Who will be the biggest loser if Russian gas supplies to Europe stop?

Russia has huge potential for gas production, a huge global and domestic market, and the ability to supply more than 300 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Moscow - The announcement by the US administration that it is communicating with gas-producing countries to provide supplies to Europe is a prelude to a new potential crisis with Russia, and signs of a new economic war against it, aimed at stopping the flow of Russian gas to Europe and depriving Moscow of one of the largest gas consuming markets in the world.

If this is done, the urgent question will arise about the economic damage that Russia will suffer, and the alternatives that could be available to it to compensate for the heavy losses in the event of a halt in gas supplies to Europe.

Struggle for supremacy

The issue of sanctions on Russian gas exports to Europe goes beyond the political dimension that is formally linked to the Ukrainian crisis. It is no secret that the United States, which dominates most of the world's energy exports, does not accept anyone competing with it for this throne, especially from its biggest geopolitical opponent.

This is not the first time that a dispute has erupted between the two countries over issues related to energy and its supply lines, as it suffices to recall the fierce competition in the nineties of the last century over the direction of oil and gas shipments in the Caspian Sea, at which the West made great efforts to prevent the supply of the Caspian Sea region. With oil and gas flowing through Russian territory, US officials publicly asserted that the United States would be satisfied with any pipeline option, as long as it bypassed Russia.

But with the beginning of the 21st century, the situation in international politics has changed, and at the same time, the US policy towards Russian oil and gas resources has also changed.

Russian experts believe that in the absence of an effective effect of ending Russia's long-term contracts with European countries, the United States went to the option of pouring oil on the fire of the Ukrainian crisis, one of the reasons for which, in their opinion, was the undermining of the authority of Gazprom.

Previously, Russia faced strong opposition in the implementation of the "South Stream" gas pipeline project, which was supposed to be laid in Bulgaria, but strong pressure from the European Union and the United States prevented its implementation, and as a result, it was abandoned with the gas pipeline project Turkey, and although Russia got additional opportunities for gas supplies, at the same time it has become dependent on a single consumer.

Economic lung

The gas industry constitutes the pillar of the Russian economy, the most important of which is its competitive advantages, and a main source of foreign exchange earnings in the state's general budget.

Russia has huge potential for gas production, a huge global and domestic market and the ability to supply more than 300 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Moreover, entire regions of the world depend on Russian gas supplies.

The share of Russian gas in European consumption is about 40%. In total, more than 200 billion cubic meters of gas are exported to Europe, with annual consumption of about 550 billion cubic meters.

Since the beginning of last year, Gazprom has increased gas supplies to Turkey by 188.5%, Germany 41.5%, Italy 15.9%, Romania 332.4%, Poland 13.8%, Serbia 121.5%, Finland 27.9%, Bulgaria 48.9%, and Greece 17.5%.

The Russian gas giant announced last year 2021 that it raised gas production by 18.1% (48.6 billion cubic meters) compared to the same period last year, to reach 316.5 billion cubic meters, and gas exports rose by 21.5% (by 21.8 billion cubic meters), Which made Russia approach the historical maximum.

According to the data of February 2022, Russian gas exports grew 2.1 times last year and amounted to 54.2 billion dollars, compared to 2020 when they amounted to 25.7 billion dollars.

Alternative markets

Economist Victor Lachon believes that leaving the European gas market undoubtedly means great losses for Russia, but on the other hand, it has huge alternative markets in terms of consumption volume, such as China, especially after the expansion of the "Power of Siberia" pipeline, which contributed to an increase in Russian gas exports to China. For more than 10 billion cubic meters, as well as alternative markets in India, the republics of Central Asia, the countries of Southeast Asia, and even in the future in Africa.

Lachon explains to Al Jazeera Net that Asia remains the most promising market for Russia, which has the largest gas reserves in the world, and intends to increase the volume of its exports to Asian countries, primarily to China.

Although Europe is Gazprom's main market, the European bureaucracy is preventing an increase in supplies from Russia, despite the gas shortage and record high fuel prices ahead of the winter season, according to the same spokesman.

Tough choices

But the economist Lachon stresses that the biggest loss in theory is the loss of the energy weapon as a means to protect national interests, and to resist pressures against the unfriendly policies of the European Union countries.

In his opinion, the American talk about finding alternative sources of Russian gas to Europe, will practically mean forcing it to buy more expensive gas with less favorable terms, as costs remain the main enemy of the American dream of supplying natural gas to Europe, because LNG supplies from the United States are more The cost of gas exports via pipelines from Russia.

