The British newspaper The Telegraph published an analysis by David Blair, its senior foreign affairs commentator, in which he asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin, stuck in a predicament with Ukraine, may find himself forced to consider the dangerous option of escalation with NATO in order to undermine the Western alliance.
The writer considered that the war in Ukraine had reached a stage of mutual attrition, where Russia was achieving limited field gains in exchange for significant human losses, amid daily estimates of the number of dead and wounded reaching about a thousand people, at a time when the influx of new recruits was not covering these losses.
Given this situation, the writer believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may face increasing pressure that will push him to consider what is known as “horizontal escalation,” that is, expanding the scope of the conflict to include other countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), such as Poland, in an attempt to break the military stalemate that Russia is suffering from.
The analysis indicates that, as a result of the attrition, the Kremlin finds itself facing an escalating military predicament that is pushing it to seek options outside the traditional battlefield, with the aim of splitting NATO ranks over how to respond, and creating a rift between the United States and Europe.
The author states that, based on American intelligence, some circles within the Russian military leadership may propose expanding the war by targeting what is called the “back area” of Ukraine, i.e., the European support network that provides funding and weapons to Kyiv, especially since Ukraine is heavily dependent on European support, while Russia is in turn exposed to internal attacks targeting its military and energy infrastructure.
Putin may face increasing pressure that will push him to consider what is known as “horizontal escalation,” that is, expanding the scope of the conflict to include other NATO countries such as Poland, in an attempt to break the military stalemate that Russia is suffering from.
He says that Russia is already carrying out “hybrid warfare” operations in Europe, including acts of sabotage, arson, electronic jamming and indirect attacks, but it has not achieved the strategic goal of stopping Western support for Ukraine, and on the contrary, has contributed to strengthening this support in some cases.
It also suggests that the relative decline in US support under President Donald Trump’s administration has placed a greater burden on Europe to support Kyiv, which may tempt Putin to move from indirect warfare to limited military strikes against NATO countries, with the aim of testing the alliance’s cohesion and provoking a rift between the United States and Europe.
Poland is presented as one of the most prominent possible scenarios, whether through drone attacks on infrastructure, limited operations, or even a small ground incursion from Belarus or Kaliningrad.
Sources close to Polish President Karol Navrutski said that Russia might target vital infrastructure in Poland or carry out a limited ground incursion, based on warnings from US officials.
The author emphasizes that these scenarios involve significant risks, because any direct attack on a NATO member state could lead to a swift and decisive response, and might not go through the alliance’s traditional consultation mechanisms. Moreover, such an escalation could backfire by strengthening NATO unity and increasing military support for Ukraine instead of weakening it.
The author concludes that, despite these pressures, Putin is still clinging to the option of trying to achieve a victory within Ukraine itself, but the continued stalemate and attrition may eventually push him to consider a broader escalation beyond the current war, making the risk of expanding the conflict with NATO a real, though not decisively imminent, possibility.
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