The “disasters” coming to France from the Sahel countries are successive and do not come singly. After Mali and France’s exit from it with great failure, French influence in Burkina Faso, which witnessed two military coups, has become more threatened than ever.
The sands of the desert move under the feet of the French forces in the Sahel region, demonstrations in Burkina Faso against France and its military presence in the country, diplomatic tension and a one-month deadline given by the military government in Ouagadougou to Paris to withdraw its forces from the country and the Elysee responds.
The “disasters” coming to France from the Sahel countries are successive and do not come singly. After Mali and France’s exit from it with great failure, French influence in Burkina Faso, which witnessed two military coups, has become more threatened than ever.
Almost a year after French President Emmanuel Macron announced the decision to withdraw from Mali, and after weeks of total withdrawal and the end of the Barkhane military operation that began in the summer of 2014 to combat “terrorism” in the Sahel region, France found itself forced this time to withdraw from the state of Burkina Faso. which gave it one month to withdraw 400 French special forces from the country. These developments come in the context of growing anti-French sentiment in the Sahel countries.
It is noteworthy that in 2014, the "Barkhane" military operation began with the aim of "combating insurgency and terrorism in the African Sahel region," and it consists of about 5,500 soldiers. The operation was formed with five countries, former French colonies, that extend in the Sahel region of Africa: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. It succeeded Operation Serval, which was launched by former President François Hollande and achieved successes in the region. In the Sahel, we also find the "Saber mission" command center near Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso. Since 2009, between 350 and 400 French Special Forces soldiers have been deployed.
Experts believe that France has not achieved any results in the region and its presence has become increasingly undesirable, especially since the number of terrorist attacks has increased steadily, as well as the number of civilians joining armed groups, and they confirm that as a result France has lost its prestige as a military force that can solve the problem of terrorism She must leave if she fails to do so.
The “dramatic” setbacks of France in the Sahel did not stop with the military withdrawal from Mali and the severing of diplomatic relations by expelling its ambassador from Bamako. New reports confirm the collapse of the influence of the former colonial power in the Sahel and the growing feelings of hostility towards it.
Data from international organizations indicate a steady increase in the number of victims of armed operations in the Sahel region, and the number of civilian deaths was limited to hundreds between 2012 and 2017, but the matter suddenly accelerated after that, and the non-governmental organization Aclide said that the number of civilian deaths annually exceeded the threshold of a thousand Since 2018. and exceeding two thousand in 2021. In total, ACLID has counted the deaths of 11,276 civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso since the outbreak of the conflict in 2012 until June 2022.
French political researcher Remy Carayol, author of the book "The Mirage of the Coast", considered, in an interview with the French newspaper " L'OBS ", that Macron confirmed after his election in 2017 that achieving victory is impossible in Mali, and therefore he is only asking for qualitative results in order to get out. From the region, which prompted the French army to ally itself with local armed organizations working to fight "jihadist organizations", which caused the commission of many crimes documented by the United Nations, which further complicated the situation for France.
The writer, Carayol, acknowledged that the relationship between France's military operations in the Sahel and colonial thought is close, as the French military establishment based its perception of the operations on perpetuating the French presence in the region by creating economic and social projects that endear people to France and the French, and ensure the protection of French interests. France “reaped nothing but the opposite results and paid the price for its desire to maintain a very strong political and military presence in its former domain,” according to Jean-Hervé Jezekiel , Sahel Project Director at the International Crisis Group.
Siddig Aba, a French writer and journalist specializing in African affairs, believes that the Sahel region is “Afghanistan” for France, as the declared goals were not achieved from the beginning, and he points to the failure of the Barkhane military operation after the relative success of the Serval operation, where the threat spread The terrorist was mainly exported from Mali to Burkina Faso and Niger. The Gulf states of Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Togo are also threatened and violence against civilians is escalating.
The writer goes further than failure and refers to the counterproductive results of the French presence in the Sahel and Mali in particular, and said in an interview with the French newspaper “Le Point ” that the recent appearance of “Iyad Ag Ghali”, the leader of Al-Qaeda, the Mali branch, through a clip A photographer whose aim is to prove that the organization moves easily in the region and that it plays the role of protector of the civilian population, especially the Tuareg, and their lands.
Recently, Iyad Ag Ghali, the leader of al-Qaeda's Mali branch, appeared in the Menaka border region with Niger, with a number of Tuareg notables who live in the Sahara desert and pledge allegiance to him. This is the first time he has appeared since October 2020. The headquarters of the Franco-Czech "Takopa" group, as well as the Swedish rapid reaction force on helicopters, were located in this area. This appearance was considered by the writer “Siddik Abba” as part of the acceleration of the ongoing settlement process within the terrorist groups present in the Sahel. This means that the coastal residents themselves are taking the lead.
