Who will benefit from the military leader's international visit? : Myanmar

Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the former Secretary General of the United Nations and the vice president of The Elders, arrived in Myanmar on April 23 and met with the coup leader. The trip surprised everyone.

While there are many questions about why Mr. Ban Ki-moon came to Burma, he came to urge an immediate end to the violence and to help the people of Burma as much as he can, The Elders group announced on April 25.

“It is clear that the immediate benefit goes to the War Council. Because they will say it from a propaganda point of view."

On April 21, the Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand Foreign Minister Mr. The Military Council announced that they had a meeting with the Chairman of the Military Council, Don Pramudwinai, in Nay Pyi Taw. illegal weapons during the meeting; The news reported that they discussed how to eradicate drug and human trafficking.

From April 16 to 19, it was reported that Peng Xiubin, Director General of the International Relations Department of the Communist Party of China, met former dictator U Than Shwe and former president U Thein Sein. Neither the Chinese Communist Party nor the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar, nor the Military Council, released any information about the meeting.

The arrival of important international leaders to Myanmar during this week is beneficial for Myanmar and its people. International experts who study Myanmar issues have analyzed and commented on what could be behind these.

Christina Fang, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said that China's relationship with ASEAN is seen in these meetings.

“I think there are some reasons for these meetings. One is that Indonesia is the current chairman of ASEAN and the ASEAN summit is coming up. They want to show at the discussion that there is progress regarding Myanmar. Ban Ki-moon and the Thai foreign minister recently visited Burma. China also asked what is happening in Burma. They seem to want to know how they can influence the current situation. What these countries want to do is not just for the ASEAN Summit. I also want to see stability for their businesses in Myanmar. Violence in Burma The air strikes on people who are not involved in the war, including children, have come to many people's minds about what it is possible for Myanmar to do."

"Frankly speaking, Min Aung Hlaing does not own power, he only owns prison."

Phil Robertson, Asia director of Human Rights Watch, a New York-based human rights watchdog, said that the visits of these foreign leaders only benefited the war council.

“It is clear that the immediate benefit goes to the War Council. Because they say it from a propaganda point of view. I would say that the international community is sending these representatives to meet them because they are the legitimate rulers. In fact, the military council is the military leaders who are committing crimes against humanity against the people of Burma. Frankly speaking, Min Aung Hlaing is not in power. He owns a prison. Everyone knows that he is the one who has been indicted in the international court as a leader of the crimes against humanity committed by the Burmese army against the people of Burma. Ban Ki-moon went to meet such a person. And I didn't meet anyone who wasn't from the military. Both Ban Ki-moon and Thailand's foreign minister's visit respect human rights to promote I see that it has done nothing for the restoration of true democracy in Myanmar."

Igor Blazevic, a well-known human rights activist and the director of Educational Initiatives Myanmar, a group that provides training to Myanmar activists, believes that no one benefits from these trips.

"I think that no one, including the military council, benefited from these meetings, especially from Ban Ki-moon's visit. It certainly did not benefit the people. It was like encouraging the military council to continue committing ugly crimes against the people. I don't think Min Aung Hlaing benefited from it either. No one respects him. He cannot ask for anything. It is time for him to fail. But the question is how the international community will treat the military council. This is a really important question. The main thing I say is international. I want to talk mainly about Myanmar's neighboring countries."

International affairs professor Krista Fang said she thinks these kinds of meetings should exist.

“We cannot expect much from the meeting. But I think those who care about what might happen need to at least start talking about some kind of compromise dialogue during this period. I think it's important to have meetings like this, although I shouldn't be too optimistic that things will be better tomorrow. Because no one knows when and what can be done. If you don't try, nothing will happen. Although nothing has happened in the meetings now, it is important to try to continue such meetings."

Igor Blazevic, the director of the Scientific Pioneer Group, said that although there are criticisms that do not look good on the meetings of these leaders, and he himself does not look good on these meetings, the victory of the Burmese people will come soon.

He also said that the struggle of the Burmese people is very serious and honorable, and that the Burmese people are heroes.

Bangladesh minister hopes for Rohingyas to return home

Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Abdul Momen said on April 25 that he hoped the Rohingyas would return to their native areas.

Regarding this issue, they met with the Chinese special representative in recent days and expressed their hope that the Rohingyas will be able to return to their homeland with dignity. Abdul Momen said that China has really effectively helped the Rohingyas to return home.

