Israel is closely monitoring developments between Tehran and Abu Dhabi, and considers the Strait of Hormuz a vital economic artery for Abu Dhabi, and believes that economic interests are driving it to reduce tensions with Tehran.
Well-informed diplomatic sources confirm the accuracy of the Israeli assessment of what is happening between Tehran and Abu Dhabi, coinciding with initial indications of a breakthrough in relations between the two sides, most notably the resumption of flights by Flydubai and Emirates Airlines crossing Iranian airspace after months of suspension due to military escalation.
Israel believes this move is fundamentally linked to Abu Dhabi's economic interests, as the Strait of Hormuz holds particular importance for the UAE as a vital economic artery. These pressing economic interests are driving the UAE to restore air traffic and trade and reduce tensions with Tehran.
Despite this rapprochement, diplomatic sources confirm that security cooperation between Israel and the UAE has "deepened considerably" since the outbreak of the war with Iran, and has included the transfer of the Iron Dome system to the UAE and the presence of Israeli soldiers to operate it.
The sources add that the joint security structure has not been affected by the rapprochement with Tehran, and that Abu Dhabi still sees its relations with Israel and the United States as a strategic asset.
Meanwhile, tensions with Iran remain high. In less than a week, three ships linked to ADNOC were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE accusing Iran of being behind the attacks. Abu Dhabi has also paid a heavy price during the confrontation, with civilian and economic infrastructure damaged and Dubai Airport experiencing repeated disruptions.
Israel assesses that Abu Dhabi is attempting to strike a delicate balance: maintaining its security partnership with Israel and the United States while simultaneously minimizing friction with Iran. The UAE is also closely monitoring regional developments, including the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Sources confirm that the situation is not yet settled, and that future developments depend on Iran's behavior. Should Tehran resume developing its military capabilities, Israel may be forced to reconsider its military options.
Thus, the return of Emirati aircraft to Iranian airspace appears to be a cautious step towards restoring relations with Tehran, without implying a decline in the partnership with Israel and the United States.
