NASA is anticipating the fall of its space observatory, the Neil Gehrels Swift, into Earth's atmosphere on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, after nearly 22 years of observing cosmic explosions and a failed attempt to save it by raising it to a higher orbit.
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According to the latest estimates from the US Space Force announced by NASA on November 2, the observatory is expected to enter the atmosphere around 11:30 AM Mecca time (8:30 AM GMT), with a margin of uncertainty of 11 hours before or after the time, making it currently impossible to accurately determine its landing location.
NASA announced on October 20 that the orbit of the observatory, which has a mass of about 1,500 kilograms, had dropped to an altitude of 275 kilometers, where air resistance became stronger than its ability to maintain stability, and it was put into a safe mode, before its operating team at Pennsylvania State University finished its scientific mission in preparation for its uncontrolled return.
Swift was launched on November 20, 2004, to study gamma-ray bursts, one of the most violent phenomena known in the universe, using three telescopes that detect gamma rays, X-rays, ultraviolet rays, and visible light.
Where will the remains of the telescope fall?
Although an approximate date of the fall has been determined, scientists cannot yet pinpoint its location because Swift's orbit passes over a range extending about 21 degrees north and south of the equator, encompassing vast areas of oceans, as well as populated areas in Africa , Latin America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.
Dean Sladen, an aerospace engineer and quality manager at the British company "Aco Components," explains that when the telescope drops to an altitude of 120 kilometers, it will enter the final stage of its fall within minutes, due to the intense friction with the atmosphere.
But some of the denser, heat-resistant parts may survive the burning, including the six steering wheels, mirrors, and metal and glass parts, with small fragments reaching the Earth's surface or the oceans.
Limited risk and growing space problem
NASA estimates the probability of a human injury from falling Swift debris at about 1 in 2,100, which is the overall probability of someone being injured on Earth, not the probability faced by every individual. While the agency describes the potential harm as unlikely, its estimate exceeds the general safety standard of 1 in 10,000.
Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, a company specializing in monitoring space objects, believes that most of the telescope burned up, but he does not rule out the possibility that some parts survived, stressing that the broader problem lies in the increasing number of abandoned spacecraft.
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