When asked if he thinks that the repatriation of Rohingyas can be started soon, It hasn't actually happened yet, and he can't say it now. He said that he had tried twice before but had no success.

At the same time, Abdul Momen said that China has facilitated discussions between Bangladesh and Myanmar regarding the Rohingya issue.

On the military council's side, more than 200 Rohingya families sheltering in refugee camps in Bangladesh. On April 5, Myanmar Light newspaper reported that more than 700 people are scheduled to be readmitted.

According to the verification of the population household lists sent by Bangladesh, there are more than 56,000 people who have proof of living in Myanmar. It also said that more than 30,000 people without identity and more than 900 people on the Ministry of Interior's terror list have been found, totaling more than 87,000.

According to the negotiations between the two countries, more than 700 of these Rohingyas have agreed to be readmitted as a pilot project, so they are set to be readmitted, and more than 400 of their related family members are also under scrutiny.

The Rohingya to resettle them in their original place. They refuse to return without guarantees such as citizenship and freedom of movement.

Rakhine Army AA will continue to support the CDF Army

The AA Alpha (3) military region said that Rakhine Army AA will continue to stand as a good neighbor and help the Chin Defense Force CDF, which is in a fierce battle with the military council.

On April 25, 2023, to commemorate the two-year anniversary of the establishment of the CDF Army, AA Alpha (3) military region sent a message.

Rakhine Army AA has been the best standing as a revolutionary partner organization since the establishment of CDF Army for more than two years and will continue to help.

RFA is still contacting AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha to find out the position of Rakhine Army AA.

In the two years since the military coup, 55 soldiers of the Defense Forces have lost their lives due to the fighting between the Military Council Army and the CDF Min Army.

The two-year anniversary of the establishment of the CDF Army was celebrated by the Defense Forces, including the National Unity Government NUG. Various revolutionary organizations sent congratulatory messages.

The Rakhine Army AA gave military training to 30 members of the CDF Army.

On April 25, the CDF Min Tug announced that more than 450 soldiers of the Military Council were killed in Min Tug Township during the two years of resistance against the military dictatorship.

U.S. experts “Korea and the U.S. will form a ‘nuclear planning group (NPG)’ to strengthen extended deterrence”

Anchor : American experts predicted that Korea and the US could form a ' ROK-US Nuclear Planning Group ' to reflect the voice of Korea in the planning stage to strengthen extended deterrence through this summit . Reporter Lee Sang-min reports . Ahead of the summit between US President Joe Biden and Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, which will be held at the White House on the 26th , the biggest interest is the so-called ' what is a new, more effective and strengthened expansion deterrence plan ' . Kim Eun-hye, senior secretary for public relations at the Office of the President of the Republic of Korea, said on the 24th that she would publish a separate document containing the extended deterrence plan as a result of the Korea-US summit . Previously, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also announced that a separate joint statement on extended deterrence would be issued at the Korea-US summit that day. I think it will send a signal,” he said. However, former US Ambassador to Korea Robert Rapson told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 25th .

Said that despite these remarks and setting the tone prior to the summit, he did not expect dramatic changes in the US extended deterrence policy and its application in South Korea . Instead, the United States will enhance , expand, or upgrade extended deterrence dialogue and engagement

with South Korea in addition to the already strong training and deployment of strategic assets in response to North Korea's escalating threats and provocations, the former acting ambassador Rapson said. It is predicted that there is a high possibility that the focus will be on doing it .   

He said that if South Korea wanted to call this new framework something like the ' Nuclear Planning Group,' the United States would be flexible enough to do so . However, he said that the adoption of a NATO- like nuclear sharing arrangement or the redeployment of US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula did not seem to be the way the US was thinking . NATO nuclear sharing is the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States on the territories of NATO allies in Europe, the participation of NATO allies in nuclear programs through ' Nuclear Planning Groups ' , and the use of European allies' air planes as a means of attacking nuclear weapons at their targets. says that However, NATO allies do not have ownership, determination or veto power over US tactical nuclear weapons. Robert Superb, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, also spoke with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the same day.

He expressed skepticism, saying that he would be very surprised if nuclear sharing was included among the measures to strengthen extended deterrence to be discussed at the Korea-US summit .

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Super explained the reason, saying that President Biden wants to reduce the role of nuclear weapons as much as possible .