Moreover, Germany will not buy American LNG, because it does not have the infrastructure to do so, and building new plants cannot be profitable, not to mention Berlin's announcement that it already plans to decarbonize completely by 2050.

The economist continues that the only way out for European countries to replace the import of Russian gas is heating with coal instead of gas, a large part of which arrives from Russia itself, but at the same time, it contradicts the prevailing environmental standards on the continent.

European alternative

The economist Lachon points out that within Europe itself, Norway is the only major supplier of gas, but it is not a member of the European Union, and all the gas produced in the North Sea, which amounts to about 100 billion cubic meters, is sold by the state to the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Meanwhile, Norway cannot seriously increase production due to its limited resource base, as well as estimates by many experts that Norwegian gas production will decline from 2024.

Other countries that have an adequate resource base and are not bound by gas export commitments that could replace Russian supplies to Europe are either under sanctions, do not have the transportation infrastructure and deliveries to Europe, or do not want to strain relations with Moscow.

The Russian expert recalls the warnings of several international energy companies to the US State Department, of the almost complete absence of gas alternatives provided by Russia in the European market.

Moreover, Lachon stresses that the further deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States and the threat to search for alternatives to Russian gas will not eliminate the fact that Europe is objectively dependent on oil and gas supplies from Russia, and therefore, will not be able, not only to abandon Russia as an energy source, but even Participation in imposing serious sanctions on Moscow.

Lviv a Ukrainian city nominated as a candidate for the capital Kiev

A general view shows buildings in central Lviv

With the recent escalation of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, the name of the city of Lviv (LVIV) in western Ukraine, on the border with Poland, was frequently mentioned.

For its part, the United States announced that it had decided to move its embassy in Ukraine from the capital, Kiev, to the city of Lviv, following the "acceleration of the Russian military buildup" on the country's borders.

Before that, Washington withdrew all American employees from the OSCE mission in Donetsk, and moved them to temporary offices in Lviv. Australia and Canada also evacuated their embassies in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and moved the employees to Lviv.

A few days ago, the Ukrainian authorities announced the dismantling of two robot farms in the city of Lviv, with a total capacity of 18,000 fake accounts, according to a report on the “Vice” website, and confirmed that technical experts from Russia were supervising those farms.

Prince Lev

King Danilo named the founder of the city of Lviv after his son, Prince Lev Danilovich.

It is called by several names, such as Lviv, Loyo or Lvov, and its capital is Oblast.

In antiquity, different names were used for the city: "Limburg, Limburg, Limburg, Lawhurd, Littbad, Litbon, Leona, Civitas, Leontaples, Lewisburg, Limburg, Limburg".

Population: 721,510 people (estimates for the year 2021), as 88% are Ukrainians, 9% are Russians, 1% are Poles, and the rest are minorities.

The city is located at an altitude of 296 meters in an area of ​​182 square kilometers.

Lviv has a humid continental climate, with cold winters and warm summers.

The origin of the city dates back to the year 1200 in the period of the Ukrainian-Russian Empire.

- 1256: The city of Lviv was founded by Prince Danilo, and it witnessed a great commercial prosperity through the trade route from Vienna to Kiev.

- Throughout the ages, the city has been a scene of conflict between the forces that tried to occupy the region.

- 1349: It was occupied by the Poles (Poles) and annexed to the Polish and Polo-Lithuanian kingdoms.

1672: The city of Lviv fell under the control of the Turks.

1704: Lviv falls under the control of the Swedes.

1772: Lviv becomes the capital of Galicia (currently one of the autonomous regions of Spain).

1772: The city is annexed to the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

- After the fall of the empire during the First World War, Lviv became the capital of what is known as the Western Ukrainian People's Republic, where the Poles soon occupied it again to be included in the Second Republic of Poland.

1848: Lviv becomes the main center of the Ukrainian national movement.

1919: Lviv fell under the control of the Poles, and the Soviet-Polish treaty was signed confirming the city's ownership of Poland.

1939: In World War II, the city was annexed to the Soviet Union within the Ukrainian part for two years.

1941: It was occupied by the Germans.

1944: Returned to the Soviets again.

During World War II, the German forces occupied the city of Lviv and exterminated most of the Jews there.

By the early 1990s, the number of Jews in the city had reached approximately 17,000.

1945: Poland formally ceded the city to the Soviet Union.

