many people might come after him.
Scientists estimate that approximately 117 billion people have lived on Earth so far. They assume there is a 95% probability that we are not among the top 5% of all humans who will ever be born. Therefore, their calculations suggest that the total number of humans who will ever live is unlikely to exceed 2.34 trillion.
At current birth rates, this number will be reached in about 17,100 years, i.e., in the year 19,126.
But the important point here is that the theory doesn't say humanity will inevitably become extinct by that date; rather, it indicates a 95% probability that extinction will occur before reaching that total number. Essentially, it's a warning about the limitations of assuming our species will continue indefinitely.
The mathematics behind the theory doesn't attempt to explain what might cause extinction. But scientists typically discuss several potential risks, including nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, asteroid impacts, artificial intelligence, and other global catastrophes. Some researchers even suggest that future threats might come from technologies or events that don't yet exist or are unknown, making them impossible to predict.
Since its inception, the doomsday argument has faced numerous objections from scientists and mathematicians, who consider its underlying assumptions highly uncertain. The future population, for example, is not random but could be significantly influenced by factors such as declining birth rates, medical advancements, economic changes, and technological development.
Critics also argue that the argument fails to consider the possibility of human expansion beyond Earth. If future generations establish permanent settlements on other planets, humanity's long-term survival might look very different from the scenario envisioned by the theory. Even researchers who support the idea generally describe it as a mathematical exercise to encourage discussion about humanity's future, not an inevitable countdown to extinction.
This isn't the only study attempting to explore humanity's future. A study published in August 2025, using probabilities to predict what awaits us, found that we have just over 300 years before we say goodbye to humanity. It states that by 2139 the world's population will be between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion, and by 2339 there will be no humans left at all.
Debate continues as to whether the doomsday argument is truly a useful way to think about the future of humanity. For now, it is best viewed as an interesting piece of probability theory, rather than a definitive warning that civilization has a predetermined end date.