Patrick Cronin, Chair of Asian Security at the Hudson Institute in the US, told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 25th that the leaders of the ROK and the U.S. are promoting alliance solidarity by elevating South Korea's influence in collective defense planning above all else in relation to extended deterrence. expected to show . This is so-called ' Korean-style nuclear sharing ,' as

it is called in Korea, and allows Korea to have a louder voice at the nuclear planning stage, Cronin explained .  

He said that South Korea wants their voices to be reflected in command, control , and consultation in the event of a potential emergency and nuclear use . Previously, Cho Tae - yong, head of the National Security Office of the Presidential Office of the Republic of Korea, said at an event commemorating the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance held at a research institute on March 9 , when he was then the US Ambassador to Korea, that it was important for Korea's voice to be institutionally reflected in the process of extended deterrence. there is

Ambassador Cho Tae -yong : I hope that Korean voices will change institutionally in the process of extended deterrence. I think this is very important. This is because it can send a strong message to the North Korean leadership to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to reassure South Koreans who are facing a serious threat from North Korea's nuclear weapons. Former US Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris told Radio Free Asia (RFA) that day that President Biden would make clear to President Yoon the unshakable commitment of the United States to the defense of Korea, including a strong statement on extended deterrence ( I foresaw that consultation and coordination would take place . Meanwhile , Jennifer Linde, a professor at Dartmouth College who has been in favor of South Korea's nuclear armament, told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 25th that it is understandable that the ROK-US alliance is discussing ways to improve deterrence amid the escalating threat from North Korea. . As an option, he suggested a new consultative body , redeployment of US nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula , nuclear sharing ,

He argued that South Koreans will ultimately decide how they feel threatened , whether they want to change their security posture , and which option is best . Reporter Lee Sang-min , Editor Park Jeong-woo , Web Team Lee Kyung-ha (RFA)

U.S. Experts “The Korea-U.S. Summit Inevitably Affects Korea-China-Korea-Russia Relations”

Anchor : While Korean President Seok-Yeol Yoon, who was on a state visit to the United States, is about to hold a summit with US President Joe Biden, experts on the Korean Peninsula in the United States predicted that the outcome of the summit would have a significant impact on Korea-China and Korea- Russia relations .

In addition, experts predicted that the new Cold War structure between Korea, the US, Japan, North Korea, China and Russia would deepen even more as the ROK-US summit is expected to strengthen the trilateral cooperation between the US and Japan .  

This is reporter Han Deok-in on the sidewalk.

Potential escalation of Korea-China conflict after the summit

The Korea- US summit will be held in Washington on the 26th to mark the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance.

The key issues of this summit are the North Korean issue, South Korea and the United States' policies toward China and Russia, multilateralism, and strengthening cooperation in the fields of military and advanced security technologies.

Among experts on the Korean Peninsula in the United States, with the Korea-US summit just around the corner, the discussion is postponed to issues that have virtually been confirmed, and prospects are raised that this summit will have a considerable impact on Korea and China , and between Korea and Russia as a result .

Robert A. Manning , Distinguished Fellow of the Stimson Center, a private research institute in Washington, USA, said at the Korea-US summit coming to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 21st , “ Korea is in a difficult situation in relation to China in particular. ” .  _

He predicted that various topics that check China's efforts to become the center of the global order through strengthened cooperation between Korea and the United States at this summit will have a great impact on Korea-China relations. “In particular, the Taiwan issue will definitely be included on the agenda , Any comments about Taiwan that come out can affect Korea-China relations, ” he said .

Researcher Manning also predicted that technology-related supply chain security is one of the main agendas between Korea and the US, and support for Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, is likely to be discussed in large part with Korea.

Frank Aum, a senior researcher at the US Institute for Peace (USIP), also explained to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 24th that the United States wants Korea to actively participate in strengthening pressure on China.

However , he added that the South Korean government was hesitant to participate in public pressure because of the possibility of China's retaliation against its economy and China's far-reaching influence on North Korea .

He said that at this meeting, the US and South Korean leaders “ discuss ways to continue the Biden administration’s efforts to block China’s access to key high-tech and semiconductor industries while not adversely affecting the Korean semiconductor industry, which is heavily dependent on Chinese investment.” I will do it ” , he said . .

In addition, Researcher Eom added that he expects to discuss how to involve Korea more deeply than now in other multilateral organizations, including the US-led security consultative body ' Quad ' for the purpose of containing China .  

