The world is approaching a date that has been controversial for more than six decades, after scientists in 1960 set November 13, 2026 as a hypothetical date for what they called "Doomsday" for humanity.
This is based on a mathematical model that predicted the continued acceleration of the world's population growth until, mathematically speaking, their number reaches infinity.
But this date does not actually mean the end of the world, nor does it represent a modern scientific prediction of human extinction. Rather, it refers to a mathematical point at which the model used becomes inapplicable in reality.
Austrian physicist Heinz von Förster and his colleagues published their study in the journal Science in 1960, after analyzing 24 historical estimates of the world's population spanning about two thousand years, and noting that the periods required for the population to double were gradually shrinking.
Based on this trend, the researchers assumed that continued growth at the same rate would eventually lead to the period between each doubling shrinking to zero, at which point the equation would reach an unlimited mathematical result.
The researchers dubbed this point "Doomsday," and the study was titled "Doomsday: Friday, November 13, 2026." It stated that the world's population would approach infinity on that date if growth continued at the rate of the previous two thousand years.
The world's population at the time of the study's publication was just over three billion, while it currently stands at approximately 8.2 billion. However, the most significant factor is that the rate of population growth has changed dramatically over the past six decades.
The global population growth rate peaked at approximately 2.2% in 1963, before declining to about 0.84% in 2026, according to estimates from the US Census Bureau. This represents a decrease of roughly 62% compared to its peak.
The world's population doubled approximately every 32 years at the growth rates prevalent in the 1960s. At the current rate, it would take about 83 years for the world's population to double.
This change is the main reason why demographers today do not consider von Forster's prediction a reliable forecast of the future. The model developed in the 1960s assumed the continuation of a certain trend, while subsequent data showed that this trend had begun to slow down significantly.
The researchers based their study on 24 independent estimates of the world's population, covering the period from birth until 1958. They chose to use global data to minimize the impact of factors such as wars, migration, and local changes that might affect population figures in specific regions.
After eliminating some estimates that appeared to be influenced by the same sources, the team used a statistical method to select the curve that best matched the remaining data. They found that the model was able to describe the historical population figures with a margin of error of approximately 7%.
But the problem arose when using the curve to predict the future. Extending it beyond the available data led to a mathematical point in late 2026 where the population becomes unlimited.
The selection of November 13th was not as precise as it might seem, as calculations indicated a margin of error of approximately five and a half years. Thus, the date was more a result of a mathematical model than a date that could be considered an actual prediction of humanity's future.
Another test revealed the limitations of the equation more clearly, since applying it to the past in reverse led to an illogical result that placed the appearance of the first hypothetical human about 200 billion years ago, i.e., before the creation of the universe itself.
The study authors acknowledged that such results are not possible, and that the model loses its validity when it is extended beyond the scope of the data on which it was built.
Therefore, the "doomsday" in Von Forster's study was not a date for the end of humanity, but a hypothetical mathematical point that the model assumed would be reached if a certain historical population trend continued unchanged.
