The Jordanian political message announced to be directed to the Iraqi government, entitled “If we are attacked, we will respond this time,” is not limited to the official discourse of the government in Amman, but rather key indicators have begun to gather of support from a broad national political elite for the option of responding to any escalation by Iraqi factions against Jordan from now on.
The most prominent figure who established the new indicator in the message over two days was the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, the parliamentary leader Khamis Attia, who told Al-Ghad TV on Sunday afternoon that his country “yes, will respond to any attempt to compromise its security, originating from Iraqi armed groups loyal to Iran.”
Attia revealed that the Iraqi side had been officially notified.
Beyond that, no statement has been issued by the Jordanian government detailing and explaining the political and security warning message that was clearly sent to the office of the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali Faleh al-Zaidi.
It is clear that those who spoke about or interpreted that message were leaders representing the Jordanian people, most notably Attia. Among them was Senator General Hussein Hawatmeh, whose statements were interpreted as primarily a deterrent, intended to signal to the Iraqis that Jordan does not desire escalation.
General Al-Hawatma considered the Jordanian political message to be a precursor to any response and aimed at deterring any attempt at aggression and preventing further escalation, while Attia insists that Jordan will not allow its security and stability to be compromised.
The direct reasons behind the official Jordanian message from the Iraqi side are not yet known, but in diagnosis and analysis what is happening indicates that the Jordanian authorities have formed an impression that any new American military move against Iran may end with the activity of armed Iraqi factions targeting Jordan and several other Arab countries, to raise the cost of the military alliance with the Americans.
Amman here has clearly informed the al-Zaidi government that Jordan will respond militarily in the event of missiles or armed aircraft being directed from Iraq, not at the Iraqi government, but at armed faction groups.
It is not yet clear what operational formula Jordan can adopt here, even if the message is deterrent.
The intended targets are most likely specific factions that issue statements against Jordan from time to time, and even send drones based on some data, including the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and the Iraqi version of “Hezbollah”.
The Jordanian warning here ends the state of accommodating silence in the face of armed movements by Iraqi factions.
That is a turning point, a dramatic and unprecedented shift in Jordanian-Iraqi relations that has never been experienced before.
But the statements of the Jordanian parliamentarians indicate a response to an attack if it is repeated, meaning a new deterrent equation so that things do not develop in the context of the eastern Jordanian front where the border is with Iraq.
