The Russian-Ukrainian war stalemate Wang Yi's surprise visit to India and the "circle of friends"?

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, Reuters quoted sources as saying on Wednesday that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India in the coming days. The unexpected visit also comes two years after the deadly clashes erupted on the Sino-Indian border, and direct contact between top Chinese officials and top Indian officials. Some scholars believe that China intends to win over India when it is isolated internationally; while India also has border issues, armament needs and traditional strategic considerations of "non-alignment".

Reuters quoted an Indian official on the 23rd as confirming that Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India on the 25th. It was the visit of the highest-ranking Chinese official following the deadly clashes on the Sino-Indian border in 2020.

Reuters quoted sources as saying that during Wang Yi’s visit to India, he plans to meet with Indian National Security Adviser Shri Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, focusing on discussions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Sino-Indian border in the Himalayas conflict.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on the 23rd that he currently has no information to provide. India's foreign ministry also declined to comment on rumors of Wang Yi's visit to India.

Currently, Wang Yi is attending the OIC meeting in Pakistan, and was originally expected to visit Nepal on the 25th as part of his South Asia tour.

"Honestly, China's proposal (Foreign Minister Wang Yi) to visit India surprised many in New Delhi, a request that India did not expect." International political analyst in New Delhi, "Flying Blind: India Seeks Global Leadership" Mohamed Zeeshan, author of Flying Blind: India's Quest for Global Leadership, told this station, "Given the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, (Wang Yi's visit) gives China the opportunity to play a role in the relationship between India and the West. to sow discord."

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India has maintained a similar caliber with China. Not only has it refused to condemn Russia, but also abstained from voting in the UN Security Council on whether to condemn Russia's aggression. Russia, on the other hand, regards both China and India as friendly countries, and has established diplomatic and economic ties with India since the Cold War.

Jeff Smith, a scholar at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank that studies South Asia, told this station that India does not want to alienate Russia, its main supplier of defense armaments: "India relies on Russia's military industry for its defense needs; Russia also Provide India with military platforms that other countries cannot, including nuclear submarines, and jointly develop advanced cruise missiles with India.”

Moreover, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European countries have shunned the Russian market, India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, has Instead, it increased purchases of Russian oil. Data show that in March this year, India’s oil imports from Russia were nearly four times the monthly average of last year.

"India does not want to put all its eggs in the West's basket under any circumstances. So, in order to maintain a non-aligned existence in order to find space between East and West, India sees Russia as important to help India achieve this goal. Mohamed Zeeshan (Mohamed Zeeshan) analyzed that in this context, if China intends to win over India, or even make compromises on border issues, “then I think other differences between China and India will fade out of the background. "

How does the Quartet Security Dialogue go?

Michael Sobolik, a researcher on Indo-Pacific affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council who has been involved in China-related legislative affairs in the US Congress for a long time, believes that Wang Yi's visit to India is a gamble by China. He told this station that when countries around the world are sanctioning Russia for the economic invasion of Ukraine, Wang Yi is likely to propose to the Indian side that India should continue to trade with Russia in rubles.

“This will create some challenges for the US: the US has warned China that it will face sanctions and retaliation if it helps Moscow. But if India is doing this as well... For example, will the US be accused of India buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system? , and impose sanctions on India?" Subrick said that Chinese diplomats suddenly found "a lot of leverage" in Sino-Indian relations in this international political game.

U.S. President Joe Biden on the 21st named India "shaky" in its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The entire NATO and Pacific region has formed a united front (on the Russian issue)," Biden said. "Quartet security dialogue, with the exception of India being a bit unreliable in some places, Japan has been extremely strong in dealing with Putin's aggression, So is Australia."

Biden's remarks have many commentators worried about the prospect of a U.S.-led quadrilateral security dialogue. However, Jeff Smith believes that the Biden administration has shown some flexibility in its approach to India. For example, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department once stated that the U.S. clearly understands that “India’s relationship with Russia is different from that between the U.S. and Russia.” This week, the U.S. State Department also reiterated that India is an important partner of the U.S. in realizing its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. at the heart of the Quartet’s security dialogue.

“The best thing the U.S. government can do when it comes to Russia-India relations is to take a step back. New Delhi and Moscow have actually been parting ways spontaneously over the past few years.” The war will only exacerbate the rift between the two countries. Many Indian officials and analysts in the past did not believe Putin would invade Ukraine, and they are also surprised by the poor performance of the Russian military and the harsh sanctions of Western solidarity.