U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a National Congressional Committee (DNC) event in Howard, Washington, DC, U.S., October 18, 2022.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that Beijing is determined to speed up the reunification timetable, and U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday also pointed out that the possibility of the CCP attacking Taiwan this year is not ruled out. Japanese media disclosed that the Biden administration intends to promote the joint production of weapons between Taiwan and the United States, which was confirmed by the US-Taiwan Chamber of Commerce. The U.S. State Department said it would review all options to expedite the transfer of arms to Taiwan. Some military experts told Radio Free Asia that the joint production of weapons by Taiwan and the United States involves the risk of military secrets being leaked and the interests of arms dealers. There are many aspects to be discussed.
Former Defense Minister of Taiwan: Taiwan has many high-performance weapons, and it is not easy for Beijing to eat Taiwan
US Secretary of State Blinken pointed out at Stanford University on the 17th that China under Xi Jinping is "greatly accelerating" its plan to annex Taiwan. Once Taiwan is captured by Beijing, the global economy will be destroyed. The "South China Morning Post" reported that US Navy Chief Gilday warned at the Atlantic Council on the 19th that the Chinese Communist Party will launch an attack on Taiwan as soon as this year, and the US Navy must be in a state of combat readiness at any time. He believes that Xi Jinping reiterated at the 20th National Congress that "the Beijing authorities do not rule out the use of force to control Taiwan", which is what China has done.
"Nikkei Asia" quoted three sources as saying on the 19th that the Joe Biden administration is considering the plan of the United States and Taiwan to jointly produce weapons, accelerate production capacity and speed up arms sales to Taiwan, in order to strengthen the response to China deterrence. The model may be that U.S. defense companies provide technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan, or use Taiwan-made components to manufacture weapons in the United States.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense spokesman Sun Lifang replied to Radio Free Asia on the 20th that he only said, "There is no comment at this time."
According to a comprehensive report, Han Rubo, president of the US-Taiwan Chamber of Commerce, confirmed: "This is at the beginning of the process." Vedant Patel, the chief deputy spokesman of the US State Department, did not confirm or deny, but said he had read the report. He also said that the United States is reviewing all options on the table to ensure that it can hand over armaments to Taiwan as soon as possible in a manner consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act.
Taiwan Central News Agency reported that "National Defense News" reported at the end of August that there are still 10 batches of US government-approved arms sales to Taiwan that have not yet been delivered.
Accelerate production capacity and arms delivery to Taiwan
According to Nikkei Asia reports, it generally takes several years to 10 years from the approval of the US government for arms sales to the completion of delivery. The U.S. military believes that China may master the ability to seize Taiwan by 2027, and Taiwan's time to strengthen its defense capabilities is limited.
Guo Chonglun, a senior Taiwanese media person, pointed out in an interview with Radio Free Asia that since this year, more and more people have discovered in war games that if mainland China wants to invade Taiwan, the so-called "asymmetric weapons", including ground-to-ship missiles, will be used in the previous round. , two days will be exhausted.
Guo Chonglun mentioned that the United States has stockpiles of weapons in Guam and Okinawa bases. A few days ago, there were media reports that the United States hopes to set up an arsenal in Taiwan. In response to the consumption of weapons, it is hoped that the time of Taiwan's resistance will be prolonged, waiting for the United States to help, and even simply let Taiwan's arms factories. Have the ability to produce and reserve in-house. In particular, it is necessary to produce four kinds of weapons that the United States emphasizes that Taiwan must develop asymmetric combat power, such as needle-piercing missile air defense systems, MK-48 torpedoes, high-mobility rocket launchers, and anti-ship missiles.
US arms dealer backlash and secret leakage risks to be overcome
Guo Chonglun believes that the Nikkei report is not unexpected, and can be regarded as a part of the United States' desire for Taiwan to improve its defense capabilities, but there are political factors that must be considered. "The U.S. arms dealers didn't do this in the past, worried about leaks. If the situation reverses in the future, will the U.S. have secret technology leaked to the mainland via Taiwan? This is what the U.S. cares about."
Guo Chonglun also said that such cooperation involves the interests of arms dealers: "If it is produced in Taiwan, his interests will not be so high, unlike the past. Now the US Department of Defense considers the general situation and can immediately fill the arms equipment in Taiwan. The United States is Balance all factors."
Guo Chonglun analyzed that the consumption of weapons in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is very large. For example, the multi-tube rocket system of Haima, Ukraine has always said that it has been exhausted. With the current number of Taiwanese, it may be exhausted in a day when the war breaks out. The US should be reviewing arms shipments to Ukraine. The consumption of the war is unexpected. At the end, the US reserves of weapons have been used up, and a new production line must be opened as soon as possible.
However, according to Guo Chonglun's judgment, the biggest difficulty in Taiwan-US cooperation in the production of weapons is that the US government must overcome the arms industry's opposition to moving production lines to Taiwan, thinning profits, and leakage of production technology. Taiwan hopes that armaments can take root, but the United States and Taiwan have different views on the weapons and equipment Taiwan needs.
Russian-Ukrainian war experience weapon consumption is fast
Su Ziyun, director of Taiwan's National Defense Security Research Institute, also mentioned in an interview with Radio Free Asia that the outbreak of the Ukrainian war has put pressure on the United States to insufficient logistical supplies and equipment production. In the past two years, the epidemic has affected many production lines in the United States, and the production speed of F-35 and F-16 fighter jets has been delayed. "The United States has found other reliable international partners to jointly produce weapons and equipment, which has become a good solution that can quickly meet the needs of the US military."
Su Ziyun mentioned that the American Heritage Foundation recently released a report stating that the US Air Force is short of spare parts, some of which will take 36 months or three years, and that one-third of the Navy's ships are lined up in various shipyards for maintenance.
Some Taiwanese manufacturers are already in the U.S. defense supply chain
Su Ziyun said: "Taiwan has similar cooperation experience with the United States in the past, including fighter aircraft production, authorized ship production, and assisting Taiwan's military equipment authorization. Many private manufacturers in Taiwan are already in the U.S. defense supply chain. In this context, it is entirely possible for the United States and Taiwan to assist in the production of armaments after further mutual trust is achieved."
Su Ziyun believes that Taiwan needs to strengthen its existing national defense, increase technology protection, and counter commercial espionage in security management. It is an area where the management technology of production weapons may be strengthened in the future.
The American Patriot Missile Technology Corps has been stationed in Taiwan for a long time
Taiwan's "Liberty Times" reported that the main force of Taiwan's anti-aircraft missiles, the US-made Patriot III missile, has been negotiated by both Taiwan and the United States. The three-missile system worked smoothly.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense stated that the case is a "operational maintenance" budget, which mainly involves hiring technical representatives to provide support services to properly maintain the Patriot system equipment.