Awaiting her funeral Bennett's government begins its countdown : Adnan Abu Amer

Within less than a year of its formation, the Israeli government lost its parliamentary majority, and became in a state of real paralysis, after the resignation of the head of the coalition, which gave way to speculation of its collapse.

Talks of a fifth early election in less than 3 years began, amid a clear jump from opposition leader Netanyahu to return to the political arena.

These lines analyze the causes of the erupting crisis, its factors and expected results, and whether Netanyahu is about to return to the political stage, even though we are facing perhaps the strangest government coalition that Israel has witnessed during the past years and decades, whether in its contradictory components, or the ambiguity surrounding its near future, and anticipating the developments of the coming days that It seems full of internal political events, if the confrontations taking place in Al-Aqsa Mosque were to calm down, and the state of partisan polarization would return to its climax, after the Knesset's recess ended in May.

Coalition Contradictions

The resignation of Idit Silman, head of the government coalition, from the Yamina party led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, constituted the tip of the iceberg in the internal disputes, as it came in protest against what she considered to be a violation of Jewish law committed by Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz, leader of the left-wing Meretz party, when he allowed the entry of foods containing Yeast to hospitals.

The official written resignation expressed great ashes under the embers, pointing to many internal contradictions about the religious, partisan and economic agendas that concern the Israeli situation, and externally related to the future of the relationship with the Palestinians, settlements, the Iranian nuclear agreement and the Ukrainian war, albeit from a hidden party.

From the first moment of the announcement of the formation of the government, it was clear that the concern of its members, from the right and the left, is to keep Netanyahu from the fore, as he is a constant source of concern, and as long as he remains in power, he will destroy their aspirations to run the political arena. About a deal with the Public Prosecution Office to exempt him from trial on the condition that he does not return to political life, until contradictions emerged that were “buried” for an indefinite period.

Partners' ambitions

From the beginning, the inconsistent formation in the coalition bore the signs of its downfall, as the right-wing party broke away from the Likud party and the Zionist forces. What prompted Bennett and his companions to form their party, which did not exceed six members, is the personal ambitions to enter the political arena, given that staying in the Likud pocket means its transition to the opposition, inconsistent with its ambitions to lead the right-wing movement.

Despite this, the right-wing ideological convictions of Yamina members remained linked to their Likudist roots, despite their transition to power, but Bennett was forced to take steps contrary to the Zionist right’s “ABC,” such as responding to American pressure to freeze settlements, even temporarily, or a “slip of the tongue.” Issued by him using the term West Bank instead of “Judea and Samaria” during his meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken, and allowing his ministers to meet with the Palestinians, albeit economic and security, without a political horizon. Calculation of Basic Zionism Principles.

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As for the “There is a Future” party, led by Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a secular journalist, it has the second largest number of Knesset seats after the Likud, with 17 deputies, but it gave up heading the government in favor of Bennett, who has six seats, a precedent that did not occur in the history of Israel However, his desire to overthrow Netanyahu at any cost forced him to swallow the "scythe", forcing him, which prompted the right-wing circles, in the government and the opposition, to say, a statement, not a hint, that Lapid is the actual head of the government and not Bennett, through the policy of "leading from behind." .

Lapid does not seem happy with the emerging government crisis, because he has a personal dream of being the next prime minister through the rotation agreement with Bennett, which is due in November 2023, which makes him adopt some positions and policies that are incompatible with his convictions, in a desire not to break up the coalition contract.

A New Hope party headed by Gideon Sa’ar, one of the traditional Likud poles, defected from it only due to a personal dispute with Netanyahu, but it has a network of close relations with his former comrades, and expressed a willingness to return to the ranks of his old house on the condition that the latter leave, which makes his stay in the government a source of great doubts if his fears increase from Its instability, and the search for an effective position in a future government that the Likud might form, if the current government is overthrown.

Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, is a right-wing Russian Jew and fascist. His positions are not very different from Yamina, New Hope and Likud, but his personal estrangement with Netanyahu forced him to join a government that brings together Arab Knesset members, which he often described as the “fifth column,” which portends The possibility of repositioning him in the government in the event that the balance of power in it changes, or early elections are called.

The Blue and White party headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz is closer to Lapid than Bennett and Lieberman, and has a personal aspiration to repeat the model of the “political general” Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated by the right. Rotation, a dream he longed to achieve in vain!

The rest of the government formation from the left with its two Labor parties headed by Merav Michaeli and Meretz led by Nitzan Horowitz, as well as the Arab List led by Mansour Abbas, are very close to general political positions, including dealing with the 48 Palestinians, and the separation of religion from the state, although the latter - that is, the Arab List - She made a spin by temporarily freezing her membership in the government in protest against the attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque, and although it is a formality due to the Knesset’s approval, the internal pressures on Abbas may lose him the margin of maneuvering with Bennett, the more the Israeli oppression of the Palestinians increases, and consequently it may find itself outside the government, which means its downfall .

Narrow Options

It is true that the government was able to stay on the brink of the abyss for nearly a year, by retaining only one seat, more than fifty percent, and accomplished a number of laws and procedures with great difficulty, but the resignation of "Selman", which lost the parliamentary majority, makes it close to announcing its end. In conjunction with the possibility of the withdrawal of the Arab List, and the defection of more coalition members, at the unmistakable instigation of the Likud and its leader Netanyahu, who is waiting for the appropriate opportunity to return to the forefront of events.

Bennett realizes more than anyone else that the margin for maneuver is narrowing in front of him, and he no longer has many options, in light of the most likely scenario of the collapse of the government, if the above-mentioned estimates are realized, especially that the most dangerous maturity of approving the state’s general budget, which represents an occasion for the collapse of every contract, is approaching. A stable government coalition, so what is the matter with us talking about a fragile, crumbling government that is close to collapse?

At the same time, Israeli calls for early elections have begun, which will be the fifth in three years, which will move the Israeli scene into a state of fluctuation, fluctuation and instability. Elections are taking place at this time, and Bennett is expected to leave the political arena completely.

The fact that the Israeli government remains in a state of real paralysis, and its approach to the hypothesis of a resounding fall, may push its president to a scenario that previous governments have been resorting to, which is the application of the rule of “crisis management by creating a crisis”, by fabricating a confrontation with the Palestinians, or implementing a military operation in The outside is with any of the forces hostile to Israel, so that the attention of Israeli public opinion is distracted from the emerging crisis on the one hand, and on the other hand, a call is made to form a national unity government, thus gaining more time.

(AdnanAbuAmer74,Writer and Head of the Political Science Department at Umma University in Gaza.)