The Economist magazine published a report on the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Syria, which lasted two days and ended on September 14, and described it as not being an ordinary diplomatic visit, given that Fidan, the former head of the intelligence service, represents a government that many in the region consider to have been an active supporter, and even sponsor, of the armed group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which overthrew the Syrian regime in December 2014.
One observer of Syrian affairs described Fidan's visit as "a victory tour, paving the way for a bigger victory tour," and as preparation for a visit that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon make to the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Fidan, a potential successor to Erdogan, met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and his Interior Minister.
The visit angered the Israeli government, which is concerned about Turkey's growing influence in Syrian affairs, as well as his statements that "Israel is the biggest threat that could destabilize Syria at the moment."
The magazine said that Erdogan's anticipated visit, almost two years after the victory of the Syrian revolution, may be a little late.
This may be due to al-Shar’s keenness to distance himself from the idea of being an agent of Turkey, or perhaps because Turkey was also waiting for the completion of last month’s agreement to dissolve the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces militia and integrate it into the Syrian army, given that Ankara is suspicious of any Kurdish group with separatist tendencies, and has been seeking to complete this agreement for some time. However, the timing of the visit may also reflect the escalating tension between Türkiye and Israel.
On August 18, Israel bombed the abandoned Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria.
Israel accused Syria of being “on the verge” of breaking the status quo on security matters “by allowing Turkish forces to deploy” at the airbase.
There is no evidence yet to suggest that Turkey has expanded its existing military presence inside Syria, but Israeli intelligence sources insist they have information about plans to deploy anti-aircraft batteries that could hinder Israeli operations. An Israeli security official stated, “We had to draw a red line.”
The magazine reported that there are disagreements within the Israeli intelligence apparatus regarding Turkey's intentions in Syria . Those who supported the strike, ordered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, point to the ideological affinity between Erdoğan and his party and the teachings of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as their open support for the Palestinian Hamas movement. Turkey recently signed a security agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and is playing a role in negotiations concerning the future of the Gaza Strip, with the aim, Israeli officials claim, of preserving Hamas's authority. These officials believe that any increase in Turkish influence in Syria can only pose a threat to Israel. This alleged threat is used to justify Israel's "buffer zone," a vast expanse of Syrian territory that Israel occupied when Bashar al-Assad's regime fell at the end of 2014.
Others argue that despite Erdoğan's deep animosity toward Israel, after more than a decade of civil war in Syria that has seen millions of refugees flee to Turkey, he does not want to exacerbate the unrest there. They maintain that Israel should be able to resolve its differences with Turkey, a NATO member and US ally.
“Turkey has a much longer border with Syria than Israel does, and has a major interest in its stability,” said Carmit Valensi, head of the Syria program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Israel needs to make it clear that it also has security interests there, but there should be diplomatic mechanisms to achieve this.”
The magazine notes that Turkey and Israel were close military allies and trading partners before Erdoğan came to power. They have yet to decide whether they can afford the consequences of hostility. The situation in Syria may force them to do so.
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