Chinese and American environmental scientists have discovered that expanding the construction of wind and solar power plants in China will lead to a 40 to 100 percent increase in the frequency of severe air pollution incidents.
Nature Geoscience magazine indicates that the reason, according to scientists, is due to the instability of renewable energy sources.
According to researchers, previous calculations indicate that replacing some coal-fired power plants with solar and wind power plants will lead to a significant reduction in air pollution in China. However, these projections do not take into account the impact of periods of downtime in renewable energy generation, which is crucial, especially during periods of low winds.
According to Shen Lu, an associate professor at Peking University, Chinese authorities are currently actively developing renewable energy and building a large number of solar and wind power plants. They hope these measures will reduce the share of coal-fired power plants from the current 62 percent to 20 percent of total generating capacity by 2060, which is expected to significantly improve air quality in most parts of China.
However, these projections do not account for the possibility of a sharp decline in solar and wind power output during cloudy or calm winds. Such conditions force energy companies to compensate for the shortfall by increasing the operation of coal-fired or other fossil fuel power plants, which release ash particles, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere.
To assess the environmental impact of these events, scientists created a computer model of China's energy system, allowing them to estimate average and peak emissions from thermal power plants, as well as their distribution patterns under various weather conditions. Using this model, the researchers calculated 24 scenarios in which coal-fired power plants had to compensate for sharp drops in clean energy production, lasting from several hours to three days.
They discovered that recurring shortages in clean energy production would lead to a sharp rise in air pollutant concentrations, despite the widespread deployment of wind turbines and solar panels. The frequency of these shortages could increase by 40 to 100 percent under various clean energy development scenarios, potentially placing a significant burden on the healthcare system due to rising rates of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
Therefore, researchers believe it is necessary to take this factor into account when developing plans for implementing and developing clean energy technologies.