1991: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the city became part of the current state of Ukraine.

"Black City"

Throughout history, Lviv has been called by many names and expressions, such as “the city of lions”, “the city of sleeping lions”, “the royal city”, “the pearl of the crown of Europe”, “the city museum”, “the capital of Galicia”, and “Paris” Little Vienna, Little Vienna, Ukrainian Piedmont and Banderstadt.

The official emblem and flag of Lviv is the old coat of arms.

Before World War II, the emblem of Lviv consisted of an image of 5 colored towers in Lviv, and the motto "Lviv is open to the world" beneath it.

The modern coat of arms of the city of Lviv is a shield bearing the coat of arms of the city crowned with a silver city crown with 3 edges held by a lion and an ancient warrior.

The flag of Lviv is a blue square banner with the city's emblem and yellow and blue triangles at the edges.

Cultural center

The city of Lviv is a major center for publication and culture, especially for Ukrainian culture, which clearly flourished in the tsarist eras, and this was evident when a university was established as one of the institutions of higher education and scientific research in the city and was named after the Ukrainian poet and journalist Ivan Franko during the period of the Soviet regime.

The city includes public and private universities, the most important of which is Lviv University.

It is famous for the National Orchestra and the National Opera and Ballet Theatre.

It is an important cultural and economic center for the country and for Eastern Europe.

The historic city center is under the protection of UNESCO and has been the cultural capital of Ukraine since 2009.

Currently, the city has a very good economy, and is the most important commercial center in western Ukraine.

Unemployment rates in the city of Lviv are very low and reach less than 1%.

In Lviv there are about 218 industrial companies, more than 40 commercial banks and about 80 insurance companies, and it has many leading companies in information technology, with more than 15 thousand employees in this sector.

It witnesses a diversity of religions, with Catholics making up more than half of its population, and Jews about 2%.

It is one of the few European cities where there is a cemetery dedicated to the burial of Muslims according to Islam.

The Jesuit Garden is one of the most famous destinations in the city, as it was the first garden in Ukraine.

1784: The world's first balloon was launched into the sky from Lviv.

The city witnessed the construction of the first hotel in Ukraine, as well as the first railway, the first university and the first public theater.

Since tourism is one of the most important sectors in the city, it witnesses annually more than 100 annual festivals.

terrible disaster

- July 27, 2002: Sknilev Airport in Lviv, western Ukraine, witnessed a terrible disaster, when a Sukhoi-27 warplane crashed into a large crowd of spectators who were watching an air show of the Ukrainian Air Force.

The accident killed 83 people - including 19 children - and injured 199 others, and the two pilots managed to eject with a parachute and were taken to hospital.

President Leonid Kuchma dismissed the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, General Viktor Strelnikov, and the commander of the 14th air unit, Sergey Onishchenko, and also took a decision in principle to ban air shows in Ukraine.

The Public Prosecution decided to remand General Strelnikov and 3 other officials in the Air Force in pretrial detention, pending investigation into the accident.

Defense Minister Vladimir Shkidchenko submitted his resignation to the president following the disaster.

September 15, 2014: Following the outbreak of battles between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, forces from 15 NATO member states, including the United States, conducted the Trident Rapid 14 military maneuvers near Lviv city.

- December 24, 2021: The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that its consulate in the city of Lviv was attacked by unknown persons.

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Chargé d'Affairs of the Ukrainian Embassy, ​​Vassily Pokotilo, to protest the attack on the consulate.

To protest wages, Paris metro workers go on strike that impedes the movement of millions

After refusing to raise their wages, Paris metro workers went on an open-ended strike that disrupted the movement of trains and disrupted the movement of millions of people in the French capital.

A major strike by workers on Friday, due to the non-approval of raising their wages, paralyzed the movement of trains on most of the lines of the metro network of the French capital, Paris.

And the company "RATP" for public transport in the French capital stated on its website that the movement is suspended on the level of six lines, down from eight announced earlier today, Friday, and the company confirmed that the rest of the lines are partially operating.

She added that the strike did not affect only two lines, which are in fact operating autonomously without human leadership on board the trains.

For his part, French Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Guibari wrote on his Twitter page: "We call on companies to resort to as much office work as possible from home."

Without them, RATP employees made clear that the strike, which coincides today with the entry of labor unions and management into annual wage talks, is the result of the insufficient increases offered by the state-owned company.

The company had previously announced its willingness to raise wages by 2.7% in 2022, an increase that labor unions described as "provocative."