Climate scientists have warned that more than 450,000 people could die from the extra heat brought on by the "super El Niño" over the next six months, on top of the deaths already caused by the climate crisis.
These deaths will occur across vast areas of the world, from Indonesia to India, and from Nigeria to the United States. Further deaths are also expected due to droughts, wildfires, and floods associated with El Niño.
Heat-related deaths were estimated at the regional level (on a per-region basis), enabling researchers to identify areas where protective measures could be implemented. These measures included improving heat forecasting, establishing cooling centers for shelter, increasing the number of medical personnel during periods of extreme heat, and providing protection for outdoor workers.
The current El Niño event recorded its highest temperature ever on Monday, several months ahead of its expected peak. Scientists described the heat as "astonishing" and "Godzilla-level," a metaphor for the destructive power of the famous movie monster.
It should be noted that El Niño is actually a natural phenomenon, but global warming could make it worse.
Professor Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago, one of the report's authors, says that the estimate of 451,000 people is a large number that may be mind-numbing, but it is actually made up of real people: parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people who go to work, look after their families and live their lives.
The estimate covers the period from September to February 2027, which is when the current heat forecast ends, but high-heat deaths are expected to continue until June or July 2027.
Globally southern countries will experience the highest number of heat-related deaths over the next six months:
The Sahel countries, namely Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad: 66,800 additional deaths between September and February, compared to a normal year.
Southeast Asia: 19,400 additional deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 additional deaths in Indonesia.
India: 15,800 additional deaths.
Brazil: 13,300 additional deaths.
Researchers say the timing of these deaths will vary considerably between countries. Some will experience the highest number of deaths in the latter half of the forecast period, giving them more time to take necessary measures. These countries include
Nigeria: 15,400 additional deaths between December and February.
Indonesia: 10,400 additional deaths during the same period.
Brazil: 8,000 additional deaths during the same three months.
India: 7,400 additional deaths during the same period.
After February, researchers expect heat-related deaths to rise in the Northern Hemisphere.
Researchers liken El Niño to a "postcard from our future," because it is raising temperatures now to the level predicted for the climate crisis in 20 years. In other words, the extreme heat we are experiencing today will become the norm in two decades
Dr. Tama Carlton of the University of California, Berkeley said: "Increasing emergency response and improving the targeting of our efforts could save many lives this year. But in 20 years' time, when today's heat becomes the new normal, we don't want to be in a permanent state of emergency. We need to mobilize now to design, deploy, and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years to come
The projections were developed using peer-reviewed methods that tracked the month-by-month relationship between heat and additional heat-related deaths in 24,378 regions around the world, and then combined with El Niño-related heat-related projections, using the average monthly heat-related death toll between 1996 and 2025 as a baseline.
The World Food Programme warned in August that the effects of El Niño could push some 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up prices. A major El Niño event in 1877-1878 led to more than 50 million deaths from drought and famine, with India, Brazil, and China being particularly hard hit
Professor Frederike Otto of Imperial College London explains that the current El Niño is redistributing enormous amounts of energy in the climate system, which is dangerous because it is occurring over a climate system that has become warmer and more human-influenced.
She adds that in many places we will see extreme heat unlike anything we have seen before, with all its consequences for health, food security and water scarcity.
She points out that El Niño is a phenomenon that comes and goes, but as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, it occurs on a warmer baseline, making it more difficult for societies to deal with its consequences
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