Scientists have warned that a slowdown in one of the world's most important ocean current systems could threaten food production and raise global prices if the system reaches a breaking point due to climate change.
This system is known as the Atlantic Meridian Circulation (AMOC), a network of currents that transport warm water from the tropics towards the North Atlantic and Europe, and the Gulf Stream is a part of it.
Scientists fear that continued rising temperatures will weaken this system, potentially causing large areas of the Northern Hemisphere to cool and altering rainfall patterns, with direct repercussions for agriculture in several parts of the world.
In a new study that has not yet been peer-reviewed, scientists from the Alliance to Feed the Earth During Disasters (ALLFED) used a computer model to simulate the impact of the AMOC system slowing down over the next 100 years.
The simulation showed that after 50 years of the slowdown, global production of the most common varieties of wheat, corn, and rice could decline by 5.3%. However, some countries could suffer much greater losses, with production falling by as much as 19% in Germany and Ukraine, and around 12% in Canada
The United Kingdom, Scandinavia, and Canada may be among the most vulnerable areas, due to the expected drop in temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
Previous research suggests that a collapse of the AMOC system could lead to a decrease in average temperatures in Britain by approximately 3.4 degrees Celsius by 2080, compared to a scenario where the collapse does not occur. Rainfall between April and September could also decrease by about 123 mm, and the percentage of arable land could drop from approximately 32% to just 7%.
The risks are not limited to reduced production; crop shortages could lead to higher global food prices. Scientists estimate that prices could rise in the short term by as much as 40% above normal levels if the pace of climate change outpaces the ability of agricultural markets to adapt.
Scientists believe that addressing these repercussions will require relocating some crops to areas becoming more suitable for agriculture, while simultaneously maintaining international trade. They warned that imposing restrictions on food exports could exacerbate shortages and transform a production crisis in specific regions into a global food crisis.
Michael Henge, chief economist at ALLFED, said the world currently has no clear plan to deal with a possible collapse of the AMOC system, stressing that such a scenario would be "extremely catastrophic".
Studies indicate that the AMOC system may have slowed down over the past decades due to climate change, but scientists still disagree about the extent of this slowdown and the likelihood of the system reaching a complete breakdown point.
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