A study by a group of Israeli researchers led by settlement and map expert Shaul Arieli (“Geopolitical Signal Group”) confirms that the number of settlements in the West Bank is increasing significantly , but this does not necessarily mean that they are becoming stronger, more resilient, and more permanent.
A study by the research group specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict points to a constantly widening gap between rapid settlement geographic expansion and the demographic, functional, and municipal resilience, which is not developing at the same pace.
The study, “The Settlement System in the West Bank: Central Variables, Trends, Strengths and Weaknesses,” states that between 2010 and 2020 there was a relative stability in the number of settlements belonging to regional councils within the West Bank, but the last five years have witnessed a significant increase, as the number of settlements increased from 105 settlements in 2010 to 149 settlements in 2025.
In the last five years, the number of settlements has increased significantly, rising from 105 settlements in 2010 to 149 settlements in 2025.
The study explains that most of the increase is concentrated in the southern West Bank and the Jordan Valley, noting that, in contrast, the number of settlement cities remained at four throughout the period, as did the number of Jewish local authorities in the West Bank.
The study concludes that the essence of development is not urban, nor does it reflect the construction of large new settlement complexes , but rather the fattening and expansion of the settlement system by means of “regional councils,” small settlements, and outposts.
The study, in which a large number of researchers specializing in conflict and settlement participate, sees that the most prominent data relates to settlement outposts, as the number of settlement outposts within the “regional councils” reached about 95 outposts in 2010, and remained at the same number in 2015, but it rose to 131 settlement outposts in 2020, and jumped to 238 settlement outposts in 2025.
This means, according to the Israeli researchers in this study, that the number of outposts increased between 2010 and 2025 by 143 settlement outposts, especially in the Hebron and Bethlehem areas and the Palestinian Jordan Valley.
Thus, settlement outposts become a central component in shaping the geographical spread of settlements, even though they do not necessarily produce a stable demographic base, complete services, or the potential for sustainable municipal services.
The study continues in this regard: “This is precisely where a map with many settlement points can mislead those who confuse a field presence with a settlement system that performs its functions.”
This Israeli study says that demographically, most settlements within the occupied West Bank have remained small, while the majority of settlers are concentrated in a few large civilian settlements, especially Modi'in Illit, Beitar Illit, Ma'ale Adumim, Ariel, and Givat Ze'ev, which are home to half of the settlers.
Hence, the study concludes the need to distinguish between geographical settlement expansion and demographic weight.
She adds in this regard: “The small settlements are expanding and spreading, but their population center of gravity has remained limited and concentrated. This is a two-headed structure: on the one hand, there is an increasing number of small settlements, outposts and settlement farms, and on the other hand there are a few large, crowded settlement complexes with real population weight.”
The study also indicates that the natural increase in settlements is not homogeneous.
She says that in 2025 the picture of settlement appeared more complex than in the past, as in addition to settlements that continue to increase at a large pace, the number of settlements that are experiencing low natural growth, stagnation, or numerical decline is also increasing.
Alongside settlements that continue to grow at a rapid pace, the number of settlements experiencing low natural growth, stagnation, or numerical decline is also increasing.
The study adds here: “Natural increase remained the driver of the larger steady increase, especially in the large settlement complexes that are characterized by a large number of young people, while the migration balance, especially internal migration, is weaker, or even negative in some of these settlements.”
The study concludes that the natural increase within the settlements of the occupied West Bank does not necessarily stem from a large influx of new settlers, but in many cases from natural increase and the age structure of the settlers.
Immigration from outside the country is a limited and secondary component, and does not affect or change the overall picture.
The study draws attention to the role of Orthodox Jewish settlers (Haredim), especially in the West Bank and around Jerusalem, in increasing the number of their settlements and increasing overcrowding in them due to high birth rates, but they do not provide a demographic solution for all settlements because of their small percentage (Haredim constitute 13% of Israel’s population).
In addition to the weakness of the population system in the settlements, the study points to a functional and municipal problem, as there is no clear settlement hierarchy between settlement cities, medium settlements, small settlements and outposts, and there is not enough investment in providing housing and sources of work.
She continues: “In practice, part of the settlement system provides temporary shelter, where settlers reside, but they work and receive municipal services from within the Green Line.”
Thus, in the field of transportation, the study notes a structural weakness. Instead of strengthening public transportation hubs between population centers, investment tends to serve small settlement points scattered throughout the length and breadth of the West Bank.
Despite the transfer of large government budgets to settlements during the current occupation government, the study concludes in its central conclusion that the settlement project is expanding rapidly, but it is not necessarily turning into a stable, homogeneous, and sustainable system.
She says that the large number of settlements and outposts strengthens control over space, but does not guarantee demographic, economic and municipal immunity.
She adds: “If these trends continue, it is expected that in the next decade the process of distinguishing between geographical settlement expansion and continuous demographic growth will become more urgent: more settlement points and outposts on the ground, but most of the population will remain concentrated mainly in large, young and crowded communities. In other words, this system will be broader, but not necessarily stronger; more widespread, but not necessarily more stable; and a greater presence on the ground, but not necessarily a permanent state in terms of population and functions.”
