In the past, discussions about cross-strait relations often included the statement, "Taiwan will not be independent, and the CCP will not use force." However, Taiwanese strategic scholar Chieh Chung believes that while this may have been true in the past, the situation has changed since Xi Jinping took office. The "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" has transformed from a slogan into a political goal that must be achieved, which includes the unification of Taiwan.
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Chieh Chung expressed this view at the "2026 Social Dialogue Forum" hosted by the Taiwan Democracy Lab on October 17. The forum was themed "Current Military Situation and Potential War Scenarios and Impacts in the Taiwan Strait." Also speaking at the same forum was Li Hou-chen, an independent scholar currently residing in Japan.
The "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" has become a goal.
When discussing the possibility of Chinese leaders launching a military war to unify Taiwan, Jie Zhong believes that the saying "Taiwan will not be independent, and the CCP will not use force" may have been true in the past. However, after Xi Jinping took office, he put forward the concept of "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." Although Xi Jinping was not the first to propose this concept, during his tenure, he gradually gave this phrase a new meaning, transforming it from a visionary slogan into a political goal.
Jie Zhong cited the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" dated January 2, 2019, as evidence, arguing that Xi Jinping has changed many policies toward Taiwan and made "the reunification of the motherland" an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Therefore, "from here on, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has become one of his political goals," and with the goal of achieving this by 2049, "achieving reunification before 2049 has become a national goal that the CCP must now achieve."
Chieh Chung believes that under such circumstances, the closer we get to 2049, and the more the political situation across the Taiwan Strait fails to meet the expectations of the Beijing leadership, the greater the risk of reunification by force is likely to increase.
A war against Taiwan stems more from geopolitical ambitions.
Li Houchen, who published his subsequent article, argued that the development of the regional situation in recent years has made the relationship between whether China launches a war against Taiwan and "Taiwan independence" or so-called "Taiwan provocations" less significant.
“Many people in Taiwan still say that Taiwan shouldn’t provoke the CCP, etc., but I think that’s a bit out of touch with the times, or a bit naive,” Li Houchen said. “Looking at East Asia, it’s not just Taiwan that has bad relations with China; China also has bad relations with Japan, the Philippines, and India. Does that mean Japan, the Philippines, and India are all provoking China? So the underlying reason is definitely China’s desire to change the geopolitical status quo.”
Li Houchen believes that Taiwan alone cannot change the will of the CCP leaders; ultimately, it is related to China's geopolitical ambitions and hopes for a breakthrough.
However, in assessing the possibility of war breaking out between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, Li Houchen believes that the Chinese government's current financial situation is extremely dire, which would greatly limit the Chinese government from launching a large-scale war.
Another factor limiting Chinese leaders from launching a large-scale war against Taiwan, according to Li Houchen, is China's competition and efforts to catch up with the US in the field of artificial intelligence (which the US officially calls "superintelligence"). China absolutely does not want to see the gap widen further with the US in the coming years. Two key dates stand out: First, China officially announced its goal of completing the production of its own High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) by 2028, a crucial component of chips. Second, China also stated its intention to develop its own EUV lithography machine by 2030.
Li Houchen believes that if China were to launch a large-scale war against Taiwan during the aforementioned periods, it would undoubtedly have a significant impact on the research and development and production of these crucial equipment and products. Maintenance, calibration, and product supply of existing equipment, such as services from Dutch lithography machine manufacturers and HBM products sold by South Korea to China, would likely be disrupted. This would have a severely detrimental effect on China's AI competitiveness. Li Houchen argues that the competitive landscape between the US and China in the field of AI significantly limits Chinese leaders' considerations regarding whether or not to launch a war against Taiwan.