Last August set two new climate records, being the hottest and wettest on record, according to two published analyses by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather and meteorologist Ben Knowle.
The data showed that the average global temperature in August 2026 was 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the previous record set in August 2024 by 0.14 degrees Celsius.
The level of humidity in the atmosphere also recorded its highest rate since measurements began in 1940, with the depth of water suitable for precipitation reaching 2.74 centimeters.
The analyses attributed these two record numbers to two main factors: warming caused by human activity, and the return of the El Niño phenomenon with exceptional strength, with models predicting that it will peak next December with the Pacific Ocean warming by 4 degrees Celsius above normal, making it the strongest ever.
These conditions have exacerbated extreme weather phenomena in several regions around the world.
Scientists explain this by the "expanding atmospheric sponge" effect, where increased evaporation of water from the Earth's surface leads to the atmosphere trapping an additional 7% of moisture for every degree Celsius warmer. This moisture then acts as a greenhouse gas, further increasing the temperature, in a feedback loop amplified by El Niño.
Based on this data, Hosfather predicts that 2026 will be the hottest year on record with a 75% probability, while Noll expects humidity levels to continue breaking records until 2027, with a significant increase in heavy rainfall expected during the coming winter in America, Europe, East Asia, and South America.
Experts warn that climate change and El Niño will increase the frequency of extreme weather events in the coming months, especially in areas affected by drought and fires.
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