David Maxwell, a senior researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) in the United States, told RFA on the 21st that “ Korea and the United States are democracies based on the belief that they want to protect the principle-based international order . ” He said he expects to express his will against them .

[ David Maxwell ] The United States and South Korea need to discuss friction with China and Russia . Strategic competition with them is an issue between authoritarian countries and democratic countries based on the rule of law .

He said, “ This tension will cause problems , ” and “ Korea, in particular, has the United States as its security partner , but it still maintains relations with China, its largest trading partner, so it is very vulnerable in the framework of strategic competition . ” I did .

Meanwhile, Joshua Fitt, a researcher at the Center for New American Security (CNAS) Indo-Pacific Program, told Radio Free Asia on the 25th , “ The summit will be held in an atmosphere of cooperation , friendship , and celebration in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance . He said that he believes that the summit will focus on finding and expanding consensus for cooperation ( synergy ) rather than emphasizing differences . ”

Researcher Pitt pointed out that “ the strategic thinking gap between Seoul and Washington is shrinking in response to China’s challenge, ” but at this summit , the ROK and the United States “ remain focused on mutual cooperation based on the plans set out in each country’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy rather than focusing on China.” We expect to focus on the possibility of cooperation . ”

Such initiatives could also include cooperation in defense support for Ukraine and a trilateral relationship between South Korea, the US and Japan, he explained.

Experts on the Korean Peninsula in Washington said that the Korea-U.S. summit could weaken South Korea's economic dependence on China through improved supply chain resilience and economic cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea, which could lead to closer cooperation between Korea and the U.S., but China also I predicted that I would not just watch this situation idly .  

It is also pointed out that the North Korean issue is focused only on the deterrence aspect.

Experts differ in their views on the level of discussion on the North Korean issue at this Korea-US summit.

Special Researcher Robert Manning said, “ The main strategic focus of the ROK-US alliance is still North Korea, ” and predicted, “ Measures to continue strengthening trilateral security , information, and economic security cooperation between South Korea , the US and Japan will be a key topic . ”

Researcher Manning said, “ North Korea is the most immediate challenge facing South Korea, ” presuming that “ there is a growing distrust of US extended deterrence in South Korea amid the growing threat from North Korea . ”

In addition, he said, " President Yoon will want to secure guarantees for US extended deterrence and measures to strengthen the ROK-US alliance, " adding that the summit will focus on the North Korean nuclear issue and overall security issues regarding extended deterrence. .

On the other hand, researcher Frank Um said, “ Now, unlike in the past, the US and South Korea are not willing to make too many concessions in terms of promoting engagement ( with North Korea ) , and are mainly focusing on the deterrence aspect, so the focus on North Korea will be less than before. ” was expected .

Researcher Um predicted that it is highly likely that discussions on strengthening deterrence against North Korea will take precedence over conciliation at this summit. I emphasized that

Researcher Joshua Pitt pointed out that North Korea remains a serious security threat and destabilizer in the Indo-Pacific region, and despite having a record year with an unprecedented number of missile launches, the United States has not made it a priority .

Therefore, the US position on North Korea was evaluated as a situation in which the ROK and the US continue their efforts to strengthen extended deterrence as North Korea has rejected and ignored the US proposal for dialogue.

Possibility of strengthening new Cold War structure after Korea-US summit

Some experts predict that this summit will further visualize the so-called new Cold War structure in which South Korea, the United States , Japan versus North Korea , China , and Russia are more confrontational .  

In fact, China and Russia have raised sharp criticisms of President Yoon's position on the Taiwan issue and Ukraine's arms support.

In the midst of this, North Korea, which has tightly closed its borders in recent years, is the first to bring a Chinese ambassador to the country, and is known to have exchanged arms and food with Russia .

In this regard , researcher Robert Manning evaluated the strategic competition between the US and China as a factor that Korea's foreign policy should continue to adjust . He also argued that it is important for the government to stand up proudly for the value of doing ' the right thing ' . ” .

As such, some suggest that the Korea-US summit was actually prepared as a venue to solidify the Korea-US-Japan alliance for the purpose of containing China and Russia.

In the end, depending on how efficiently the two countries coordinate current issues at this Korea-US summit, the outcome of the summit is expected to have a considerable impact on the Korean Peninsula and throughout East Asia .