Climate Summit in Glasgow  What is expected of it? Does it achieve its goals?

This summit is likely to be one of the last conferences that could avoid Earth crossing the dramatic threshold of climate change.

From October 31 to November 12, the Scottish city of Glasgow will host the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26), on which climate experts pin many hopes to avoid a worst-case scenario. earth in the future.

In 1992, I signed an international treaty called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which set out the basic rules for global cooperation in the fight against climate change.

Since then, a series of conferences have been held to update these rules, most recently in 2015 when countries signed the Paris climate agreement. This agreement set a target of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The agreement stipulated a review of the commitments of the participating countries after 5 years, i.e. 2020, the year 2020, but the Corona pandemic that swept the world forced the postponement of the conference by one year to be held these days in Glasgow.

What is the Glasgow summit expected to achieve?

Meanwhile, the United Nations Climate Report issued last August warned that human activities have unambiguously warmed the planet, and that climate change is now widespread, rapid and intense with the increase in the average temperature of the planet. 1.1 degrees Celsius.

Most experts agree that warming will continue over the coming decades, and will in any case exceed 1.5°C by the middle of the century.

In light of these expectations, what is left for the new summit to discuss to save the planet's climate?

Workers at the Benban solar plant in Aswan Governorate, Egypt.  This project is Egypt's bet on the transition to the energy of the future.  The Benban solar power plant is considered one of the largest renewable energy projects in the world, using the most advanced technology in this field so far.

Researcher Shelley Inglis of the University of Dayton says - in an article she published on The Conversation - that a narrow window of opportunity is still possible if countries can reduce global emissions to "net zero". by 2050, leading to a re-warming of less than 1.5°C in the second half of the twenty-first century. This is what the COP26 participants will discuss.

The main objectives of COP26 are to compel countries to set ambitious emissions reduction targets through 2030 to reach net zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

In addition to increasing climate finance to help poor countries transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change to reach $100 billion annually, as well as phasing out coal for energy, reducing deforestation, protecting ecosystems, and encouraging investment in energy sources. renewable.

Between optimist and pessimist

Many insiders believe that the Glasgow Climate Summit will not reach its goal of getting commitments from countries strong enough to cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030.

This means that the world will not be on a smooth path to reach net zero emissions by 2050. This summit is likely to be one of the last conferences that could avoid the Earth crossing the dramatic threshold of climate change.

On the other hand, the organizers stress that maintaining the temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius is still possible. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is leading the US negotiations, hopes that a number of influential countries will create momentum for other countries to advance reduction goals by 2025.

What everyone agrees on is that the cost of failure would be very high; Studies have shown that a difference in average temperature rise between 1.5°C and 2°C could mean inundation of many coastal areas, death of coral reefs, more intense heat waves, and more frequent floods and wildfires.

Which means that the success of the summit will spare humanity many premature deaths, more mass migrations, great economic losses, vast areas of unlivable land, and violent conflict over resources and food, what the UN Secretary-General has called the "future hell".