China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce have both announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9th to 12th, during which he will hold high-level economic and trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, marking the official resumption of economic and trade dialogue between the two countries. Both Chinese and American scholars believe that expectations for these talks should be low.
This meeting represents a significant engagement between the two sides amidst the current trade tensions. China's Ministry of Commerce noted that senior US officials have recently sent signals to China through various channels, expressing their desire to engage in dialogue on issues such as tariffs. The Ministry stated that after careful evaluation and taking into full consideration global expectations, China's interests, and the demands of US businesses and consumers, China has decided to engage with the US.
Wendy Cutler, former deputy U.S. trade representative and vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), a Washington-based think tank, told CNN Business that the weekend talks will be an important development in the current trade war, but that expectations should be "moderate because they are only the first step in a long process that is inherently complicated by a lack of mutual trust between China and the U.S. and fundamental differences in their views on trade enforcement."
Scholars warn: Don't expect too much from the "He Bei meeting"
Chinese scholar Zhang Li believes that the contact between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant was only the first in a lengthy negotiation between the two governments. He told Radio Free Asia on Wednesday (7th) that while China has opened the door to negotiations, it is currently merely "contact." "Not long ago, Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant met quietly in the United States. With He Lifeng and Bessant in Switzerland as a sign, China and the United States have launched a new round of trade negotiations. Most people outside China are optimistic about future Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, believing that under Trump's tariff hammer, China and the United States may reach a new agreement, but I don't think so."
Chinese Premier He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Chinese leader in the current China-US economic and trade negotiations, met with Bessant in Switzerland this time, marking the first formal resumption of dialogue between the two sides since the suspension of the high-level economic and trade communication mechanism in 2020.
According to Bessant, he discovered the Chinese delegation would also be visiting Europe while preparing to travel to Switzerland for negotiations with the Swiss government. He did not elaborate on which side had called first to arrange the talks. He emphasized that the United States does not seek decoupling, but rather seeks to promote fair trade, and that the main purpose of this meeting was to "de-escalate tensions."
Zhang Li, who is closely following the Sino-US trade war, said he believes the US-China trade negotiations still have a long way to go before reaching an agreement: "China and the US are likely to engage in protracted negotiations over fentanyl, tariffs, chips, and trade imbalances. These protracted negotiations could last throughout the Trump administration, leading to a sustained trade war between China and the US, which is also a characteristic of the new Cold War between China and the US."
The shadow of the trade war still looms, and negotiations may be protracted.
Another Guizhou scholar, Mr. Yang, also believes that the next four years will see a relationship between China and the United States characterized by both decoupling and confrontation. He told this station, "The meeting between He Lifeng and Bessant in Switzerland marks the beginning of formal tariff negotiations between China and the United States. The two sides will debate and lay the groundwork for the trade conflict, but the outside world should not hold high hopes for these initial talks. Over the next four years, China-US negotiations will primarily revolve around a combination of decoupling, confrontation, and crisis management."
Despite China's agreement to engage, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce emphasized that dialogue must be based on the principles of "mutual respect, equal consultation, and mutual benefit," and warned, "If you want a fight, we'll fight to the end; if you want talks, the door is open." China stated that it would not accept any agreement that "uses talks to incite pressure" or compromises its principles.
Since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, both sides have imposed punitive tariffs on each other, profoundly impacting the trade structure and investment environment. Although the "Phase One Trade Agreement" signed by the two countries in 2020 temporarily eased tensions, Sino-US economic and trade relations remain volatile due to US accusations that China has not fully fulfilled its procurement commitments and China's retaliation against US high-tech products. This high-level meeting between China and the US is seen as the first face-to-face contact between the Trump administration's new fiscal team and China, sending a positive but cautious signal for the next phase of bilateral economic and trade relations.
Domestic politics influence external negotiations; scholars point to China's unclear direction
Wang Ji, a scholar who follows the Sino-US trade war, said in an interview with this station that he is not optimistic about the outcome of the US-China trade talks because the domestic political environment is not conducive to the negotiations. He analyzed the negotiations from another perspective: "The domestic political atmosphere and the personnel arrangements at the top are so fierce. Before the struggle is resolved, diplomatic negotiations may not have a clear direction. When the domestic political struggle is so intense, where will the current boss (leader) go? Will he 'kneel' or 'not kneel'? I am not optimistic about the prospects. Because if domestic problems are not properly resolved, diplomatic issues usually will not have a result. This was also the case in China in the past. Before the struggle was resolved, Mao Zedong would not consider improving relations with the United States."
According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, He Lifeng will travel to France after his visit to Switzerland to co-chair the 10th China-France High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 to 16. It is believed that this trip is not only about engaging with the US, but also about seeking to consolidate China's voice in the global economic landscape through multilateral cooperation.
