Tunisia is not commonly associated with countries that experience major earthquakes, but that does not mean it is without seismic activity, as it usually experiences scattered small and medium-strength tremors concentrated in areas with a complex geological structure related to the movement of tectonic plates in the Mediterranean region.
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This prevailing belief may have contributed to the scarcity of studies addressing seismic risk in Tunisia, a problem that a new study published in the journal Scientific African sought to solve by building scenarios of strong earthquakes that Tunisia could experience, and then calculating the amount of shaking that they might produce.
In their quest to build these scenarios, researchers from several Tunisian research institutions started from the past, collecting as much information as possible from historical and modern records about earthquakes that occurred in Tunisia and the surrounding areas. The number of earthquakes they entered into the database reached 2,323, with magnitudes ranging between 1.0 and 7.5, and some of them reached depths of about 67 kilometers.
The researchers then moved to a second stage, in which they divided the country into 13 seismic zones. This division was not based solely on earthquake locations, but also took into account several factors, including known or potential faults, geological structure, earthquake distribution, and the movement directions indicated by the mechanisms of seismic foci.
After completing this division, the researchers embarked on the most important part of the study, which was to determine the largest earthquake that could be considered predictable for each of the thirteen regions based on the available data.
One of the most notable findings of the researchers was that Tunisia is not homogeneous in terms of seismic risk, as the study showed a clear disparity in the expected levels of vibration between the regions of the country, with some areas being more exposed than others.
The study specifically identified four areas with a high seismic risk: "Southern Tunisian Atlas, particularly the Gafsa Basin," "Areas surrounding the Gulf of Gabes," "Gulf of Hammamet," and "Northeast Tunisia, particularly the Bizerte region."
The study also focused on the areas of "Marsa Douiba" in the far north of Tunisia within the governorate of Bizerte, and "Skhira" in eastern Tunisia within the governorate of Sfax, as they are candidates for nuclear facilities in Tunisia. The comparison showed that the expected seismic risk in Marsa Douiba is clearly higher than in Skhira within the scenarios studied.
From knowledge to planning
Therefore, the added value of this study lies in the fact that it may be useful in converting scientific knowledge about past earthquakes into information that can be used in planning for the future.
Dr. Sherif El-Hadi, head of the earthquakes department at the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics in Egypt, says, "Determining the location of important facilities requires not only knowing where earthquakes have occurred previously, but also estimating what might happen if a strong earthquake occurs in the future, and this is what the current study achieves."
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