France is in great weakness
Political analyst Ghazi Moalla said in an interview with “TRT Arabi” that “France is now in a very great weakness and is losing very important areas of influence in Africa, especially in the Sahel region, as Mali was the first point that France lost.”
Moalla explained, “This is due to many reasons, the most important of which is the management of the crisis in Mali, which was very bad, in addition to the intervention of Wagner.” The Russians had a great influence in getting the French out of the region. We also do not forget even France's allies, such as NATO, as they did not help France much to survive, as if they hastened its departure. In addition to the colonial legacy and France's failure to review some methods of work and dealing with Africans.
Regarding whether Russia has ambitions to replace the French presence in the Sahel region, Mualla considered that “Russia does not have the ingredients to be the alternative to France in the region, but it will have influence in some areas and prove its ability to do so if it ally with other and greater powers.” . The evidence of that is the Russian-Chinese alliance in Central Africa, which managed to expel France from this country once and for all and take its place.”
Ghazi Mualla ruled out that this experience (Central Africa) would be repeated in another country, saying: “This is difficult because conditions in Russia are difficult because of the war in Ukraine, and the United States of America will not allow it to penetrate as it wishes in the region.”
The spokesman concluded by saying that “Operation Barkhane failed because the situation now in Mali is not as it was decided at the beginning of the operation, when France was coordinating with Algeria to combat terrorism. The length of time did not produce the desired results 100 percent.
Academic political affairs researcher Ayman Al-Boghanemi said, “The French situation in Africa in general is difficult. First, there is a historical burden represented in the burden of the bad reputation borne by the African peoples for the presence of France and its influence in decision-making in them. These peoples consider that France is responsible for the failure of the regimes that it ruled in Mali, Burkina Faso, or other countries, meaning that there is a heavy burden.
In his interview with TRT Arabi, Boughanemi added, “There is, in the medium term, a kind of failure in the so-called fight against terrorism. The presence of France under the slogan of combating terrorism for long periods makes it easy to imagine that these foreign forces are fabricated forces, in fact, mistakes multiply, results are absent, and even terrorism escalates by virtue of the reaction to this foreign presence.”
He continued: “So, in the long term, there is the historical burden, and in the medium term, there is the failure in the issue of combating terrorism. As for the short term, there is the temptation to replace the French presence with the Russian presence, in the sense that Russia has become an arm of Wagner that presents itself to the ruling political regimes in these countries.” However, it has the power to secure these regimes and to provide them with the services in which they used to resort to the former French colonizer. This temptation offered by Russia’s arm (Wagner) tempts many in these countries, especially those that have witnessed military coups.”
Al-Boghanemi pointed out that "Wagner's forces are the most understanding of the transgressions of these regimes and the least accountability for them, and they are not under pressure or democratic accountability in their country, meaning that they enjoy a field of freedom, which is what tempts the regimes in these countries to exploit them when they need to suppress or transcend power." '.
And he added, “France is losing a lot of its influence on the countries of this region, and there is great competition with Russia and China, but also the United States of America, which considers that France is no longer trustworthy in these regions.” There is a possibility that competition between the great powers may increase and the outcome will gradually be determined by the future of Russia.”
Al-Boghanemi went on to say that “if Russia is able to establish its footing in these countries, it will have the upper hand. But the success of this is linked to its war against Ukraine, which is not proceeding as the leaders in Moscow desire, so that most of Wagner's energy is focused on Ukraine. In the sense that any negative results of the war in Ukraine in the medium term may weaken the Russian presence in Africa. These are unpredictable issues. But indeed, the French presence in Africa and its influence in decision-making in Africa is clearly declining.”
For his part, the researcher in international relations, Bashir Al-Juweni, indicated, in his interview with “TRT Arabi”, that “France’s relationship with the Sahel region is an old issue and is not linked to the changes that occurred after 2011. However, as a result of these changes, a French desire to deal with the old method emerged ( colonialism) itself, without learning from previous experiences, which negatively affected the vision of the African peoples in many countries, especially in the Sahel region, towards France.”
Al-Juwayni considered, “The Barkhane military operation has failed greatly compared to the funds allocated for it, and it caused an internal debate in France between Macron and his opponents, and it also caused the destruction of an important part of the gains that France made in the Sahel region before this operation, especially those related to the vision of the peoples of these countries.” to the French presence,” pointing out that “this vision has become in the direction of taking a sharp and anti-France stance, which has become a demand for the need to leave the peoples of the region alone. This was manifested on more than one occasion and station, which makes its position threatened. I started to lose it.”
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