The heat wave in Qatar does not begin with just an extremely hot day. Behind the record temperatures, there is a complete atmospheric and ground system at work, consisting of a strong sun, dry soil, air descending from above, and clouds that are almost gone.
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When these factors coincide, not only does the heat become higher, but it is also more persistent.which tracked this system over 22 years, from 2003 to 2024, attempted to answer a fundamental question: How do heat waves form over Qatar? And what makes them persist?
In defining heat waves, researchers from Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar and King Abdullah University in Saudi Arabia relied on a simple statistical criterion: the continuation of the maximum temperature for at least 3 consecutive days at an exceptional level, similar temperatures are usually only recorded during the hottest 5% of days in the same period of the year.
In this way, the team monitored 32 Qatari heat waves during the studied period. Each wave lasted between 3 and 7 days, with most of them concentrated between May and September, with notable activity in July and September. However, the most significant figure appeared when looking at the years one after the other, as the number of heat waves increased at a rate of approximately 0.1 additional waves each year. The year 2024 was the most prominent, as it recorded the largest number of heat waves, along with the highest maximum temperatures during the study period.
The difference between ordinary days and heat wave days is not simple. During days not classified as heat waves, maximum temperatures often ranged between 37 and 45 degrees Celsius, but during heat waves, they reach a range of approximately 46 to 49 degrees Celsius.
Throughout the study period, researchers observed an increase in the maximum summer temperature of approximately 0.028 degrees Celsius annually, and the number of heat waves also increased more clearly. This is where the question posed by the researchers begins: What makes Qatar enter these extreme heat situations in the first place?
Qatar is not alone
The researchers did not treat Qatar as a separate heat island. They used a statistical analysis called "experimental orthogonal function analysis" to find out the broader patterns of temperature change in the Arabian Peninsula, and the result revealed that heat waves in Qatar are part of a larger regional system.
One of the main patterns covered large parts of northern and central Arabia, explaining about 28.36% of the thermal variation. Another pattern appeared as a north-south difference, while a third pattern revealed more localized changes, in which the Qatar region and central Saudi Arabia stood out. That is, the heat wave in Qatar may be part of a thermal system that extends across large areas of the Arabian Peninsula.
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